College Football Preview 2014

Today we take a break from the greatest coaches ever countdown because...

Football season is finally upon us. Since it is upon us, it is officially prediction time. In the past, I have predicted the Top 25 and some bowl matchups. However, with the playoffs happening this year, I thought I would structure my predictions differently. I feel as though people care more about who you pick to win than the actual rankings. Therefore, I am picking the major conference champions, and 1 team in each conference that will do better than expected. That better than expected team I am calling the darkhorse. I will make a couple other predictions and point out some under the radar games that I want to see. Finally, at the end of this piece, I will make my predictions on the 4 team playoff.

ACC
Champion
Florida State

Everyone is picking FSU to win the ACC and be a threat nationally. There is good reason for people to be high on the Seminoles. FSU has the most talented roster and they are defending National Champions. They should run away with the ACC, but there are a few teams that can give the Noles some problems.

Darkhorse
Pittsburgh

The ACC Atlantic is wide open with many people picking Miami to win it. However, Miami has not yet reached the ACC Championship game and always seems to come up short. Additionally, UNC always seems to come up short of expectations as well. Virginia Tech is breaking in a new QB that looked pretty awful in the bowl game, and Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and UVA don't look close. That opens the door wide open for Pitt who has a talented roster and is a threat to make the ACC Title game. Most people have them predicted to finish 4th in the Atlantic or lower, but I expect a better finish than that.

Big 10
Champion
Michigan State

The Braxton Miller injury certainly makes Michigan State the favorite in the Big 10. It was a toss up before, and with a major injury two weeks before the season, you have to like the odds for Sparty. However, the Big 10's SOS takes a major hit with the Ohio State injury. If Ohio State loses a couple of games, then it will be difficult for any Big 10 team to make the inaugural college football playoff. Michigan State almost certainly needs to go undefeated including a win over Oregon to make the playoff at this point.

Darkhorse
Rutgers
Rutgers is joining the Big 10 this year and predicted to be the worst team in the conference. I am not saying that Rutgers will be any sort of force to win the conference, but I just can't see them finishing dead last.

Big 12
Champion
Oklahoma

Oklahoma is predicted to be a top 4 team. They just smoked Alabama in a BCS game. Bob Stoops was awesome in the BCS era. It is incredibly difficult to go with anyone else to win this conference or to make the playoff. These guys should win the Big 12, but Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas could threaten it.

Darkhorse
Texas
I will not get into my prediction of Texas last year...However, with Charlie Strong at the helm and a talented returning roster, they should beat the 7 win prediction I saw on ESPN a few days ago. Not only should they beat it, but they should be a top 4 team in the Big 12. This team could easily be a double digit win team. I expect Charlie Strong's boys to exceed expectations this season.

Pac 12
Champion
UCLA

Most people are picking Oregon to win the Pac 12, but UCLA has the better team and the better QB in my opinion. They are more complete and should win the Pac 12. This should be the tightest conference race though outside the SEC. There are a few teams very capable of winning the conference.

Darkhorse
Colorado
I am not predicting Colorado to do much, but they should finish better than last place where they are predicted. I actually agree with most of the rankings I have seen for the Pac 12, but I think UCLA and not Oregon will win. The nect most likely upset to me is Colorado better than last.

SEC
Champion
Alabama

Everyone is picking Alabama not Auburn to win the SEC and start #2 in the country. That prediction is with good reason and I 100% agree with it. Alabama has more talent and a legendary coach. They are sitting pretty for this football season and could easily win the championship. Jacob Coker has more arm talent than any QB I can remember under Nick Saban. The FSU Coaching staff said he had a better arm than Jameis Winston, even with Winston putting up those ridiculous numbers. That is scary for the rest of the nation when you really think about it.

Darkhorse
Kentucky

Somebody has to be picked to finish last in the SEC, and it just happens to be Kentucky this year. I just don't buy it happening again. Kentucky has a great coaching staff that had a year to put the things it wanted into place and get some recruits in. That coaching staff will not allow the Kentucky Wildcats to be dead last in the conference. I do not care how loaded the SEC is, Kentucky is on the weaker side and will not finish in last place. Do not be surprised if they get a decent bowl this year. Depending on how far they exceed expectations, Mark Stoops is a coach of the year candidate.

Heisman Winner
Brett Hundley

If I am right about UCLA winning the Pac 12 and going to the inaugural college football playoff, then it will be behind the arm of Brett Hundley. He is as talented and gifted as any quarterback in college football. Yes, that includes Jameis Winston. This guy is the favorite in my opinion, but is not a lock to win the award. There are about 10 guys I identify now as strong candidates and there are always one or two surprise candidates. Hundley is my prediction to win though.

Coach of The Year
Craig Bohl

Okay, I may be higher on Craig Bohl than most, but if you have been following this blog lately you will see why. This first time FBS coach knocked off 7 FBS programs in the last 10 years at FCS North Dakota State. Those upsets include last years shocker over Kansas State. He also won three straight FCS titles. Now, he may not have the talent to do anything incredible this year, but as he builds the program at Wyoming, it will eventually be a force. It is just a matter of time before we find out what kind of force and how much talent he has to do it. For the lack of a better alternative, I pick him to win the award this year, knowing I may be a year or two early.

Despite having the best run program in college football right now, I cannot pick Jimbo Fisher. The guy has accomplished so much in his 4 years at Florida State and there is no coach I would rather have. However, since he is preseason #1, there is no way he wins the Coach of the Year Award. They just don't give a Coach of the Year for being wire-to-wire champs and if he doesn't accomplish it, he will finish even further back. I like having Jimbo at FSU though.

Five Under the Radar Games to Watch
1) Ohio State @ Navy
I think people are paying more attention to this game now already. Braxton Miller just got hurt which you have to think increases the odds of a competitive game. Ohio State is likely more worried now about getting their QB ready for Big 10 play than with Navy now that there are only 2 weeks left and they have to break in a new starter. This one should be really competitive and fun to watch.

2) Akron @ Penn State
The Akron Zips are now coached by Terry Bowden who has had a winning record everywhere he has gone. Now, in year three at Akron, I expect him to turn the ship around. Bowden now has some recruits he wanted and the program just the way he wanted it. He also has a great looking matchup and likely trap game for Penn State. This game is right in between a huge rematch with UCF and the start of Big 10 play. The schedule could not be any more open to an upset for the Zips. This should be a fun one. The Zips closed on a three game win streak and look to be turning that corner into being a winning football team.

3) Wyoming @ Oregon
The Oregon Ducks welcome Craig Bohl's Wyoming Cowboys in week 3 and nobody is talking about it or will talk about it. However, perhaps they should. This would be a perfect trap game if Wyoming has the talent to pull it off. I am not sure they do, but regardless it will be closer than the spread. This game rests in between a huge contest with Michigan State and the beginning of Pac 12 play for Oregon. I want to see what tricks Craig Bohl has for this game and how much talent his team has. I look forward to this Week 3 game.

4) Kentucky @ Florida
Everyone seems to be saying the Florida Gators will be much improved over last year, while the Wildcats will be the worst team in the SEC. Well, not so fast my friends as Lee Corso would say. In another Week 3 interesting matchup, Kentucky takes on Florida. Florida has historically dominated the Wildcats, but this years game should be quite interesting. I consider this game my early upset special.

5) Pittsburgh @ Miami
Nobody is talking about this game now, but they probably will by the time this game rolls around because it will likely settle the ACC Atlantic. This game is at the end of the season too, which adds to the intrigue of it. I definitely want to see this game and hope it is not during FSU-Florida. Pitt has a lot more talent than people think.

Five Other Predictions For This Season
1) If Coker wins the Alabama job then they make the playoff and he finishes Top 5 in Heisman voting.

2) If Coker does not win the Alabama job, they will lose three games.

3) Jameis Winston will not finish in the top 3 of Heisman voting. To do so, he would have to have a better year and FSU more dominant than last year. Voters do not want to pick him in consecutive years. I would not be surprised if his former back-up (Jacob Coker) and his runningback (Karlos Williams) finished ahead of him in voting.

4) Ohio State loses one or both of their opening games. Ohio State opens with Navy, then they get Virginia Tech. Now, they have to do this without Braxton Miller. They also lost 4 of 5 starters on their O-line and their monster runningback. This will be Urban's toughest coaching job for the Buckeyes to date.

5) Navy enters the Notre Dame game at 7-1 or 8-0. If Navy can pull the mega-upset over Ohio State, I expect them to be a perfect 8-0 heading into the Notre Dame game. If they cannot, than they will be 7-1 entering that game. Either way, that will be the Gameday game likely and it will have huge implications on the major bowls.

Four Team Playoff Participants
Alabama
Florida State
Oklahoma
UCLA

I just put these teams in alphabetical order when I got here. All of them are who I expect to make the playoff. The most likely team to crash the party is Michigan State. However, to do so, the Spartans almost certainly have to knock off the Oregon Ducks. Oregon is another team that is fully capable of making the playoff. Those other two powerhouses in the SEC West could easily make it as well. Notre Dame behind Everett Golson again could be the wildcard this year. Don't forget that they beat a really good Michigan State team last year. If not for Notre Dame, we may have had FSU-Michigan State in the title game.
I pick Florida State to win this playoff because they have the best team and the most talent. Assuming they don't have any disappointments, they are the favorites to repeat this year. I will say though that none of these four or those other teams I mentioned would surprise me if they won the inaugural playoff. If it comes outside of those teams though, that would be quite a shock.

-Noland