What If All Football Teams Were Independent?

Chip Kelly recently said something recently that many of us had said for years. He mentioned that all major football programs should be independent like Notre Dame. That concept should have universal support and is something that many of us have been asking to happen for a long time. There is absolutely no reason to not do this and I have outlined below how it could work...

If you took the top 80 college football programs in the country and separated them into 16 regional pods of 5 those would be teams that always play each other. Additionally, you would have one rivalry that was outside of their pod for a locked opponent. Then you could have one rival from the next 80 for one Tier 2 game per school. Each team would have 6 locked opponents every year this way and the other 6 would rotate every year. Every team in the top 80 would play 11 games against other top 80 teams. Right now, less than half of P5 teams play 10 games against the Power 5 (which is essentially what the top 80 would be). Better games and better chance at protecting regional rivalries under this scenario. The top 80 would play for the national championship each year and the next 80 would play for a chance to make the top 80 the following year. EVERY GAME COUNTS under this scenario.

The top 80 would be chosen by their tv viewership under the initial model. Below is 16 regional pods of 5 featuring this top 80. Western Kentucky (78) and UTSA (79) were replaced by SMU (83) and Vanderbilt (82) to avoid any current Power 5 from being left out of the initial top 80 teams. In parenthesis is each teams non-pod rivalry and rival from the next 80. The next 80 are the current remaining FBS teams, teams that made the FCS playoffs, and the FCS schools with the largest stadiums. This division would be known as 1-AA, while the top 80 would be 1-A.

Pod 1

Alabama (LSU) (UAB)

Auburn (Georgia Tech) (South Alabama)

Houston (TCU) (Sam Houston)

Rice (Texas A&M) (Texas State)

SMU (Baylor) (Louisiana Monroe)

Pod 2

Florida (Georgia) (Georgia Southern)

Florida State (Clemson) (Jacksonville State)

Miami (Boston College) (Miami Ohio)

UCF (Colorado State) (Florida International)

USF (Tulane) (Florida Atlantic)

Pod 3

Georgia (Florida) (Troy)

Georgia Tech (Auburn) (Georgia State)

Tennessee (South Carolina) (Middle Tennessee)

Memphis (Mississippi) (Mercer)

Vanderbilt (Army) (Chattanooga)

Pod 4

Michigan (Ohio State) (Central Michigan)

Michigan State (Penn State) (Eastern Michigan)

Minnesota (Iowa) (Western Michigan)

Wisconsin (Illinois) (Youngstown State)

Northwestern (Purdue) (Southern Illinois)

Pod 5

Ohio State (Michigan) (Toledo)

Cincinnati (Rutgers) (Ohio)

Navy (Maryland) (Air Force)

Army (Vanderbilt) (Albany)

Louisville (Kentucky) (Bowling Green)

Pod 6

Texas (Oklahoma) (UTSA)

Texas A&M (Rice) (UTEP)

TCU (Houston) (Delaware)

Texas Tech (Colorado) (Texas Southern)

Baylor (SMU) (North Texas)

Pod 7

Notre Dame (Southern Cal) (Ball State)

Indiana (Duke) (Kent State)

Purdue (Northwestern) (Villanova)

Illinois (Wisconsin) (Northern Illinois)

Kentucky (Louisville) (Western Kentucky)

Pod 8

Arkansas (Kansas) (Arkansas State)

LSU (Alabama) (Louisiana Tech)

Mississippi (Memphis) (Southern Mississippi)

Mississippi State (Missouri) (Mississippi Valley State)

Tulane (USF) (Louisiana)

Pod 9

California (Washington) (Fresno State)

San Jose State (Boise State) (San Diego State)

Southern California (Notre Dame) (Hawaii)

Stanford (Arizona State) (Yale)

UCLA (Oregon) (Sacramento State)

Pod 10

Colorado (Texas Tech) (Jackson State)

Colorado State (UCF) (Wyoming)

Oklahoma (Texas) (Tulsa)

Oklahoma State (Iowa State) (Lafayette)

Nebraska (Kansas State) (Nicholls)

Pod 11

Oregon (UCLA) (Gardner-Webb)

Oregon State (Arizona) (Austin Peay)

UNLV (BYU) (Nevada)

Washington (California) (Harvard)

Washington State (Utah) (Penn)

Pod 12

Iowa (Minnesota) (Drake)

Iowa State (Oklahoma State) (Montana State)

Kansas (Arkansas) (North Dakota State)

Kansas State (Nebraska) (South Dakota State)

Missouri (Mississippi State) (South Dakota)

Pod 13

Maryland (Navy) (Liberty)

Virginia (North Carolina) (James Madison)

Virginia Tech (Syracuse) (Old Dominion)

Wake Forest (NC State) (Appalachian State)

West Virginia (Pittsburgh) (Marshall)

Pod 14

Clemson (Florida State) (Furman)

South Carolina (Tennessee) (Coastal Carolina)

Duke (Indiana) (Richmond)

North Carolina (Virginia) (East Carolina)

North Carolina State (Wake Forest) (Charlotte)

Pod 15 

Boston College (Miami) (UMASS)

Penn State (Michigan State) (Temple)

Pittsburgh (West Virginia) (Akron)

Rutgers (Cincinnati) (UCONN)

Syracuse (Virginia Tech) (Buffalo)

Pod 16

Arizona (Oregon State) (New Mexico)

Arizona State (Stanford) (New Mexico State)

Boise State (San Jose State) (Idaho)

BYU (UNLV) (Montana)

Utah (Washington State) (Utah State)

Under this scenario Florida State's 6 locked opponents would be Florida, Miami, UCF, USF, Clemson, and Jacksonville State. Protecting all of the schools main rivals and giving exciting matchups in USF and UCF that we don't get to see every year, but should. The other 6 opponents would change each year.

Here is how they would find the other 6 opponents. One random opponent will be selected each year for one opponent. Two pods will be randomly paired together each year to form the conference for that year for the other. If your out of conference rival ends up in your conference, then you get a second random game that year to make up for the missing game. The top team in each conference will get a home playoff game and the second place team in each conference will get a road playoff game. 8 conferences, 16 team playoff. More on relegation and promotion will come later in this post...For now, just think of the prospect of 8 corporately sponsored conferences that change each year. Inifinitely more money for those schools. We get excited about 60 million per school in the big two conferences, but each school easily takes home 100 million from the conferences that are sponsored. Think of how much each sponsorship would go for. Allstate, State Farm etc. would pay crazy money to have their name on a conference each week. Let's not lie to ourselves anymore about it being all about money. Let's capitalize on it. Here is how the conferences could look...

Allstate Conference

Alabama

Auburn

Florida

Florida State

Houston

Miami

Rice

SMU

UCF

USF

AT&T Conference

Arizona

Arizona State

Boise State

BYU

California

San Jose State

Southern Cal

Stanford 

UCLA

Utah

Capital One Conference

Boston College

Clemson

Duke

North Carolina

North Carolina State

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

South Carolina

Syracuse

Cheez-It Conference

Maryland

Oregon

Oregon State

UNLV

Virginia

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Washington

Washington State

West Virginia

Chic-Fil-A Conference

Georgia 

Georgia Tech

Iowa

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Memphis

Missouri

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Dr. Pepper Conference

Arkansas

Colorado

Colorado State

LSU

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Nebraska

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Tulane

Ticketmaster Conference

Army

Cincinnati

Louisville

Michigan

Michigan State

Minnesota

Navy

Northwestern

Ohio State

Wisconsin

VRBO Conference

Baylor

Illinois

Indiana

Kentucky

Notre Dame

Purdue

TCU

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

This would be Florida State's Schedule

v. Clemson

@ Jacksonville State

@ Houston

v. UCF

@ Alabama

v. Auburn

@ Miami

v. Rice

@ SMU

v. Colorado

@ USF

v. Florida

The playoffs would be decided on the field. Top team in each conference gets a home playoff game. The second place team in each conference would be the road team. Final standings would be based on conference record. Overall record would be the first tie-breaker. Head to head would be the second tie-breaker. Third tie-breaker (if more than 2 teams tied) would be opponent winning percentage. The potential playoff 1st round would be

Oregon @ Florida State

Missouri @ Texas

Clemson @ Michigan

Southern Cal @ Mississippi

Oklahoma @ Utah

Ohio State @ Penn State

Notre Dame @ Georgia

Alabama @ Washington

The 2nd round, semis, and championship would take place at the classic bowl game settings they have always been held at. Teams would really have something to play for and it would be clear-cut who made it. Now comes the part where all the games matter....

That's right under this scenario you could make even the seemingly irrelevant game matter a great deal. Because the bottom two teams in each conference could be threatened with relegation. The top two in each 1AA conference would get to challenge a bottom two team from a 1A conference. For insance Liberty would have the opportunity to take one of the top 80 spots and have a shot at a national championship the following year. You could have Liberty v. Vanderbilt with a chance to be in the highest tier on the line. Suddenly a game without meaning has a ton of meaning.

Suddenly, all the games would have meaning again. Every school would make more money. It would not affect the other sports. All schools would have a fair shot. A whole lot better than making the sport more like figure skating. Football would once again be decided on the field and not be a committee.

What College Football Should Do Right Now

Conferences across the country are going to conference only competition in an effort to reduce concerns related to the coronavirus. It is understandable that they try to be creative in this trying time, but it's the wrong move. If the concern is partly related to travel, it is time for an even more creative idea. 

What needs to happy is 12 pods of teams separated by region. Each pod should have 6 teams and those teams should play each other twice (home and away). The team with the best record in each pod would advance to the college football playoff. Since there are only 10 games, the two extra playoff games wouldn't be too much. Since 12 teams is not a perfect number, there would also be 4 at-large teams from this group of the best teams remaining. A 16 team playoff would be a wonderful treat for the American people. 

Florida/Georgia

Central Florida

Florida

Florida State

Georgia

Georgia Tech

Miami

South Carolina/North Carolina

Clemson

Duke

North Carolina

North Carolina State

South Carolina

Wake Forest

Alabama/Tennessee

Alabama

Alabama-Birmingham

Auburn

Memphis

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Kentucky/Maryland/West Virginia/Virginia

Kentucky

Louisville

Maryland

Virginia

Virginia Tech

West Virginia

Northeast

Boston College

Cincinnati

Penn State

Pittsburgh

Rutgers

Syracuse

Indiana/Ohio/Michigan

Indiana

Michigan 

Michigan State

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Purdue

Illinois/Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin

Illinois

Iowa

Iowa State

Minnesota

Northwestern

Wisconsin

Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska/Oklahoma

Colorado

Kansas

Kansas State

Nebraska

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Arkansas/Mississippi/Missouri/Louisiana/Texas A&M

Arkansas

Louisiana State

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Missouri

Texas A&M

Texas/Arizona

Arizona

Arizona State

Baylor

Texas

Texas Christian

Texas Tech

Colorado/Idaho/Utah/Washington

Boise State

Brigham Young

Colorado

Utah

Washington

Washington State

California/Oregon

California

Oregon

Oregon State

Southern Cal

Stanford

UCLA

This model would be infinitely better than the conference only model. Better and safer matchups and a better playoff system. All 12 winners would make it along with 4 at-larges that showed the best from this group. It is the right move, but unfortunately, the conferences could not see the easy move this year.

- Noland

Looking Back @ the College Football Season and Forward to the Draft

Before anyone makes more predictions, they should review the ones that they already have made. It is for this reason that after every sport season for which I make predictions, I go back and review those predictions. To see what I got right and what I got oh so horribly wrong. I will start out there with my two sets of college football predictions and then go into my 1st bit of talking about the NFL Draft. Buckle up, because it is the accountability thread. You get to say you told me so, if you told me so that is...

For college football, I did two prediction posts. There was one full of ACC predictions and one for the entire country. Both sets of predictions were filled with a lot of accurate statements, some 1/2 true statements, some inaccurate statements, and some categorically false statements. Let's start with the good....

Derwin James is/was FSU's best player on defense. It has been widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, for him and for my predictions, he got injured for the duration of the season in week 2. While that slighlty affected many of my predictions, my overall one about the ACC Atlantic rang true. There were three really good teams in the ACC Atlantic. FSU finished 8th with a New Years 6 bowl win, Clemson won the national championship, and Louisville spent most of the season in the Top 5 until a late season collapse. That Louisville team was the most dangerous for FSU early for numerous reasons and they took FSU to the woodshed. I was correct in saying that game would be FSU's most likely loss. I also called Lemar Jackson as a serious Heisman contender and said that he would be named player of the year. Deondre Francois was the top newcomer for the ACC also as he won the ACC Rookie of the Year. I hit on 5/11 1st team All ACC Offense predictions. There were also 5/11 correct on the defensive side this year.

Nationally, I did not do as well as I did in the ACC, but I still had some success. My 5 darkhorse teams were all hits. The worst one of the group was a 7-6 team that knocked off Louisville. Every other darkhorse team won at least 9 games and all exceeded expectations. Wisconsin was tops with an 11 win season and New Years 6 bowl win, but Oklahoma State also had 10 wins. The big 12 missed the playoffs as predicted. I was correct that the SEC East favorite, Tennessee, would not win the division. Washington made the playoff and were my one correct prediction there. While I missed them in the playoff, I said Alabama and Clemson had a better chance to win the championship than most the teams I had in and that proved true. All 10 of the teams I had predicted to have a great shot at the title were contenders at one point as well, with the exception of LSU. Clemson v. Florida State and Florida State v. Ole Miss were both thrilling matchups as predicted. I had one Heisman finalist correct (Baker Mayfield) even though that finalist shouldn't have been really invited. On offense I hit on 3/11 AP All American selections. Defensively, I only had Alabama standout Jonathan Allen correct. Now, for things I can justify getting wrong.

The easiest one to justify is both FSU's record and Derwin James' postseason awards. First in regards to the record, I said Clemson would be a major challenge and that the ACC was loaded. Derwin James injury in week 2 changed the complexion of the season. He is that special of a talent. Because he was injured for basically the entire season, he was unable to collect any postseason awards.
LSU's season I have no justification for, but Leonard Fournette didn't have the season he was expecting because he didn't have the same volume he has had in the past. 6.5 yards a carry is incredible, but he had 171 fewer attempts this season than last season.

Now the predictions I just can't justify they were just bad....
LSU winning the SEC! What the heck was I thinking. Bama owns the SEC. LSU lost to one of my darkhorse teams in week 1 (Wisconsin) and struggled. They would ultimately fire their coach.
Only 1 All-American correct prediction on defense. Embarrassing! Will have to watch more film next season.
Texas fired their coach and lost to Kansas! Yikes! They did not take a step forward as expected and Charlie Strong ultimately lost his job because of it.
Alabama v. USC was not a good game. Alabama dismantled USC in a way that most Tide fans didn't even expect to happen.
John O'Korn was not a Heisman darkhorse candidate. He was not even the starting QB at the end of the season for Michigan. This is one of the worst predictions of all-time. At least I had him as a darkhorse candidate and not a finalist though.
Miami actually exceeded my expectations too. They finished ranked and 9-4. I predicted 7-5 and for them to be a disappointment. They were not. Richt did a fine job.

My predictions were pretty solid despite only hitting on 1/4 playoff teams. Most of them were at least partially true or I had solid justification for them. Now onto the draft!!!

There will be a lot more about the draft to come, but let me get it started by just briefly talking about the top Seminoles on the board.

Dalvin Cook    RB
Projection: Top 10 Pick
I project that Dalvin Cook will be a top 10 pick and the 1st RB off the board. He is one of the most complete backs to come out in a long time. Cook is the whole package. He can run, has elite speed, has hands, and can block. This guy is a special player and a game changer. I hope he lasts until the Bucs as a Tampa fan, but don't see it happening. More to come on Dalvin in later entries.

DeMarcus Walker       DE
Projection: Late 1st
DeMarcus Walker did himself well returning to school as he was the Seminoles team leader on and off the field. It also did not hurt that he led the nation in sacks. This guy is a classic example of the fact that it can benefit a player to return to school. His draft stock soared following his senior season. I just hope the guy gets into the best situation for him. Walker led the first Seminoles class to go 4-0 against both Miami and Florida. This guy is a winner, and his work ethic could really help a lot of teams for the 2017 season....

- Noland