What If All Football Teams Were Independent?

Chip Kelly recently said something recently that many of us had said for years. He mentioned that all major football programs should be independent like Notre Dame. That concept should have universal support and is something that many of us have been asking to happen for a long time. There is absolutely no reason to not do this and I have outlined below how it could work...

If you took the top 80 college football programs in the country and separated them into 16 regional pods of 5 those would be teams that always play each other. Additionally, you would have one rivalry that was outside of their pod for a locked opponent. Then you could have one rival from the next 80 for one Tier 2 game per school. Each team would have 6 locked opponents every year this way and the other 6 would rotate every year. Every team in the top 80 would play 11 games against other top 80 teams. Right now, less than half of P5 teams play 10 games against the Power 5 (which is essentially what the top 80 would be). Better games and better chance at protecting regional rivalries under this scenario. The top 80 would play for the national championship each year and the next 80 would play for a chance to make the top 80 the following year. EVERY GAME COUNTS under this scenario.

The top 80 would be chosen by their tv viewership under the initial model. Below is 16 regional pods of 5 featuring this top 80. Western Kentucky (78) and UTSA (79) were replaced by SMU (83) and Vanderbilt (82) to avoid any current Power 5 from being left out of the initial top 80 teams. In parenthesis is each teams non-pod rivalry and rival from the next 80. The next 80 are the current remaining FBS teams, teams that made the FCS playoffs, and the FCS schools with the largest stadiums. This division would be known as 1-AA, while the top 80 would be 1-A.

Pod 1

Alabama (LSU) (UAB)

Auburn (Georgia Tech) (South Alabama)

Houston (TCU) (Sam Houston)

Rice (Texas A&M) (Texas State)

SMU (Baylor) (Louisiana Monroe)

Pod 2

Florida (Georgia) (Georgia Southern)

Florida State (Clemson) (Jacksonville State)

Miami (Boston College) (Miami Ohio)

UCF (Colorado State) (Florida International)

USF (Tulane) (Florida Atlantic)

Pod 3

Georgia (Florida) (Troy)

Georgia Tech (Auburn) (Georgia State)

Tennessee (South Carolina) (Middle Tennessee)

Memphis (Mississippi) (Mercer)

Vanderbilt (Army) (Chattanooga)

Pod 4

Michigan (Ohio State) (Central Michigan)

Michigan State (Penn State) (Eastern Michigan)

Minnesota (Iowa) (Western Michigan)

Wisconsin (Illinois) (Youngstown State)

Northwestern (Purdue) (Southern Illinois)

Pod 5

Ohio State (Michigan) (Toledo)

Cincinnati (Rutgers) (Ohio)

Navy (Maryland) (Air Force)

Army (Vanderbilt) (Albany)

Louisville (Kentucky) (Bowling Green)

Pod 6

Texas (Oklahoma) (UTSA)

Texas A&M (Rice) (UTEP)

TCU (Houston) (Delaware)

Texas Tech (Colorado) (Texas Southern)

Baylor (SMU) (North Texas)

Pod 7

Notre Dame (Southern Cal) (Ball State)

Indiana (Duke) (Kent State)

Purdue (Northwestern) (Villanova)

Illinois (Wisconsin) (Northern Illinois)

Kentucky (Louisville) (Western Kentucky)

Pod 8

Arkansas (Kansas) (Arkansas State)

LSU (Alabama) (Louisiana Tech)

Mississippi (Memphis) (Southern Mississippi)

Mississippi State (Missouri) (Mississippi Valley State)

Tulane (USF) (Louisiana)

Pod 9

California (Washington) (Fresno State)

San Jose State (Boise State) (San Diego State)

Southern California (Notre Dame) (Hawaii)

Stanford (Arizona State) (Yale)

UCLA (Oregon) (Sacramento State)

Pod 10

Colorado (Texas Tech) (Jackson State)

Colorado State (UCF) (Wyoming)

Oklahoma (Texas) (Tulsa)

Oklahoma State (Iowa State) (Lafayette)

Nebraska (Kansas State) (Nicholls)

Pod 11

Oregon (UCLA) (Gardner-Webb)

Oregon State (Arizona) (Austin Peay)

UNLV (BYU) (Nevada)

Washington (California) (Harvard)

Washington State (Utah) (Penn)

Pod 12

Iowa (Minnesota) (Drake)

Iowa State (Oklahoma State) (Montana State)

Kansas (Arkansas) (North Dakota State)

Kansas State (Nebraska) (South Dakota State)

Missouri (Mississippi State) (South Dakota)

Pod 13

Maryland (Navy) (Liberty)

Virginia (North Carolina) (James Madison)

Virginia Tech (Syracuse) (Old Dominion)

Wake Forest (NC State) (Appalachian State)

West Virginia (Pittsburgh) (Marshall)

Pod 14

Clemson (Florida State) (Furman)

South Carolina (Tennessee) (Coastal Carolina)

Duke (Indiana) (Richmond)

North Carolina (Virginia) (East Carolina)

North Carolina State (Wake Forest) (Charlotte)

Pod 15 

Boston College (Miami) (UMASS)

Penn State (Michigan State) (Temple)

Pittsburgh (West Virginia) (Akron)

Rutgers (Cincinnati) (UCONN)

Syracuse (Virginia Tech) (Buffalo)

Pod 16

Arizona (Oregon State) (New Mexico)

Arizona State (Stanford) (New Mexico State)

Boise State (San Jose State) (Idaho)

BYU (UNLV) (Montana)

Utah (Washington State) (Utah State)

Under this scenario Florida State's 6 locked opponents would be Florida, Miami, UCF, USF, Clemson, and Jacksonville State. Protecting all of the schools main rivals and giving exciting matchups in USF and UCF that we don't get to see every year, but should. The other 6 opponents would change each year.

Here is how they would find the other 6 opponents. One random opponent will be selected each year for one opponent. Two pods will be randomly paired together each year to form the conference for that year for the other. If your out of conference rival ends up in your conference, then you get a second random game that year to make up for the missing game. The top team in each conference will get a home playoff game and the second place team in each conference will get a road playoff game. 8 conferences, 16 team playoff. More on relegation and promotion will come later in this post...For now, just think of the prospect of 8 corporately sponsored conferences that change each year. Inifinitely more money for those schools. We get excited about 60 million per school in the big two conferences, but each school easily takes home 100 million from the conferences that are sponsored. Think of how much each sponsorship would go for. Allstate, State Farm etc. would pay crazy money to have their name on a conference each week. Let's not lie to ourselves anymore about it being all about money. Let's capitalize on it. Here is how the conferences could look...

Allstate Conference

Alabama

Auburn

Florida

Florida State

Houston

Miami

Rice

SMU

UCF

USF

AT&T Conference

Arizona

Arizona State

Boise State

BYU

California

San Jose State

Southern Cal

Stanford 

UCLA

Utah

Capital One Conference

Boston College

Clemson

Duke

North Carolina

North Carolina State

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

South Carolina

Syracuse

Cheez-It Conference

Maryland

Oregon

Oregon State

UNLV

Virginia

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Washington

Washington State

West Virginia

Chic-Fil-A Conference

Georgia 

Georgia Tech

Iowa

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Memphis

Missouri

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Dr. Pepper Conference

Arkansas

Colorado

Colorado State

LSU

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Nebraska

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Tulane

Ticketmaster Conference

Army

Cincinnati

Louisville

Michigan

Michigan State

Minnesota

Navy

Northwestern

Ohio State

Wisconsin

VRBO Conference

Baylor

Illinois

Indiana

Kentucky

Notre Dame

Purdue

TCU

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

This would be Florida State's Schedule

v. Clemson

@ Jacksonville State

@ Houston

v. UCF

@ Alabama

v. Auburn

@ Miami

v. Rice

@ SMU

v. Colorado

@ USF

v. Florida

The playoffs would be decided on the field. Top team in each conference gets a home playoff game. The second place team in each conference would be the road team. Final standings would be based on conference record. Overall record would be the first tie-breaker. Head to head would be the second tie-breaker. Third tie-breaker (if more than 2 teams tied) would be opponent winning percentage. The potential playoff 1st round would be

Oregon @ Florida State

Missouri @ Texas

Clemson @ Michigan

Southern Cal @ Mississippi

Oklahoma @ Utah

Ohio State @ Penn State

Notre Dame @ Georgia

Alabama @ Washington

The 2nd round, semis, and championship would take place at the classic bowl game settings they have always been held at. Teams would really have something to play for and it would be clear-cut who made it. Now comes the part where all the games matter....

That's right under this scenario you could make even the seemingly irrelevant game matter a great deal. Because the bottom two teams in each conference could be threatened with relegation. The top two in each 1AA conference would get to challenge a bottom two team from a 1A conference. For insance Liberty would have the opportunity to take one of the top 80 spots and have a shot at a national championship the following year. You could have Liberty v. Vanderbilt with a chance to be in the highest tier on the line. Suddenly a game without meaning has a ton of meaning.

Suddenly, all the games would have meaning again. Every school would make more money. It would not affect the other sports. All schools would have a fair shot. A whole lot better than making the sport more like figure skating. Football would once again be decided on the field and not be a committee.

2016-2017 NCAA Football Predictions

Another glorious football season is upon us. Fall is practically here and our favorite sport will be played before you know it. Since it is so close, that can only mean that it is prediction time again. So my predictions for the 2016-2017 football season are what this entry is all about. Last week, I focused on ACC predictions and this week it will focus on the national predictions as a whole

After another championship run, most people are on the Alabama bandwagon, but not this guy. Despite their manageable schedule and incredible amount of talent returning, they are losing more than people realize and it is very difficult to repeat. Something can and will go wrong for the Tide. Who does that leave us to compete? Let's start with some teams that nobody is talking about that could have an impact on the College Football Playoff that I have outside of my playoff and most people have outside their top 10 teams.

The Darkhorse Teams

5. Utah Utes
The Pac 12 seems wide open, especially in the South. That opens the door for defending South co-champ Utah, a team nobody is talking about. Utah has their offensive line returning and most of their defense. A defense that typically is one of the best in the Pac 12. I am not sold on UCLA and should the Bruins stumble, that opens the door for a talented Utah team to play for the Pac title. These defending champs are not getting nearly enough credit as most outlets have them outside the top 25.

4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
As mentioned in the ACC preview, nobody is talking about the yellow jackets. Nobody! Now, they won't win the ACC, but they will be much improved over last year's team in my opinion and will make a mark in the top 25. They are being picked near the bottom, so they are definitely a darkhorse to do some damage in my view.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Picked by many outlets to finish 3rd in the Big 12, I can easily see the Cowboys winning the Big 12 and crashing the college football playoff. The Cowboys won 10 games last year and have 16 starters back including their QB. Honestly, I am shocked that they are not being talked about more. 9 wins seems a lock and 10+ is a near lock. Road Trips to TCU and Oklahoma could be all that is standing in OK State's way of making a playoff bid.

2. Kentucky Wildcats
The Kentucky Wildcats have fallen short of a bowl bid the past few seasons with 5-7 finishes. This year will be different. They are picked to finish 4th in the SEC East at best and lower in some outlets. However, these guys can finally start to rise up the ladder in the SEC this season. They now boast the brilliant offensive staff from Cincinnati and they have the overwhelming majority of their offensive starters returning. Additionally, they get to play South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State at home this year. The Wildcats will go to their first bowl game since 2010 this season, the question is how good of a bowl game it will be.

1. Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers are predicted to finish 3rd in the Big 10 West. They are predicted 30th overall. These guys are predicted to not be a factor at all, but they are a powerhouse. They do lose a QB and a defensive coordinator, but they are in a wide open Big 10 West. Good Wisconsin teams are really known for grueling offensive lines and they return 7 offensive lineman with starting experience. Their starting runningback, Corey Clement, is also back after missing most of last season due to injury. A healthy Clement behind an experienced offensive line should make the Badgers running game quite formidable again in 2016. The running game lacking last year is a reason the program dropped off a bit last year, but it won't be an issue in 2016. We can find out early how formidable Wisconsin is with a Week 1 match-up against LSU. Should they win that one, the Badgers are a legit playoff threat.

5 Burning Questions Around the Country

5. Does the Big 12 get a playoff bid?
Short answer to this question is no, but I will give a longer answer. Oklahoma is strongly favored in the Big 12, but they likely won't go undefeated in conference doing so. They have non-conference games against Houston and Ohio State as well. This information leads you to believe that the Sooners will lose at least 2 games and the Big 12 will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. No conference championship game hurts the conference a lot and unless Oklahoma or Texas have an equal or better resume than other contenders they will be left out. Other Big 12 teams won't get as much benefit of the doubt as Oklahoma or Texas and will have to have resumes much better than other contenders to get in.

4. Is Tennessee The Favorite In the SEC East?
Most are predicting Tennessee around the country, but I just don't see it the more I look. As bad as the SEC East is, Georgia is better than Tennessee. Kirby Smart is a better coach than Butch Davis and Tennessee has to play Alabama. I just can't see Tennessee besting Georgia in the East.

3. Can Michigan State reload quickly?
Michigan State has been one of the most consistently great teams in college football. They have been excellent for several years now. Last season they parlayed their success into a college football playoff berth. However, this season they lost two starters on the offensive line including one of their best offensive lineman in school history (Jack Conklin), their number 1 receiver, and one of the best quarterbacks in school history (Connor Cook). Are 5 returning starters on defense enough to keep them in the race in a tough Eastern division?
They could be a factor, but I'd expect them no better than 3rd with Michigan and Ohio State in the mix.

2. How Much Will Washington Breakout?

Washington looks like they are headed in the right direction and they are trending upward. How far upward though? Are they contending for a division title, winning their division, or winning their conference?
You will see shortly that I am bullish on the Huskies and expect them to win the Pac. They are a team I expect to make a lot of noise in 2016. Their excellent coach Chris Peterson is a big reason why.

1. Will Texas take a step forward in 2016?
Texas is a team that many people are unsure of this season. It seems they have some talent now in place and could take a leap forward under Charlie Strong. Most people are predicting around 7 wins for the Longhorns and a finish around 50 in the country. My prediction is that they will take a step forward and win 8 or 9 games. They will finish 4th in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU.

10 Teams Most Likely to Win the Title

10. Louisville Cardinals

Louisville edges out Houston for my #10 team most likely to win the title. Houston will also have a shot, but has a tough nonconference schedule and is still a Group of 5 team. There is a lot for Houston to overcome, but they will be formidable and likely win the American Conference. Houston needs to run the table to get in tough and Louisville can get in with one loss if they win the ACC. I do not expect Louisville to beat either FSU, or Clemson, but it is possible. The #1 thing working in Louisville's favor is that they get FSU early and on short rest @ home.

9. Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State has a lot of pieces to replace, but as much as I do not like him, Urban Meyer is a winner. Additionally, Ohio State is a powerhouse program that reloads. They very well could compete for a title again in 2016.

8. Oklahoma Sooners

Winning the Big 12 would get them in the conversation. I think they fall just short, but they certainly have the talent to win it all. They have to have better resumes than the other conference champs due to no conference title game. The name brand doesn't hurt them like other big 12 schools though.

7. Stanford Cardinal

The most consistent Pac 12 team with one of the best coaches and best players in the nation certainly deserves mention. I expect them to finish 2nd to another Pac 12 school, but would not be surprised if they won the Pac.

6. Michigan Wolverines

I am picking Michigan to win the Big 10, but believe they will lose to either the SEC or ACC Champ. Getting to the playoff vaults them up the list.

5. Washington Huskies

Take what I said to Michigan, but apply it to the Pac 12. I do believe though that these guys are going to be a force this year. This is my ultimate sleeper and they will be a major threat to the national title.

4. Clemson Tigers

I expect the Tigers to be left out of the playoffs, but they could easily not only get in, but win it all. These guys are super talented and DeShaun Watson is an incredible player. Don't be shocked if they win it all. That Clemson-FSU game is the game of the year.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

I am picking LSU over Alabama and that seems blasphemous. Alabama has been the class of college football this decade. They have won 4 of 7 National Championships. It would surprise nobody if they won again this year. I suspect they will fall short having to replace some key pieces. Just remember though that Alabama does not rebuild they reload. This school has incredible athletes.

2. LSU Tigers

Behind one of the best players in the nation, LSU will be back in 2016. They will compete and could easily win the national championship. Do not let it surprise you if they pull it off.

1. Florida State Seminoles

Florida State is returning every single offensive starter from 2016 including the explosive Dalvin Cook. Every single starter from one of the most talented rosters in the country. From a team that went to a New Years 6 bowl and had Clemson on the ropes last year on the road. They get Clemson on the road and have the opportunity to make a statement against the SEC in Week 1. Florida State is my pick to win the national championship and I love their roster. Their coach is not too shabby either!

The Playoff Teams
This is not just the same as the teams most likely to win. I expect the ACC or SEC Champion to take home the crown, but only one team from each league will likely make the playoffs. It has only been conference champions to date, and I expect that trend to continue.

4. Michigan Wolverines

3. Washington Huskies

2. LSU Tigers

1. Florida State Seminoles
I told you what I thought would happen in the previous section, but still thought you should see the actual playoff teams I am predicting. I believe that FSU will win it all! It would not surprise me to see either 2 ACC teams or 2 SEC teams depending on their records. I would be shocked though if either conference is left out of the playoffs. Due to the depth at the top of each, they should compete.

5 Best Regular Season Matchups

5. 9/17 Florida State @ Louisville ABC Noon Eastern

4. 9/30 Stanford @ Washington   ESPN 6PM Pacific

3. 11/26 Michigan @ Ohio State

2. 11/5  Alabama @ LSU

1. 10/29 Clemson @ Florida State

5 Best Week 1 Matchups

5. Saturday 9/3 Alabama v. USC (AT&T Stadium) 8PM ET ABC

4. Saturday 9/3 North Carolina v. Georgia (Georgia Dome) 530PM ET ESPN

3. Saturday 9/3 LSU v. Wisconsin (Lambeau Field) 330PM ET ABC

2. Saturday 9/3 Oklahoma v. Houston (NRG Stadium) Noon ET ABC

1. Monday 9/5  Florida State v. Ole Miss (Citrus Bowl) 8 PM ET ESPN

Heisman Darkhorses NOBODY is Talking About

5. Boom Williams      RB     Kentucky
The Kentucky runningback is starting behind an offensive line returning 4 of 5 starters in an offense that is destined to have better play-calling than in the past. Many people will not see it coming, but he will be a contender for the All-SEC team and thus could make a push into the Heisman picture. A favorable schedule by SEC standards helps.

4. John O' Korn    QB    Michigan

O' Korn has not even officially won the job yet. Quarterback is the biggest question on Michigan's roster. So how is he a Heisman darkhorse?
I expect him to be the quarterback in an explosive offense of a team that makes the playoffs. Should Michigan be as good as I think they will be and should he win the job, then he will likely be in the race. The Houston transfer has 34 touchdowns as a college quarterback already and looks to double that amount this season. He very well could be one to watch.

3. James Washington   WR   Oklahoma State
Should Oklahoma State sneak into the playoff picture or make it in, this becomes a real possibility. Washington is predicted to be an All-American by me, but it is possible he can be more. With Mason Rudolph at QB in the offensive friendly Big 12, I expect this offense to be quite explosive. Washington will be the star and could emerge as a Heisman candidate. This certainly could happen. It is just tough for a receiver to receive this honor.

2. Corey Clement   RB   Wisconsin
The talented Clement is back behind a great offensive line and the Badgers are my darkhorse this season so naturally he appears on this list. Most people are not to high on Clement or the Badgers, but an early match-up with LSU can certainly get Clement some early Heisman looks. A breakout game against the Tigers could vault him up the Heisman list.

1. Jake Browning     QB   Washington

There seems to be a trend with the Washington Huskies. There will be much more on Jake Browning to come in this post....

My Heisman Top 5

5. Jake Browning    QB    Washington
You already have seen how high I am on the Washington Huskies this year. I expect them to win the Pac and for Browning to be a major reason why. He will have a breakout year in his second year and look to improve upon his 63% completion percentage. As a freshman, Browning threw for 2,955 yards and I would expect that total to jump over 4,000 in year 2 of Chris Peterson's offense.

4. Baker Mayfield     QB     Oklahoma

Mayfield will be back in the conversation again this season. Expect Oklahoma to be back in the thick of the playoff race, making it likely Mayfield has a strong shot at the award.

3. Christian McCaffrey    RB   Stanford

You could argue that McCaffrey should have won the award last year, and that he is the favorite this year. He certainly is one of the top contenders. It likely will come down to these three backs that have been outstanding, but I have the other two edging him out.

2. Dalvin Cook     RB    Florida State

IMO, Dalvin Cook should have won the award last year. The season he had with that injury and the negative press was otherworldly. This guy is an absolute machine. However, the fact that he was left off so many All-American teams last year and that he was not invited to New York makes me think he will get passed up again. It seems that the voters simply will not vote for him for whatever reason. It is a shame because he will possibly deserve it again, but the numbers will have to be insane for him to get it.

1. Leonard Fournette       RB    LSU

Fournette will be aided by 2 factors
1) LSU will be tremendous this season
2) Dalvin Cook is hated nationally
Those factors + the fact that he is excellent and plays in the SEC is why I predict Fournette to be our next Heisman trophy winner.

Offensive All-Americans

QB Jake Browning     Washington

RB Dalvin Cook           Florida State

RB Leonard Fournette   LSU

WR Calvin Ridley        Alabama

WR James Washington  Oklahoma State

TE Bucky Hodges         Virginia Tech

OT Roderick Johnson  Florida State

OT Cam Robinson        Alabama

OG Billy Price               Ohio State

OG Dan Feeney             Indiana

C  Ethan Pocic               LSU

Defensive All-Americans

DE Jonathan Allen    Alabama

DE Chris Wormley    Michigan

DT Charles Walker   Oklahoma

DT Lowell Lotuleli    Utah

LB Ben Boulware      Clemson

LB Devontae Fields   Louisville

LB Raekwon McMillan Ohio State

CB Desmond King   Iowa

CB Sidney Jones      Washington

S   Derwin James     Florida State

S   Jamal Adams      LSU

Specialist All-Americans

K Andy Phillips          Utah

P  Hayden Hunt          Colorado State 

KR Evan Berry           Tennessee
PR William Likely      Maryland

Coach of The Year

Jimbo Fisher!!!!

Again, Fisher probably should win this award that he has never gotten, just like he has never gotten the ACC Coach of the Year, but he won't. I would actually assume this award will go to Chris Peterson if the Huskies are as good as I think they will be this year. The Huskies making the playoffs should get Peterson to win the award. Should the Oklahoma State Cowboys make it though, Mike Gundy could easily win. 10+ wins down in Texas will win Charlie Strong the award.

It will again be a wonderfully exciting football season indeed.

-Noland

2016-2017 ACC Football Predictions

We are almost there, it is almost football season!!!
It's about time and I am once again excited to watch with my family. Once again, I will be making predictions and getting them written down and doing them the same as last year. 2 college football prediction posts, with the main one next week, and one pro prediction post.

These predictions, will be of what will happen in Florida State's conference and they will be focused on Florida State.  Being honest, Florida State has ran the ACC on the football side since their inclusion in 1992. Even last year in a rebuilding year, FSU took national runner-up Clemson to the wire. A game that FSU could have easily pulled out. Since 1992, FSU has won 15 conference championships out of 23 seasons. That means that 65% of the seasons Florida State has played in the conference, they have won! Incredible! It is even more incredible when you consider that rival Miami has been to 0 conference championship games since joining the conference. With this information, the questions start at who can challenge FSU?

The obvious answer in challenging for the ACC Championship is the Clemson Tigers. Many experts have both Clemson and FSU making the playoff. It seems that the majority feels that it is 50/50 who wins that FSU-Clemson game which is in Tallahassee this year. A strong Louisville team could also challenge. The Seminoles though return every single offensive starter and despite losing #5 overall pick Jalen Ramsey, look to be even better on defense as well. Florida State is locked and loaded for a national championship run. Let's look at the threats in greater detail though.

Biggest Threats to FSU

The top threat is Clemson for obvious reasons. The Tigers return the Heisman favorite and were national runner-up last year. Clemson rolled through the ACC schedule and really only struggled with Florida State on the way to an undefeated regular season. With Watson and many other key players returning, it is easy to see how the Tigers can be National Championship contenders again.

Right behind Clemson and I mean right behind Clemson is a dangerous Louisville Cardinals team. These guys will be the trendy sleeper pick in the conference, but they are no sleeper at all. The Cardinals could easily give the ACC Atlantic 3 Top 10 teams. They could also be so dangerous that they cost the ACC 2 playoff teams and possibly wipe the ACC from the championship picture all together. Playing Louisville on the road early in a 12 pm kickoff as a 3rd game in 19 days terrifies me. If FSU drops a regular season game, this one to me is the most likely. QB Lemar Jackson is a Heisman Trophy sleeper and Louisville absolutely is good enough not just to win the ACC, but the national championship. Louisville is loaded for the 2016 season. Watch out!

ACC Darkhorse

Last year, my dark horse started out 3-0, but then they lost everything, so it has to get better for 2016. Still I will not make an easy pick like Louisville, because as stated earlier, Louisville is not and should not be a dark horse. For my darkhorse to compete in the coastal, I am actually going with Georgia Tech who disappointed in 2015. They were able to knock off Florida State though which shows they still have the chops to make a run. With Justin Thomas returning for his senior season, I could easily see the Jackets competing for a title on the Coastal side. That being said, I believe that the Atlantic is much better than the Coastal this season because of the three teams that I mentioned earlier. The Yellow Jackets though will go bowling at least this season and finish better in the Coastal than their predicted finish which is last in some outlets and 5th or lower in most.

Who Wins the Conference?

As you might expect, I am picking the Seminoles in the ACC. I do realize the threats that the other teams possess, especially Clemson and Louisville, but at the end of the day, Florida State just has too much talent. I think people underestimate the hits Clemson took to the NFL on the defensive line as well. When in doubt, it is prudent to pick the Seminoles anyways as they have won the conference more than 50% of the time since they joined. The Seminoles win the ACC and perhaps the National Championship due to their incredible talent and the amazing job that Jimbo Fisher does with that talent. Florida State looks to have a strong 2016.

5 Questions and Answers

1) How many wins will Mark Richt get in year one at Miami?

Miami will easily start 3-0 before a showdown with Georgia Tech and could be 4-0 before the rivalry contest with Florida State. However, I expect them to drop both of those games and 3 others (Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and one more). That would put Miami at 7-5 and in a winable bowl game. It is possible that Miami finally makes it to an ACC Championship behind brilliant QB play from Brad Kaaya, but don't think he has enough around him to pull it off.

2) Who is the most talented player in conference?

The most talented player in conference may surprise some of you, but not everyone. His name is Derwin James and he is a sophomore safety at Florida State. Derwin started as a true sophomore last year and Jimbo Fisher and co. said he was the best true Freshman they have coached. Given who has come through that program in recent years, that is pretty high praise.

3) How many ACC teams will make the playoff?
It is pretty safe to say that the ACC will get at least one team in the playoff with how strong Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville are supposed to be. The conference should easily get one unless each ends up with a loss or more and the other P5 conferences all have undefeated teams. I don't see that happening in the other P5 conferences though. There is an outside chance of 2 if one of the aforementioned teams loses a close game to the conference champ and finishes with 1 loss while other conference champs have 2+ losses. If I were betting I'd say Florida State makes it and the others miss. It would not surprise me to see either Clemson or Louisville in the playoff though. 

4) Who will be the top newcomer in 2016?
The top new face in the ACC will be FSU QB DeAndre Francois. It is widely expected that Francois will beat out returning starter Sean McGuire and lead the Seminoles on a national championship run. If that does not come to fruition, then I expect the top newcomer to be Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente. The Hokies will be much improved under Fuente's watch.

5) Who will be the most disappointing team in 2016?
The Miami Hurricanes seem to be the perennial ACC team to disappoint. Since joining the conference in 2005, the Hurricanes have failed to even make an ACC Championship game appearance. Anything less than that at this point is still a disappointment. With Georgia Tech coming back into the fold, a talented UNC squad, Pittsburgh emerging and the rebirth of Virginia Tech, I just can't see it for Miami. The Hurricanes could easily finish 4th or 5th in the ACC Coastal.

1st Team All ACC Predictions

Offense

QB Lemar Jackson   Louisville

RB Dalvin Cook       Florida State

RB Elijah Hood        North Carolina

WR Jamari Staples   Louisville

WR Travis Rudolph Florida State

TE Bucky Hodges   Virginia Tech

OT Roderick Johnson Florida State

OT Mitch Hyatt        Clemson

OG Dorian Johnson  Pittsburgh

OG Danny Isidora    Miami

OC Jay Guillermo    Clemson

Defense

DE DeMarcus Walker Florida State
DE Ken Ekanem         Virginia Tech
DT Derrick Nnadi       Florida State
DT BJ Hill                  North Carolina State
LB Ben Boulware       Clemson
LB Devontae Fields    Louisville
LB PJ Davis                Georgia Tech
CB Marquez White     Florida State
CB Trumaine Washington  Louisville
S Derwin James           Florida State
S Quin Blanding          Virginia

Specialists

PK Ricky Aguayo        Florida State

P  Justin Vogel             Miami

KR Artavis Scott         Clemson
PR Bra'Lon Cherry      North Carolina State

Players of the Year

Offensive: Louisville QB Lemar Jackson
Defensive: Florida State S Derwin James
Dalvin Cook should have been player of the year last year, and I believe we will be in a similar position this year. I just can't see the media giving it to him unless his numbers are otherwordly. They just don't want him getting this award and see him as a tainted individual. It is an incredibly wrong perception, but they won't give it to Cook. This award will likely go to Jackson or Watson, but a strong senior season from Justin Thomas could push the award in that direction. Brad Kaaya is another big contender here. James is the best player in the conference on the defensive side and will win the award on that side. His top competition could come from his teammates. Josh Sweat, DeMarcus Walker, and Marquez White will all vie for the award.

Coach of the Year
Jimbo Fisher!!!

Much like I said last year, Fisher will likely deserve the award and not win. This is because that is what happens every year. He has never won ACC Coach of the Year which is a crime for a national champ and a top 5 coach in the country. I believe that Paul Johnson will actually win again, due to Georgia Tech exceeding expectations in 2016 after a disappointing 2015 campaign.

Stay Tuned Next Week for My College Football Preview

- Noland

Looking Back @ Football Predictions 2015

It is important for anybody who makes predictions to go back and truly assess how they did. In this post, I look to do just that for the past football season 2015-2016, before making new predictions for this year. Some of these predictions were pretty accurate, but some were horrifically bad. This seeks to give us some perspective on what I have gotten right and wrong before any predictions are made for the 2016-2017 season. I had four prediction pages for last football season. Last year I had an ACC preview, a preview for the rest of the country, an NFL preview, and a preview of Noles in training camps. Each of those will be looked at in great detail on this post.

Let's start with the Noles in training camps post. This post was the least predicting out of these posts, but was still informative and had some predictions in there. I said that it was put up or shut up time for EJ Manuel in Buffalo and that it was about time for him to win the job. I may have picked him to win Super Bowl MVP in another post (embarassed face) which was by far my worst prediction. Manuel of course was beaten out by Tyrod Taylor and even I think the lofty expectations I (and the Bills) had for him will never be fulfilled at this point. I was too much of a homer in the case of EJ. I will continue to root for the guy though. Sticking with the Bills, injuries forced Karlos Williams into the starting lineup and he exceeded my expectations. This guy did much better than anticipated and had a great rookie season. Another error in this post was not being bullish enough about Devonta Freeman, who ended up in the MVP conversation. He blew everyone away. Finally, Kelvin Benjamin did not start because of the ACL injury, but looks to be strong heading into this season. Everything else in this post is 100% accurate on where they were heading into the 2015-2016 season. You could write pretty much the same stuff for each player heading into 2016-2017, but you will need to include some new teams.

Now onto the NFL season predictions. As bad as the Bills Super Bowl pick was and subsequent EJ Manuel pick as described above, I actually hit on a lot here. You have to forgive me some as well, because the Bills pick was an opportunity pick based partially on the expected suspension of Tom Brady. That suspension was overturned after these selections. I had the Cardinals and Texans winning their respective divisions when few others did. I also had the Cardinals going all the way to the Super Bowl, which possibly could have happened without the Tyrann Mathieu injury. They still made the NFC Championship as I predicted. Three of my bold predictions were right in that Marcus Marriota did not start every game due to injury, the Titans would finish with the #1 pick, and Jameis Winston would be rookie of the year. I was a little too bullish record wise on the Bucs though who I gave 5 extra wins. The Ravens was another big miss for me as they too missed the playoffs. My biggest miss, was probably my continued hope for Sam Bradford. I had him leading the Eagles to a division title and an NFC Championship Game appearance and he again came up short on my expectations. Take out those bullish predictions for Bradford and Manuel and these predictions look solid. Will not make that mistake again for those two. This time I will hope to be wrong in their favor for once. Just keep rooting for the good injury prone guys to catch a break.

The NCAA preview went considerably better for me than the NFL did. I got 2 of the 4 playoff teams correct, including going against the grain and picking Michigan State to win the Big 10 over Ohio State. Nearly everyone had the Buckeyes at least making the playoff while I said the pressure to repeat would eventually catch up to the talented Buckeyes. Another favorite though, TCU, is another team I had in the playoff and they fell short. My worst prediction in here was Arizona winning it all. Yikes! So maybe not so great with the picks. The darkhorses I had were all pretty weak too, especially Georgia Tech, but more on that later.
On the Heisman trophy front, I had weak darkhorses, but my main guys were threats for at least a while other than the injured Wright. The eventual winner, Derrick Henry, was my #3 contender coming into the season. Henry was one of four offensive All-Americans I hit on (using the AP list), the other three were Spencer Drango, Jack Allen and Landon Turner. I hit on three defensive players in A'Shawn Robinson, Jaylen Smith, and Vernon Hargreaves. These numbers were pretty low as I look to hit on half of the picks this upcoming season.

Finally, is the ACC preview I did. I thought it would be interesting to do a preview of the conference FSU is in, and that proved to be true. It comes as no surprise that the Seminoles were my pick to win the conference. That was wrong, but I did say the biggest threats in conference to that happening were Georgia Tech and Clemson. The only regular season losses for FSU were to Georgia Tech and Clemson. Those Jackets really only showed up for the FSU game though unfortunately for them and the conference. Clemson had a very impressive season winning the conference and helping Dabo Swinney to win coach of the year over the ever-deserving Jimbo Fisher. I stated that Jalen Ramsey was the most talented player in the conference and that proved true as he was the #1 player on many teams draft boards a few weeks ago. Ramsey was the #5 overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Now, for how accurate I was picking the all-conference team....
Between not knowing if Dalvin Cook would be eligible and James Connor's injury, I missed on the RBs, but hit on many other positions. I hit on 4 of 11 on the offensive side. Correctly selecting Matt Skura, Landon Turner, Roderick Johnson, and Artavis Scott. On defense I hit on 3 of 11, correctly selecting Jalen Ramsey, Nile Lawrence-Stample, and Stephen Daniels. Some injuries hurt me in other spots including the FSU LB core and Kendall Fuller. The 1st team specialist was also correct as I selected the automatic, Roberto Aguayo. Every one of my selections that was not injured made one of the 3 all conference teams with the exception of Jacoby Brisett, Derwin James and George Campbell, so there is that. My worst selection was certainly Campbell as he barely saw the field in 2015. 8 people correctly selected on the 1st team All-ACC is a number that will improve for 2016.

Stay tuned for more takes on the latest news in sports and of course, more predictions....

-Noland

2015-16 NCAA Football Predictions

Another glorious football season is upon us. Fall is practically here and our favorite sport will be played before you know it. Since it is so close, that can only mean that it is prediction time. So my predictions for the 2015-2016 football season are what this entry is all about.

After their surprising run last season, most people are on Ohio State to win, but not this guy. Despite their incredibly manageable schedule and incredible amount of talent returning, it is just an entirely different animal to repeat. Something can and will go wrong for the Buckeyes. Who does that leave us to compete? Let's start with some teams that nobody is talking about that could have an impact on the College Football Playoff that I have outside of my playoff and most people have outside their top 10 teams.

The Darkhorse Teams

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish lately have seemed to be the team that provides just enough to make you believe they are a contender before eventually fading away. Last year, they had that incredible almost win in Tallahassee where they came closest to ending Florida State's winning streak. They had a lot of injuries late in the year that contributed to their late slide. You better expect this team to compete though and if they lose a game or less, they will be in the hunt.

4. Penn State Nittany Lions
I can't believe I am writing this team as a darkhorse playoff contender a few years after crippling sanctions, but they are just that. Bill O'Brien did a fantastic job keeping this program afloat and was succeeded by another incredible coach in James Franklin. The Nittany Lions have a guy that is arguably the best QB in the country and a lot of returning talent. They also play in a conference that behind the top two teams of Ohio State and Michigan State is fairly weak. The opportunity is there for Penn State with a giant bullseye on Ohio State should Michigan State falter. Do not be shocked if this team surprises the majority of the country.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State demonstrated last year that they have an incredible amount of young talent. They also saw injuries derail part of their season, but were still able to beat rival Oklahoma. The Cowboys return talented QB Mason Rudolph who was able to lead that upset over the Sooners. Perhaps more importantly, the Cowboys get to play Big 12 powers Baylor, Oklahoma, and TCU in Stillwater. Mike Gundy could follow-up his worst season since 2007 with a playoff appearance.

2. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are being talked about by practically nobody to be a player on the national scene, but it is quite possible that they can achieve just that. There is only one legitimate threat in the Coastal division and should they dispose of Virginia Tech and somehow finish 13-0, they have a real legitimate shot at competing for a National Title. Almost the entire Yellow Jacket defense is back and they have 6 starters returning on offense including quarterback Justin Thomas. Do not be surprised if these guys shake up some things nationally and not just in the ACC.

1. Arizona State Sun Devils

USC was picked by practically everyone to be the PAC representative in the College Football Playoff this year. I though had a hard time deciding between two other PAC South teams for the spot. USC to me has a lot of talent, but most of it is overrated as is QB Cody Kessler. Add in that they lost to Boston College last year have a lot to replace up front and I am not a believer. That is especially true when several in conference coaches are superior. One of those superior coaches is Todd Graham who has led Arizona State to 20 wins the last two seasons. This team has a lot of returning talent this season. They do not have their QB returning though which is why I chose another team to represent the conference. However, I am not that concerned because QB Mike Bercovici had three great starts at QB last season.

The Playoff Teams

4. Alabama Crimson Tide

Assuming Coker is the starter, I think that Alabama makes it here despite losing a great deal of talent. He could have the best arm out of any QB Saban has coached. Notice I didn't say be the best QB (although perhaps he will develop into that), but best arm. I am unsure how they will do should Coker not get the nod. If he does not get it, my pick is Auburn to get this last spot.

3. Michigan State Spartans

The Spartans were not far off the playoffs last year and a lot of people seem to forget that they beat trendy pick Baylor in one of the best games in years. They also have a serious amount of talent returning led by QB Connor Cook who I will have more about later. I think the pressure to repeat will be too much for Ohio State and that Michigan State will be the team to take advantage of that.

2. TCU Horned Frogs

This is the one team that everyone else is picking that I agree with. It is hard not to. The coaching and talent for the Horned Frogs are incredibly elite. However, how do they deal with being the favorites all year long, it is a new role for them. Do not be surprised at all if Oklahoma State plays spoiler in the big 12 and knocks either TCU or Baylor out of the championship race. Perhaps, they can knock both teams out and head to the playoff themselves.

1. Arizona Wildcats

The Arizona Wildcats led by Rich Rodriguez are my pick to be National Champions this season. They have 7 returning starters on offense including QB Anu Soloman. They also have all their skill position players returning for Rodriguez's explosive offense. On defense, they have 6 starters returning including All-American Scooby Wright. Do not forget either that these guys beat Oregon by 21 last season @ Oregon. This is a very capable team with a lot of returning talent. 

5 Best Regular Season Matchups

5. 11/7 TCU @ Oklahoma State

4. 11/28 Penn State @ Michigan State

3. 11/27 Baylor @ TCU

2. 11/21 Michigan State @ Ohio State

1. 11/21 Arizona @ Arizona State 

5 Best Week 1 Matchups

5. 11/5 3:30 PM BYU @ Nebraska

4. 11/5 7PM Arizona State v. Texas A&M (NRG Stadium in Houston)

3.11/5 8PM Wisconsin v. Alabama (AT&T Stadium)

2. 11/7 8 PM Ohio State @ Virginia Tech 

1. 11/5 3:30 PM Louisville v. Auburn (Georgia Dome)

Heisman Darkhorses NOBODY is Talking About

5. Mario Pender RB Florida State

Nobody is talking about Mario Pender even at Florida State University, but perhaps they should be. Pender was on a roll before suffering an injury early and would be in line for the majority of the carries should Dalvin Cook be unable to play. Florida State has had a 1,000 yard rusher each of the last three seasons and it isn't something that is likely the change. The question is who gets the most carries. If it is Pender, than he very well could be invited to New York.

4. Mason Rudolph QB Oklahoma State
Should the Cowboys have the season I am expecting and should they knock off multiple Big 12 powerhouses, it will be hard to deny Rudolph the big stage. He is a very capable quarterback with a great quarterback coach. With several favorable matchups in marquee games, he will have plenty of opportunity to shine as well.

3. Jacoby Brissett QB North Carolina State
Last week, I posted in my ACC preview, that Brissett is my selection for ACC Offensive Player of the Year. Should he pull that off, he will likely be a Heisman candidate, especially if he does it in leading the Wolfpack to the ACC Championship.

2. Malik Zaire QB Notre Dame
The talented sophomore quarterback will surely be invited to New York and will likely be the favorite to win the award should he lead the Irish to an undefeated regular season. He has a better arm and more talent than the departed Evert Golson, the question is whether he is able to put all of that raw talent into production on the field.

1. Mike Bercovici QB Arizona State
He has only had 3 career starts, but in those starts Bercovici has played quite well. The Arizona State QB leads one of the most consistent teams in the Pac 12 and a team that I expect to compete for the national championship.

My Heisman Top 5

5. Taysom Hill QB BYU

He was one of the favorites last season before going down with a devastating injury and there was even some talk that BYU could make the playoff. That injury ended that talk and his Heisman campaign, but there is no reason to think it can't be queued back up for this season.

4. Trevoyne Boykin QB TCU

This will be most people's pick to win the Heisman and it isn't for nothing. He is the quarterback of the team that is favored to win the title. However, I think that the weaknesses of defenses in the Big 12 will hurt Boykin as will his comparisons to Taysom Hill for that reason. 

3. Derrick Henry RB Alabama

While I'd like to think that this will be Coker if there is an Alabama Heisman candidate, chances are that they will still rely more on the ground game. History shows us that a dominant Alabama runningback has a very good chance at coming away with the Heisman trophy.

2. Scooby Wright LB Arizona

Scooby has a legit chance to make history should Arizona do what I am predicting them to do and he dominate on the field as expected. There will be a defensive player invited this year, the question is whether it will be him, Joey Bosa, or Shawn Oakman. I expect it to be Wright.

1. Connor Cook QB Michigan State

Cook is the best quarterback in the country and he will play for one of the best teams in the country. Especially if he takes down the Ohio State Buckeyes, this is his award to lose. He already has some Heisman hype and it won't be going anywhere.

Offensive All-Americans

QB Connor Cook Michigan State

RB Derrick Henry Alabama

RB Nick Chubb Georgia

WR DJ Foster Arizona State

WR Laquon Treadwell Ole Miss

TE Bucky Hodges Virginia Tech

OT Spencer Drango Baylor

OT Ronnie Stanley Notre Dame

OG Landon Turner North Carolina

OG Pat Elfein Ohio State

C Jack Allen Michigan State

Defensive All-Americans

DE Emmanuel Ogbah Oklahoma State

DE Joey Bosa Ohio State

DT A'Shawn Robinson Alabama

DT Anthony Zettel Penn State

LB Scooby Wright Arizona

LB Terrance Smith Florida State

LB Jaylon Smith Notre Dame

LB Myles Jack UCLA

CB Vernon Hargreaves Florida

CB Jalen Ramsey Florida State

FS Quin Blanding Virginia

SS Eddie Jackson Alabama

Specialist All-Americans

K Roberto Aguayo Florida State

P Austin Rehkow Idaho

KR/PR Deandre Reaves Marshall

Coach of The Year

Mike Gundy Oklahoma State
Gundy will once again show off his coaching chops by having a team that is not expected to go anywhere, competing for a national title. This time, he will be rewarded for his effort.

It should be a wonderfully exciting football season indeed.

-Noland

Looking Back At My Football Predictions

For the 2014-2015 season, my original predictions for college can be found here and for the NFL can be found here. I also made a pick of the bowl games and the playoffs. We will look at all of these predictions because it will give some perspective on what I have gotten right and wrong heading into any predictions about the NFL draft and the upcoming season. Then at the end of this post, I will examine my draft grades from last year's draft as well (in the next post). The first thing you will notice about the link is that the college football playoff link is missing. It is missing because I was horribly wrong on it. I had both teams losing that won their games. That was the low point of my football predictions, but I really did well elsewhere in my picks especially when it came to the draft, but like I said that draft post is next week...

Let's start with the college football preview..I said that FSU would win the ACC and Alabama would win the SEC and was right about both of those selections. However, I said Pittsburgh would win the ACC Atlantic and was very wrong. I also happened to be wrong about the other major conference winners. Jake Coker did not start for Bama as I predicted and they lost 2 games (I predicted they would lose 3 without Coker). In my defense on the SEC prediction, Alabama was getting a lot of favorable calls in SEC action. I was wrong on the Heisman winner, but had the right conference and was right about Winston not being top 3. I was correct in assuming that Winston would be expected to do far too much to win the award. My 5 under the radar games to watch were all fantastic other than the Oregon-Wyoming game. Those games were picked out quite well. Where I missed the mark in these games is that Pittsburgh and Miami was not for the ACC Atlantic crown as predicted. Another home run I hit was with my prediction of Ohio State. I expected Ohio State to lose one of their first two games and they did lose to Virginia Tech. Ohio State nearly lost to Navy as well. It did not knock them out of the title picture as predicted, but the loss to the Hokies came very close to eliminating the Buckeyes. Navy entered the Notre Dame game at 4-4 while I predicted it to be 7-1. However, Navy did win all of their games after Notre Dame and was a very strong team as predicted. Every loss they had was a game they were in for at least a half.

In that first article I predicted that FSU and Alabama would both make the college football playoff and was right. I also said that if I had to pick a team to win it would be FSU, but it was too close to call. I mentioned Oregon as another team that could easily make it and win. The Ducks made it over my pick of UCLA. My bowl picks were about as successful as my other predictions. I had some big hits and some big misses. One deadly accurate score was Central Michigan and Western Kentucky. I got the game wrong, but I picked it Central Michigan 49-Western Kentucky 47. It was Western Kentucky 49-Central Michigan 48. Overall in bowl games I went 17-19 for one I my worst records ever. Like I said though that one game I had pretty accurately counted as a loss and I picked West Virginia before Trickett's injury and I actually switched it after hearing about it, but still counted it as a loss because on the site I picked WVU. Still, I was off last year in college football on my picks.

Now, on to the NFL predictions for last season....
I predicted that Matt Stafford would be MVP banking on Calvin Johnson's continued production and the addition of Golden Tate for Detroit. Tate made a huge difference, but Megatron was hurt for most of the year and that prediction failed as a result.
I predicted 4 of the 6 playoff teams in the NFC correctly. I missed on Green Bay and Dallas, instead choosing New Orleans and Philly.The AFC had the same result for me as I hit 4 of 6 there. I predicted San Diego and Houston over the actual participants in Cincinnati and Indy.
Coach of the Year I was off because Houston wasn't quite as good as I anticipated they would be. The quarterback play did hold this team back.
Kelvin Benjamin was not offensive rookie of the year despite a fantastic rookie season. Odell Beckham's catch highlighted a fantastic finish for the Giants wideout.
Houston's defense finished 19th in sacks when I predicted they would be #1. Clowney's injury is what I am blaming, but I was disappointed in the performance of the Texans other than Watt last year. JJ Watt is an absolute beast and arguably the best player in the league.
Andre Ellington was banged up all season eventually ending up on injured reserve and dooming his pro bowl chances.
Johnny Manziel was 0-2 as a starter and a complete joke as a rookie, so I was right about that prediction.

Now, on to my draft grades to see what I have right so far. For those results check in with me next week. This will be followed by my long awaited post on Jameis Winston the following week.

-Noland

College Football Playoff Preview

In the preseason I picked two of these teams to be here, Alabama and Florida State. Although, I did predict that Alabama would lose 3 games if it went with Blake Sims at QB and was proven wrong. I also said that I was expecting Ohio State to lose one of their opening two games with their true freshman QB. The Buckeyes lost to Virginia Tech and were playing even with Navy until their athletes pulled away. That loss I thought would knock them out of the hunt, but they rebounded nicely to make it. Before the Braxton Miller injury I considered the Big 10 a toss-up between Ohio State and Michigan State. Post injury I saw that loss and maybe a few more. Great job by the Buckeyes this year at handling adversity. The Pac 12 race I predicted to be the tightest because I thought UCLA would be a tad better and picked the Bruins to win. However, I realized the Ducks would be good and thought they would just miss out. Those Ducks had a great season and will be playing my Noles in the Rose Bowl.

After weeks of controversy and predictions from the committee and college football fans everywhere, I think the committee mostly got it right. While I would have liked to see Baylor over Ohio State, Baylor did not play a conference championship and was a co-champion while Ohio State won the Big 10 outright. The order of the teams is not right as the only undefeated team is #3, but the teams are fine and I like every other fan am excited for this playoff.

Let's start with the Rose Bowl...

Rose Bowl

Jan. 1 5 PM ESPN

Oregon v. Florida State

The Seminoles are undefeated and have won 29 straight games. No matter how you slice it, what they have done in this run is incredible. This team has not lost in the calendar year 2013 or 2014 and there is nothing anyone can do about that. Every Florida State fan should live in the moment and enjoy that fact. These Noles are on one of the most historic runs in college football history and a win in this game would be their 30th straight victory.

Interesting note in this one is that the Noles first game in 2014 was at the Rose Bowl and their second game was in Dallas. If the Noles win the Rose Bowl on New Years Day, their first game of 2015 will be at the Rose Bowl and their second game will be in Dallas. It is funny the cycles that exist in college football.

Now, to the game....Marcus Mariota has had an outstanding season and nobody is arguing with his Heisman run, but let's not forget the teams he has done it against. This guy faces very poor pass defense in the Pac 12. In fact, there is only one top 86 pass defense on Marcus Marriota's schedule. The Stanford Cardinal is ranked #7 in pass defense. In that game he wasn't having a 300 yard game and threw an interception. Every other defense he faced was ranked 87 or lower against the pass. Yes, he had a great season, but those numbers were inflated a little bit and FSU has a better secondary than this team usually faces. It should be interesting to see how this offense matches up with the Seminoles defense. Oregon's offense is basically Georgia Tech's with a passing threat and if Mariota can get the linebackers in coverage, he can have a big day. The secondary though is better than that of what Oregon has faced so they will have to exploit the lack of depth FSU has at linebacker. This is huge for the Heisman trophy winner's draft stock. Decimate the Seminoles D and guarantee a top 10 pick. Struggle and have teams second guess themselves on selecting you.

When FSU has the ball, they get to play Oregon's defense which is inferior to most that they have played. FSU has played 5 top 15 defenses (Clemson, Louisville, Florida, Boston College, and Miami) while Oregon is not even close to that. In fact, Oregon's defense is ranked 81 behind pretty much every team Florida State has played. This is not to mention that Florida State has had 3 weeks to prepare for Oregon and Jameis Winston skipped the Heisman ceremony to prepare and watch film. From the awards circuit last year, Winston gained 20 pounds and wasn't able to prepare as well as he has this time. Now, while Marriota is doing all the traveling, Winston is plotting and getting ready. He also got that look in his eye during the Georgia Tech game that had been missing the rest of this season, but was apparent last year. This guy is ready. His WRs are healthy and he got 3 weeks to work out with the true freshmen receivers and gain a little chemistry. Winston is ready to go off. Add in the emergence of Dalvin Cook and it will be very tough for Oregon to stop this offense. FSU really wants to get to 30 and Jameis Winston just wins. You have to kind of expect him to win again at this point. I know I am not betting against him.

Another factor that has come up that will aid the chances of FSU's success is that Oregon's top DB had a season ending injury in bowl prep practice. All-American Ifo Ekpre-Olomu suffered a devastating knee injury and will not play. While that really sucks and I wish he was okay it does effect the game. Oregon cannot cover Florida State without him and this game could get ugly. It will absolutely be a shootout and Oregon needs to hope Florida State either has a slow start or has just as much trouble stopping their offense. I am very excited for this one tomorrow night...
Florida State 63 - Oregon 42

Sugar Bowl

Jan. 1 8:30 PM ESPN

Alabama v. Ohio State

Alabama is the favorite in this one and the favorite to win the title period. They have been there before and had success. The Crimson Tide have also dominated recruiting in recent years. Just based on their recruiting success and always being #1 in recruiting, one would expect the Tide to be in the top spot. However, there are some factors that make this game not as much of a sure thing as you would think. Alabama is 5-8 against the spread this season while Ohio State is 8-5 against the spread. The Tide is favored by 9.5 points and Ohio State could cover easily. The question is will they? More importantly the question is, can they win it outright? For that answer we need to look deeper into the match-up.

This is about as good as it gets in college football. You have the two coaches that most consider the best at least in the x's and o's department. Meyer won 2 National Championships at Florida and Saban has won 4 (3 at Bama, 1 at LSU). The incredible 6 National Championships between these two coaches is an absolutely amazing job at coaching by each. The two have met up 3 times against each other with Meyer winning the first match-up and Saban winning the next two. In fact, Saban is only one of 4 active coaches who has bested Meyer multiple times. However, Meyer is one of very few coaches able to prepare with multiple weeks as well as Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide. Urban Meyer is 7-2 in bowl games for a .772 Winning Percentage. He is 4-1 in BCS level bowls, with his only loss coming to Clemson last season. Meanwhile, Nick Saban has a 8-7 record in bowls for a .533 winning percentage. He is 5-2 in BCS level bowls. While it is true that you don't want to face Nick Saban with multiple weeks to prepare, it may be more true to say that about Urban Meyer. With multiple weeks to prepare and coming off of bye weeks, Meyer has been absolutely fantastic.

Sure, Meyer can flex his muscle as a coach, but the key here will be whether his team has anywhere near the talent to compete with Alabama. At the end of the day, they just don't have the horses and I don't think the extra prep time will be enough to compete with the much more talented Alabama squad. The Buckeyes are down to their third string QB and have an offensive coordinator that is leaving for a head coaching gig at Houston. Those are tough things to overcome when you are playing a squad this talented. Any distractions are negatives in a game of this magnitude and that is not good for Ohio State.
Don't underestimate Meyer coming up clutch in the big game. There is also the chance that they get to Blake Sims and force him to make mistakes. If Ohio State can force Sims to make mistakes and make Sims beat them, they have a good shot. That is their chance. Sims plays well and it is a blowout, but if he plays poorly, the Buckeyes have a chance. At the end of the day, expect Saban to pull out the victory.

Saban and the rest of the country will get what they want....The FSU-Alabama showdown is coming. Saban against his former offensive coordinator.
Alabama 35 - Ohio State 24

National Championship Game

Jan. 12 8:30 PM ESPN

Florida State v. Alabama

This game is one that has seemed destined to happen for about 3 years. In 2012, the Seminoles choked blowing games against NC State and Florida. The following year it was Alabama's turn blowing a game against Auburn. FSU was much better than Alabama in 2013, but it was still the match-up everybody wanted to see. Now, this season it will finally happen, assuming both teams win their semi-final match-ups on their superior talent. Everybody wants the Saban-Fisher match-up and we should finally be getting it. This game will get serious ratings and everyone wants to see how Fisher does against his former boss.

I love that picture of the three coaching legends. These guys are close, but make no mistake about how badly these two want to beat each other. Not just to be National Champion, but this game has a tremendous effect on the future of college football. Alabama will be expected to win and if the lines opened today are a projected 9 point favorite. FSU will be riding a 30 game winning streak if they get to this one.The storyline entering this game couldn't be much better. There is only one thing that could make this more interesting and that would be if Jakob Coker beat out Blake Sims at QB.
Speaking on Blake Sims and QB, the QB position is by far FSU's biggest edge. The Seminoles have a guy that has never lost a game and is considered historically great by many. While the Crimson Tide have a guy that is their biggest chance of losing. There is absolutely no comparison of the QBs in this game. Jameis is simply much better. FSU also has more talent in the secondary than Alabama so I would give that edge to the Noles as well. The passing game edge has to go to FSU.

They may have the edge in the passing game, but Alabama has an edge up front. Many believe that Alabama has a huge edge here, but I don't think it is that big. FSU will likely have Eddie Goldman and Nile Lawrence-Stample back for the playoff and that difference should not be understated. The Noles also have allowed only 2 sacks in the past four games. Since, the switch of Cameron Erving to center and Roderick Johnson to LT this line has been fantastic. Johnson hasn't been going against scrubs either, in the Florida game, he face Donte Fowler. Playing in just a handful of games, Roderick Johnson was able to be named to the Freshman All-American Team. While I give Alabama the edge here, it is a very small edge.
I also give Alabama an edge with their running game. That edge is very small though as well because FSU has been running the ball much better lately. Dalvin Cook is an absolute superstar in the making and will likely be a huge factor in this game.
Alabama is much better at linebacker, but the Noles have a solid starting group. FSU just seriously lacks depth at the LB position.
At the end of the day this will be a dogfight and will be what everyone is hoping for, but I just can't see Alabama stopping Jameis Winston. I don't see anyone denying this kid his destiny. He is supposed to win out in college football. He is the best there is in college football and he will not lose a college game. The supporting cast is too strong and the Noles have been too disrespected to fail. Sure, they could lose due to all the parity this year, but this is the best team and it seems to be their destiny. The most talent, the best team, the most battle tested, these Noles are ready. Jameis Winston is ready and I cannot wait. This passing game is too good to be denied.
Florida State 56 - Alabama 42

Finish the mission. Add to the hardware. Make it 31 straight and leave no doubt. Florida State Football. Go Noles!

-Noland

Super Conference Option 2

A while back before any of us knew what the college football playoff would look like, I cautioned that we should be realistic about it. In this article I said that it won't solve everything. That was way back in December 2013 and early returns and rankings look like I am right. Controversy is sure to follow, but is there a better solution? Expanding the playoffs is truly not the answer so I came up with two other options. So this option is my 3rd. This is the 2nd Super Conference Option, but my third option overall.

Option 1
Option 2

This option is very similar to Option 2. In fact, you could say it's the same thing. There is one major difference though, in this scenario the Big 12 beats the ACC to the punch and expands to 20 first. This is actually started by the Big 10 who takes Virginia and Duke. Therefore, the conferences align differently and different teams will be left out. The rivalries will also shift slightly as a result, but here are the ground rules again.
"4 conferences
20 teams
2 divisions in each conference
9 intra-division matchups
1 rotating opponent from the other division
1 cross-division rivalry game
1 out of conference rivalry game
These rivals will be posted in parentheses next to the teams below
Some teams are without a true cross division rival, so I will have to make up a rivalry."

BIG Conference (Formerly Big 10)
Eastern Division
Boston College      (Notre Dame, Miami)
Duke                     (Northwestern, North Carolina)
Indiana                  (Purdue, Vanderbilt)
Maryland               (Nebraska , North Carolina State)
Ohio State              (Michigan, Cincinnati)
Penn State              (Iowa, Temple)
Pittsburgh               (Wisconsin, West Virginia)
Rutgers                  (Minnesota, Louisville)
Syracuse                 (Illinois, Tennessee)
Virginia                  (Michigan State, Virginia Tech)
Western Division
Illinois                   (Syracuse, California)
Iowa                      (Penn State, Iowa State)
Michigan                (Ohio State, Stanford)
Michigan State        (Virginia, Oregon)
Minnesota               (Rutgers, UCLA)
Nebraska                 (Maryland, Oklahoma)
Northwestern           (Duke, Washington)
Notre Dame             (Boston College, Southern Cal)
Purdue                     (Indiana, Arizona)
Wisconsin                (Pittsburgh, Arizona State)

The first strike against a former Power 5 conference in this scenario is Duke and Virginia leaving the ACC for the Big 10. After that major coup, Notre Dame decides to join the Big 10 figuring the ACC is done for. Once the Group of 5 leaves for the Big 10, Syracuse, BC, and Pitt are practically begging to join the Big 10.

Let's look at the updated Ohio State schedule and see how the Big 10 improved. Actual opponent in parentheses unless it is the same opponent.

8/30 Ohio State @ Boston College (@Navy)
9/6   Virginia @ Ohio State (Virginia Tech)
9/13  Syracuse @ Ohio State (Kent State)
9/27  Cincinnati @ Ohio State
10/4  Ohio State @ Maryland
10/18 Rutgers @ Ohio State
10/25 Ohio State @ Penn State
11/1  Ohio State @ Pittsburgh (Illinois Home)
11/8  Ohio State @ Duke (@ Michigan State)
11/15 Ohio State @ Minnesota
11/22 Indiana @ Ohio State
11/29 Michigan @ Ohio State

You add a road game under this scenario for Ohio State and you replace Virginia Tech, Kent State, and Illinois with Virginia, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh. Those are all upgrades in my opinion. The one downgrade may be Duke v. Michigan State, but that is highly debatable as Duke is a quality opponent. Then Ohio State will likely have to face Michigan State in the title IF they win this side.

Liberty Conference (Formerly Big 12)
Eastern Division
Central Florida       (Baylor, East Carolina)
Cincinnati              (Iowa State, Ohio State)
Clemson                (Texas, South Carolina)
Florida State           (Oklahoma, Florida)
Georgia Tech          (Texas Tech, Georgia)
Marshall                 (Kansas, Kentucky)
Miami                    (Kansas State, Boston College)
Temple                   (TCU, Penn State)
Virginia Tech          (Boise State, Virginia)
West Virginia          (Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh)
Western Division
Baylor                    (Central Florida, Houston)
Boise State              (Virginia Tech, UNLV)
Iowa State                (Cincinnati, Iowa)
Kansas                     (Marshall, Missouri)
Kansas State             (Miami, Colorado)
Oklahoma                 (Florida State, Nebraska)
Oklahoma State         (West Virginia, Oregon State)
TCU                         (Temple, Southern Methodist)
Texas                        (Clemson, Texas A & M)
Texas Tech                (Georgia Tech, UTEP)

The Big 12 acts first to expand in this scenario to get to a stronger 20 than the ACC so they are the automatic qualifier. The first team they add is Boise State adding them to their stable of classic Big 12 teams to form a Western division. They then need to add 9 teams East to go with WVU. They add Central Florida, Cincinnati, Marshall, and Temple also within the first week. They are prepared to add more mid majors, but not wanting to be left out of the playoff, FSU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech decide to bring along Miami and Virginia Tech and head to the Big 12. Realizing 12 is stupid to have as the name for a conference with 20 teams, they finally change the conference name. The new Liberty Conference ends up being the strongest conference of all.

Now let's look at the Noles schedule to prove it's strength.
8/30 Florida State @ Oklahoma State (same game in Dallas)
9/6   Oklahoma @ Florida State (Citadel)
9/20  Clemson @ Florida State
9/27  Florida State @ Temple (@ North Carolina State)
10/4  Virginia Tech @ Florida State (Wake Forest)
10/11 Florida State @ Marshall (@Syracuse)
10/18 Cincinnati @ Florida State (Notre Dame)
11/1   Florida State @ Georgia Tech (@ Louisville 10/30)
11/8   Central Florida @ Florida State (Virginia)
11/15 Florida State @ Miami
11/22 Florida State @ West Virginia (Boston College Home)
11/29 Florida @ Florida State

There is no doubt that this schedule is more difficult. Georgia Tech is the 2nd best team in the ACC and the Noles would be playing them yearly. Adding Oklahoma to the schedule is no easy task. There is no more Wake Forest and Syracuse beatdown games either.

Pacific Athletic Conference (Formerly PAC 12)
Northern Division
BYU                         (UNLV, Mississippi State)
California                  (Stanford, Illinois)
Colorado                    (Fresno State, Kansas State)
Colorado State            (Nevada, Arkansas)
Oregon                       (Arizona, Michigan State)
Oregon State               (UCLA, Oklahoma State)
Utah                           (Houston, Alabama)
Utah State                   (UTEP, Memphis)
Washington                 (Southern Cal, Northwestern)
Washington State         (Arizona State, LSU)
Southern Division
Arizona                      (Oregon, Purdue)
Arizona State              (Washington State, Wisconsin)
Fresno State                (Colorado, Mississippi)
Houston                      (Utah, Baylor)
Nevada                       (Colorado State, Auburn)
Southern Cal               (Washington, Notre Dame)
Stanford                      (California, Stanford)
UCLA                         (Oregon State, Minnesota)
UNLV                         (BYU, Boise State)
UTEP                          (Utah State, Texas Tech)

The Pac 12 moves after the Big 12 and Big 10 get started, but does decent work in expansion again. Realizing they are moving to twenty and might need to change numbers again, they decide to drop the number and simply become the PAC. They also realize the Big 12 is sticking after they expand with some strong mid majors and decide to add their own mid majors, starting with BYU. Once BYU is in the fold, they add some other teams.

Let's look at Utah State's upgraded schedule to see the impact on a quality mid major.
8/31 Utah State @ UTEP (@ Tennessee)
9/6   Colorado @ Utah State (Idaho State)
9/13 Washington State @ Utah State (Wake Forest)
9/20 Utah State @ Arizona State (@ Arkansas State)
10/3 Utah State @ Oregon (@ BYU)
10/10 Washington @ Utah State (Air Force)
10/18 Utah State @ Colorado State
10/25 UNLV @ Utah State
11/1   Utah State @ Oregon State (@ Hawaii)
11/8   Utah State @ California (@ Wyoming)
11/22  Memphis @ Utah State (11/21 San Jose State)
11/29  Utah @ Utah State (@ Boise State)

Utah State actually adds a bye week on 11/15 since they have 13 regular season games. All teams that play Hawaii usually have 13 games. These guys would no longer be playing Hawaii and would no longer have the 13th game. Quality is added throughout the Utah State schedule as well as additional home games. This schedule is highlighted by trips to Arizona State and Oregon. This is a Utah State schedule I would like to see.

South Eastern Conference
Eastern Division
East Carolina             (Texas A & M, Central Florida)
Florida                      (LSU, Florida State)
Georgia                      (Auburn, Georgia Tech)
Kentucky                    (Mississippi State, Marshall)
Louisville                   (Missouri, Rutgers)
North Carolina            (Arkansas, Duke)    
North Carolina State    (Southern Methodist, Maryland)
South Carolina             (Mississippi, Clemson)
Tennessee                    (Alabama, Syracuse)
Vanderbilt                    (Memphis, Indiana)
Western Division
Alabama                  (Tennessee, Utah)
Arkansas                  (North Carolina, Colorado State)
Auburn                     (Georgia, Nevada)
LSU                         (Florida, Washington State)
Memphis                   (Vanderbilt, Utah State)
Mississippi                (South Carolina, Fresno State)
Mississippi State        (Kentucky, BYU)
Missouri                    (Louisville, Kansas)
Southern Methodist     (North Carolina State, TCU)
Texas A & M              (East Carolina, Texas)

The SEC is last to act in this scenario because they don't need to act. They are set up the best heading into the expansion. This conference knows it just needs to get to 20 and they will be set. They add East Carolina to expand into North Carolina first. After the ACC is picked apart they want the Tar Heels as well, but the Tar Heels get them to accept rival NC State along with them. Louisville is also added from the ACC and Missouri is flipped West. To strengthen the market in Texas, Southern Methodist is added along with Memphis. The SEC West is still much stronger than the East, but by adding North Carolina and Louisville, the SEC has added two schools that can compete for titles on that side of the conference from time to time.

Now let's look at Auburn's schedule since they are considered to have the toughest schedule in the country.
8/30   Arkansas @ Auburn
9/6     Memphis @ Auburn (San Jose State)
9/20   Auburn @ Missouri (9/18 @ Kansas State)
9/27   Auburn @ Southern Methodist (Louisiana Tech Home)
10/4   LSU @ Auburn
10/11 Auburn @ Mississippi State
10/25  South Carolina@ Auburn
11/1   Auburn @ Ole Miss
11/8  Texas A & M @ Auburn
11/15 Auburn @ Georgia
11/22  Nevada @ Auburn (Samford)
11/29  Auburn @ Alabama

The only replacements here are Memphis, Missouri, Southern Methodist, and Nevada for San Jose State, Kansas State, Louisiana Tech, and Samford. You can argue that each of those is an upgrade and Nevada is a huge upgrade over Samford. This schedule is a win.

Final Wrap-Up

Under this scenario the two biggest snubs are Wake Forest and Connecticut based on their placement when the BCS scenario began. UCONN was left behind once again with no conference gaining a huge strategic advantage by adding them. Wake Forest was left behind because the SEC refused to add a 4th Carolina school and the ACC Schools that left for the Big 10 and Big 12 felt no loyalty toward Wake. As the weakest ACC school currently, I believe Wake would have to act first in a scenario such as this if it felt the ACC being picked apart.

I think I like this option better than the other Super Conference Option, but I am not sure if I like it better than the relegation option. I do like keeping the historic rivalries though. How bout' that last FSU-Canes game?
Which of the three options do you like best?
In my next piece, you can find out what happens to the service academies that get left out if they get left out. It is probably the best thing for those academies.
Have a great Thanksgiving tomorrow!

-Noland