2015 NCAA Coaching Vacancies and Who Should Fill Them

Pretty soon here, we are going to have some unprecedented movement among FBS coaches. With several high profile jobs open already including Miami, South Carolina, and Southern Cal, it is going to be fun to watch. Who goes where and why? I will try to predict all of that for you....

First, some rules though. I will not list the same coach for more than one vacancy. The priority goes to the most high profile job which in my opinion here is Southern Cal. For each position I will select who I think the school should hire. I also attempt to only select coaches that I think would actually take the job available. As you can see below I think there will be quite a bit of turnover in college football. This will get very interesting.....

American Athletic

Houston

Tom Herman will be a candidate at every power 5 job and for good reason. The guy has been a masterfully productive coach. Houston would obviously love to keep him obviously, but I just don’t see it happening. They nab a bigtime coordinator with upside. Luckily for them, that coordinator is already on staff.

Hire: Todd Orlando (Houston Co-Defensive Coordinator)

Memphis

Justin Fuente has done a bang-up job for the Tigers and got them to be a nationally ranked and respected team. That being said, he is in line for a much better job than the one he currently has. Memphis would do well to take a rising coordinator. They do just that by nabbing the mastermind behind Ohio State’s defense.

Hire: Chris Ash (Ohio State Co-Defensive Coordinator)

Navy

I am torn on this one. Ken Niumataolo is always a candidate for a Power 5 job it seems and it seems he always stays at Navy. That very well could happen again, but I just have a feeling that a Power 5 school is able to lock him up this time. To replace him Navy looks for a guy that runs a similar offense and has experience at a military school. That search leads them to Citadel coach Mike Houston to replace Niumataolo.

Hire: Mike Houston (Citadel Head Coach)

Temple

This situation is very similar to Houston’s. Temple has a coach in Matt Rhule that is outperforming his job. It is incredibly unlikely that he will remain with Temple. There best option could well be to nab a coordinator that is outperforming their job as Conklin is doing for Pitt. Conklin has turned around the defense at Pitt after leading FIU to a historic turnaround. This guy is going to get a lot of head coaching looks.

Hire: Josh Conklin (Pittsburgh Defensive Coordinator)

UCF

Has a team ever fallen further than UCF has since their Fiesta Bowl victory over Baylor? They have gone from a BCS bowl win to looking like a team without a prayer to get a victory. They need a young, high energy guy that is well known in Florida. Terrell Buckley would be a risky hire, but the type of hire needed at this stage by the program. He could get UCF back to running the conference quickly. He won’t be the hire, but that’s who I would target.

Hire: Terrell Buckley (Louisville DB Coach)

USF

Willie Taggert is slowly improving the program, but they are taking baby steps and I believe a change can and will be made. This is about as good a non-Power 5 job as you can get with the talent advantage these guys get over most other schools by being in Tampa. You have to think they will be looking to make a change and make a splash. After swinging for the fences and missing on more prominent names, I think they end up with Mark Stoops after he gets axed from Kentucky. That would be a solid hire for the Bulls and he already has recruiting connections in Florida from his time with the Noles.

Hire: Mark Stoops (Kentucky Head Coach)

Atlantic Coast

Boston College

Steve Addazio has done a solid job changing the trajectory of the program, but 6 straight losses is 6 straight losses and I think a change is going to have to be made here. The Eagles have limited resources compared to some other ACC schools and would do well to stick with a guy that has to program’s interest at heart. They need a strong Catholic guy to take the helm. The choice here is current Oklahoma defensive coordinator Mike Stoops who previously served as Arizona HC. Stoops brings a big name and some punch to a job that will have a little bit of patience with him.

Hire: Mike Stoops (Oklahoma DC)

Miami

This job is apparently going to Mario Cristobal and that would be a solid hire for the Hurricanes. The current Bama offensive line coach is a favorite among South FL HS coaches and I think his relationships in the area are what will land him the job.

I am not giving away who I would hire just in case some decision makers for the U are reading this blog. Hey, you never know right?

Hire: Mario Cristobal (Alabama OL Coach)

Syracuse

Syracuse is a job that some, but not all expect to be open. I expect it to open up and for them to aim big and aim for a young energetic coach. That coach I would aim for if I was the Orange is PJ Fleck. His name is coming on strongly as of late in a lot of spots and I think that Syracuse could be the perfect destination for him. He is a 34 year old coach that has a lot to offer a program and he has Western Michigan humming this season. In fact, the team is winning the MAC as of now and looks to be completely turned around as a program.

Hire: PJ Fleck (Western Michigan Head Coach)

Virginia

Mike London has done a terrific job recruiting for the Cavs, but it has not resulted in wins outside of his first season. It is time to make a change. Seeing how Georgia Tech has run the coastal recently with the triple option, Virginia will look to capitalize off a younger and more exciting personality with the same style of football. This is a huge opportunity for the Cavs if they get Navy’s coach and I think they go for it.

Hire: Ken Niumataolo (Navy Head Coach)

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech will swing and miss on some bigger targets like Rich Rodriguez who will ultimately select better offers. However, they get a guy who is exciting. A guy they need. This program needs a fresh exciting offensive coach that can keep Virginia kids excited and in state. Enter the coach of one of the most exciting offenses in the country at TCU. Meachem would get kids excited and add some fun to Blackburg real quick.

Hire: Doug Meachem (TCU Offensive Coordinator)

Big 10

Illinois

Fuente is one of the top young names that will land a high profile job. He may land one much better than Illinois. However, Illinois should target him and he would be a major hire should they pull it off.

Hire: Justin Fuente (Memphis Head Coach)

Indiana

If Arkansas is expecting to be a perennial championship contender they must let go of Bielema. How he did in the Big 10 before though would have Indiana fans quite excited to have him. His relationships are in Big 10 country and not SEC country. He is a Big 10 coach and there is a school in the Big 10 that would gladly welcome him back. I believe that school is Indiana.

Hire: Bret Bielema (Arkansas Head Coach)

Maryland

It seems as if the writing is on the wall for Richt to leave UGA and it just might be time for a change for both parties. If you project where he might fit, Maryland just might be the perfect place. This is a good spot in an incredibly weak division and could be a great opportunity. 9 wins is disappointing at Georgia, but it would be a major success for the Terrapins. He could get Maryland headed in the right direction.

Hire: Mark Richt (Georgia Head Coach)

Minnesota

This is a loyal program that stood by Coach Kill through all of his health issues. Anybody would love to coach for a school with that much support. They go for a top defensive mind from a rival by bringing in Durkin. This would be a terrific fit.

Hire: DJ Durkin (Michigan Defensive Coordinator)

Nebraska

Let’s be honest, Nebraska blew the hiring process last time. They went from a solid coach to a guy that doesn’t belong in a Power 5 job. They could possibly give him more time, especially after upsetting Michigan State, but I expect a change to again be made. Nebraska swings for the fences and hits with arguably the most coveted young coach in Matt Campbell. He gives the Cornhuskers everything they want in a coach. They could not hope for much more than beating several other Power 5 schools and getting this elite coach.

Hire: Matt Campbell (Toledo Head Coach)

Purdue

Purdue had some solid years once upon a time, but now they are pretty much the laughing stock of the Big 10. It does not have to be that way. Not only does it not have to be that way, but these guys could really compete. The easiest way for this school to compete is to bring in a National Championship level coach. They do that by bringing in former Ohio State Head Coach Jim Tressel. He would welcome a return to the Big 10 at any school and they should take advantage of that.

Hire: Jim Tressel (Former Ohio State Head Coach)

Big 12

Iowa State

If your goal is to compete on the biggest stage and knock off the conference big dogs consistently, then sometimes you need to learn from what they do. Baylor has an explosive offense that few in the country can replicate. If I am a Big 12 bottom feeder like Iowa State, then I look to bring in a dynamic coach from that squad to help me score points in bunches. Bringing Kendal Briles in at Iowa State would add a lot of excitement to a program that has very little right now.

Hire: Kendal Briles (Baylor Offensive Coordinator)

West Virginia

After being passed over for the Virginia Tech job, Bud Foster will be looking on to head elsewhere. He doesn’t mind heading to a rival school because VT passes on him in their coaching search. I expect him to never be treated as a serious candidate with the Hokies and to put himself in position to get hired elsewhere.

Hire: Bud Foster (Virginia Tech Defensive Coordinator)

Conference USA

Florida Atlantic

If I am looking to gain some success for my program and knock the other in state teams down a few pegs, I might look at a smaller school being able to do that to the big boys. I see this coach take Auburn to their absolute limit and I think about how great a fit he will be for my school.

Hire: John Grass (Jacksonville State Head Coach)

North Texas

David Gibbs was the interim coach at Houston last year and holds a 1-0 career record. He has a stellar record as a defensive coordinator and some background success in the Texas region. That success, the relationships he has with HS coaches and the fact that he is a rising coordinator makes him seem like an ideal fit at North Texas.

Hire: David Gibbs (Texas Tech Defensive Coordinator)

Texas San-Antonio

Novell has seen some success and is another coach from the southwest. He will be able to recruit kids well at this spot and can help bring some excitement to the program.

Hire: Mike Norvell (Arizona State Offensive Coordinator)

Tulane

Tommy led an undefeated season at Tulane in what is probably the best season in school history. Terry is younger than Tommy and led an undefeated season at Auburn. For a school with little upside to replicate a similar season, it is certainly worth a shot.

Hire: Terry Bowden (Akron Head Coach)

Independent

No expected openings

Mid-American

Akron

Let’s not sugarcoat it here, I love Bowden as much as anyone, but it hasn’t worked at Akron. For whatever reason, they haven’t had the success that I and others envisioned. After this season it is probably best for both parties to head their separate ways. Akron will attempt to get a coordinator with upside and hits the mark if they go with Sanford.

Hire: Mike Sanford (Notre Dame Offensive Coordinator)

Kent State

Should Boston College let Addazio go as it seems they must, a small school will swoop him up. If Kent State is fortunate enough to be that school, good for them.

Hire: Steve Addazio (Boston College Head Coach)

Toledo

Toledo would prefer to keep Campbell, but he will be one of the most sought after coaches for the many Power 5 openings. To fill his impending departure, do not be surprised if a former Power 5 coach falls down to them

Hire: Mike London (Virginia Head Coach)

Western Michigan

Elko is a name on the rise. He has done well as the coordinator for the Deacs after making a name for himself with Bowling Green as their coordinator. A move back to the MAC is very possible with a head coaching offer this time. Elko is a good fit to replace the high energy Fleck.

Hire: Mike Elko (Wake Forest Defensive Coordinator)

Mountain West

Hawaii

Clune spent 2014 as the Hawaii defensive coordinator and when he left the Hawaii defense fell apart. The Warriors look to bring him back and see if he again can have a positive impact on their defense. This hard-working coach would be a solid hire for Hawaii.

Hire: Kevin Clune (Utah State Defensive Coordinator)

San Jose State

Tyson Summers leaves UCF for Colorado State and all of a sudden the UCF team looks like a high school squad. He has done a great job turning around defenses everywhere he goes and there is no reason to think he can’t do the same for a weak San Jose State squad.

Hire: Tyson Summers (Colorado State Defensive Coordinator)

Pac 12

Arizona

Although some crazies suggest otherwise, the ideal option is obviously for the Wildcats to keep RichRod. If he leaves for a more prestigious Power 5 job though, they need another dynamic mind that can recruit in the Pac 12. That guy is Scott Frost.

Hire: Scott Frost (Oregon Offensive Coordinator)

Colorado

Colorado is too proud of a program to put up with how much they have struggled since joining the Pac 12. They need a coach that can get them to be a lot more competitive. Pelini has success recruiting the area, getting a strong defense, and winning games. There is no reason the Buffs should not target Pelini.

Hire: Bo Pelini (Former Nebraska Head Coach)

Southern Cal

This job has been open for quite some time and is perhaps the best job available. They should have the pick of the litter during this offseason. Ultimately, I think they settle on Tom Herman, but this could go many different ways and will likely have a domino effect whichever way they decide.

Hire: Tom Herman (Houston Head Coach)

SEC

Arkansas

It is time to move on from the 6 wins a year that Bielema has provided the Razorbacks. If they want to make a true contending push in the SEC West, they obviously may need to do something different. When you have a big dog like Alabama you are trying to catch, sometimes you need to replicate what they do. Arkansas will make a big run at Kirby Smart as they should and they could well get him.

Hire: Kirby Smart (Alabama Defensive Coordinator)

Georgia

The home run and rumored candidate is Rich Rodriguez the current coach @ Arizona. That offense would slay in the SEC. Alabama has struggled with teams that run this type of offense and nobody is better at it than RichRod. Getting an offense that the conference juggernaut struggles with would be huge. Not to mention that he’d have a fairly easy path to the SEC Championship game to likely play Bama. If they could lure him away as I think they can it would be a major coup. However, I do think there will be some competition for Rich Rodriguez and that competition will likely be the other SEC teams.

Hire: Rich Rodriguez (Arizona Head Coach)

Kentucky

I really like Stoops and think he is the right guy for the job and a guy that will ultimately turn the program around, but I don’t think Kentucky will be that patient. They will try to go in another direction and try to go with a guy that has a proven track record as a head coach. Rhule would be a coup for Kentucky if they can Stoops.

Hire: Matt Rhule (Temple Head Coach)

Missouri

Their choice here is Florida Defensive Coordinator Geoff Collins. Although I would not be surprised if Collins got a better power 5 job as well. He would be a fantastic choice for the Tigers. To get back atop the SEC East, one way is to take a brilliant mind off the team that knocked you off.

Hire: Geoff Collins (Florida Defensive Coordinator)

South Carolina

Clemson has not only passed South Carolina, but knocked the school back a few pegs. Taking their top coach and one of their top recruiters is a great way to battle back. Build the Gamecocks on the defensive side and make them a real force in the SEC. Venables has the potential to deliver that elusive SEC title that the Ol’ Ball Coach never could. The cupboard is pretty bare though so it will take a few years.

Hire: Brett Venables (Clemson Defensive Coordinator)

Sun Belt

Georgia State

Schiano wants another shot coaching and Georgia State gets a coach that can outcoach anybody they would normally get. It isn’t everyday that a former NFL coach comes to the Sun Belt.

Hire: Greg Schiano (Former Rutgets and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach)

Idaho

With as many high profile jobs open as there are, it is entirely plausible and perhaps even likely that Riley can score a bigger job than this. However, he should be the target and could put the Vandals on the football map. After their upset of Baylor yesterday though, this is looking unlikely.

Hire: Lincoln Riley (Oklahoma Offensive Coordinator)

Louisiana Monroe

Holgersen is likely toast at West Virginia, but he was a very successful coordinator with Oklahoma State before taking over at WVU. The last time a successful Oklahoma State coach ended up in Louisiana, he won a natty. That will not happen here. However, Holgersen could make a major impact for this Louisiana school.

Hire: Dana Holgersen (West Virginia Head Coach)

New Mexico State

This is one of the worst if not the worst division 1 job. This program has not had a winning season since 2002. Their current coach is 4-20. The program looks like they have no prayer. They cannot possibly expect to get a really big name in here. They can however, try to get a young coach with a lot of upside from outside the Power 5. My choice fitting that criteria would be Bryan Vincent from South Alabama.

Hire: Bryan Vincent (South Alabama Offensive Coordinator)

As I said that is quite a change. 40+ open jobs are predicted to have change by me here. It will be interesting to see if teams think like me and how the dominos fall. Prepare to learn some new names football fans....

-Noland

Super Conference Option 2

A while back before any of us knew what the college football playoff would look like, I cautioned that we should be realistic about it. In this article I said that it won't solve everything. That was way back in December 2013 and early returns and rankings look like I am right. Controversy is sure to follow, but is there a better solution? Expanding the playoffs is truly not the answer so I came up with two other options. So this option is my 3rd. This is the 2nd Super Conference Option, but my third option overall.

Option 1
Option 2

This option is very similar to Option 2. In fact, you could say it's the same thing. There is one major difference though, in this scenario the Big 12 beats the ACC to the punch and expands to 20 first. This is actually started by the Big 10 who takes Virginia and Duke. Therefore, the conferences align differently and different teams will be left out. The rivalries will also shift slightly as a result, but here are the ground rules again.
"4 conferences
20 teams
2 divisions in each conference
9 intra-division matchups
1 rotating opponent from the other division
1 cross-division rivalry game
1 out of conference rivalry game
These rivals will be posted in parentheses next to the teams below
Some teams are without a true cross division rival, so I will have to make up a rivalry."

BIG Conference (Formerly Big 10)
Eastern Division
Boston College      (Notre Dame, Miami)
Duke                     (Northwestern, North Carolina)
Indiana                  (Purdue, Vanderbilt)
Maryland               (Nebraska , North Carolina State)
Ohio State              (Michigan, Cincinnati)
Penn State              (Iowa, Temple)
Pittsburgh               (Wisconsin, West Virginia)
Rutgers                  (Minnesota, Louisville)
Syracuse                 (Illinois, Tennessee)
Virginia                  (Michigan State, Virginia Tech)
Western Division
Illinois                   (Syracuse, California)
Iowa                      (Penn State, Iowa State)
Michigan                (Ohio State, Stanford)
Michigan State        (Virginia, Oregon)
Minnesota               (Rutgers, UCLA)
Nebraska                 (Maryland, Oklahoma)
Northwestern           (Duke, Washington)
Notre Dame             (Boston College, Southern Cal)
Purdue                     (Indiana, Arizona)
Wisconsin                (Pittsburgh, Arizona State)

The first strike against a former Power 5 conference in this scenario is Duke and Virginia leaving the ACC for the Big 10. After that major coup, Notre Dame decides to join the Big 10 figuring the ACC is done for. Once the Group of 5 leaves for the Big 10, Syracuse, BC, and Pitt are practically begging to join the Big 10.

Let's look at the updated Ohio State schedule and see how the Big 10 improved. Actual opponent in parentheses unless it is the same opponent.

8/30 Ohio State @ Boston College (@Navy)
9/6   Virginia @ Ohio State (Virginia Tech)
9/13  Syracuse @ Ohio State (Kent State)
9/27  Cincinnati @ Ohio State
10/4  Ohio State @ Maryland
10/18 Rutgers @ Ohio State
10/25 Ohio State @ Penn State
11/1  Ohio State @ Pittsburgh (Illinois Home)
11/8  Ohio State @ Duke (@ Michigan State)
11/15 Ohio State @ Minnesota
11/22 Indiana @ Ohio State
11/29 Michigan @ Ohio State

You add a road game under this scenario for Ohio State and you replace Virginia Tech, Kent State, and Illinois with Virginia, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh. Those are all upgrades in my opinion. The one downgrade may be Duke v. Michigan State, but that is highly debatable as Duke is a quality opponent. Then Ohio State will likely have to face Michigan State in the title IF they win this side.

Liberty Conference (Formerly Big 12)
Eastern Division
Central Florida       (Baylor, East Carolina)
Cincinnati              (Iowa State, Ohio State)
Clemson                (Texas, South Carolina)
Florida State           (Oklahoma, Florida)
Georgia Tech          (Texas Tech, Georgia)
Marshall                 (Kansas, Kentucky)
Miami                    (Kansas State, Boston College)
Temple                   (TCU, Penn State)
Virginia Tech          (Boise State, Virginia)
West Virginia          (Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh)
Western Division
Baylor                    (Central Florida, Houston)
Boise State              (Virginia Tech, UNLV)
Iowa State                (Cincinnati, Iowa)
Kansas                     (Marshall, Missouri)
Kansas State             (Miami, Colorado)
Oklahoma                 (Florida State, Nebraska)
Oklahoma State         (West Virginia, Oregon State)
TCU                         (Temple, Southern Methodist)
Texas                        (Clemson, Texas A & M)
Texas Tech                (Georgia Tech, UTEP)

The Big 12 acts first to expand in this scenario to get to a stronger 20 than the ACC so they are the automatic qualifier. The first team they add is Boise State adding them to their stable of classic Big 12 teams to form a Western division. They then need to add 9 teams East to go with WVU. They add Central Florida, Cincinnati, Marshall, and Temple also within the first week. They are prepared to add more mid majors, but not wanting to be left out of the playoff, FSU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech decide to bring along Miami and Virginia Tech and head to the Big 12. Realizing 12 is stupid to have as the name for a conference with 20 teams, they finally change the conference name. The new Liberty Conference ends up being the strongest conference of all.

Now let's look at the Noles schedule to prove it's strength.
8/30 Florida State @ Oklahoma State (same game in Dallas)
9/6   Oklahoma @ Florida State (Citadel)
9/20  Clemson @ Florida State
9/27  Florida State @ Temple (@ North Carolina State)
10/4  Virginia Tech @ Florida State (Wake Forest)
10/11 Florida State @ Marshall (@Syracuse)
10/18 Cincinnati @ Florida State (Notre Dame)
11/1   Florida State @ Georgia Tech (@ Louisville 10/30)
11/8   Central Florida @ Florida State (Virginia)
11/15 Florida State @ Miami
11/22 Florida State @ West Virginia (Boston College Home)
11/29 Florida @ Florida State

There is no doubt that this schedule is more difficult. Georgia Tech is the 2nd best team in the ACC and the Noles would be playing them yearly. Adding Oklahoma to the schedule is no easy task. There is no more Wake Forest and Syracuse beatdown games either.

Pacific Athletic Conference (Formerly PAC 12)
Northern Division
BYU                         (UNLV, Mississippi State)
California                  (Stanford, Illinois)
Colorado                    (Fresno State, Kansas State)
Colorado State            (Nevada, Arkansas)
Oregon                       (Arizona, Michigan State)
Oregon State               (UCLA, Oklahoma State)
Utah                           (Houston, Alabama)
Utah State                   (UTEP, Memphis)
Washington                 (Southern Cal, Northwestern)
Washington State         (Arizona State, LSU)
Southern Division
Arizona                      (Oregon, Purdue)
Arizona State              (Washington State, Wisconsin)
Fresno State                (Colorado, Mississippi)
Houston                      (Utah, Baylor)
Nevada                       (Colorado State, Auburn)
Southern Cal               (Washington, Notre Dame)
Stanford                      (California, Stanford)
UCLA                         (Oregon State, Minnesota)
UNLV                         (BYU, Boise State)
UTEP                          (Utah State, Texas Tech)

The Pac 12 moves after the Big 12 and Big 10 get started, but does decent work in expansion again. Realizing they are moving to twenty and might need to change numbers again, they decide to drop the number and simply become the PAC. They also realize the Big 12 is sticking after they expand with some strong mid majors and decide to add their own mid majors, starting with BYU. Once BYU is in the fold, they add some other teams.

Let's look at Utah State's upgraded schedule to see the impact on a quality mid major.
8/31 Utah State @ UTEP (@ Tennessee)
9/6   Colorado @ Utah State (Idaho State)
9/13 Washington State @ Utah State (Wake Forest)
9/20 Utah State @ Arizona State (@ Arkansas State)
10/3 Utah State @ Oregon (@ BYU)
10/10 Washington @ Utah State (Air Force)
10/18 Utah State @ Colorado State
10/25 UNLV @ Utah State
11/1   Utah State @ Oregon State (@ Hawaii)
11/8   Utah State @ California (@ Wyoming)
11/22  Memphis @ Utah State (11/21 San Jose State)
11/29  Utah @ Utah State (@ Boise State)

Utah State actually adds a bye week on 11/15 since they have 13 regular season games. All teams that play Hawaii usually have 13 games. These guys would no longer be playing Hawaii and would no longer have the 13th game. Quality is added throughout the Utah State schedule as well as additional home games. This schedule is highlighted by trips to Arizona State and Oregon. This is a Utah State schedule I would like to see.

South Eastern Conference
Eastern Division
East Carolina             (Texas A & M, Central Florida)
Florida                      (LSU, Florida State)
Georgia                      (Auburn, Georgia Tech)
Kentucky                    (Mississippi State, Marshall)
Louisville                   (Missouri, Rutgers)
North Carolina            (Arkansas, Duke)    
North Carolina State    (Southern Methodist, Maryland)
South Carolina             (Mississippi, Clemson)
Tennessee                    (Alabama, Syracuse)
Vanderbilt                    (Memphis, Indiana)
Western Division
Alabama                  (Tennessee, Utah)
Arkansas                  (North Carolina, Colorado State)
Auburn                     (Georgia, Nevada)
LSU                         (Florida, Washington State)
Memphis                   (Vanderbilt, Utah State)
Mississippi                (South Carolina, Fresno State)
Mississippi State        (Kentucky, BYU)
Missouri                    (Louisville, Kansas)
Southern Methodist     (North Carolina State, TCU)
Texas A & M              (East Carolina, Texas)

The SEC is last to act in this scenario because they don't need to act. They are set up the best heading into the expansion. This conference knows it just needs to get to 20 and they will be set. They add East Carolina to expand into North Carolina first. After the ACC is picked apart they want the Tar Heels as well, but the Tar Heels get them to accept rival NC State along with them. Louisville is also added from the ACC and Missouri is flipped West. To strengthen the market in Texas, Southern Methodist is added along with Memphis. The SEC West is still much stronger than the East, but by adding North Carolina and Louisville, the SEC has added two schools that can compete for titles on that side of the conference from time to time.

Now let's look at Auburn's schedule since they are considered to have the toughest schedule in the country.
8/30   Arkansas @ Auburn
9/6     Memphis @ Auburn (San Jose State)
9/20   Auburn @ Missouri (9/18 @ Kansas State)
9/27   Auburn @ Southern Methodist (Louisiana Tech Home)
10/4   LSU @ Auburn
10/11 Auburn @ Mississippi State
10/25  South Carolina@ Auburn
11/1   Auburn @ Ole Miss
11/8  Texas A & M @ Auburn
11/15 Auburn @ Georgia
11/22  Nevada @ Auburn (Samford)
11/29  Auburn @ Alabama

The only replacements here are Memphis, Missouri, Southern Methodist, and Nevada for San Jose State, Kansas State, Louisiana Tech, and Samford. You can argue that each of those is an upgrade and Nevada is a huge upgrade over Samford. This schedule is a win.

Final Wrap-Up

Under this scenario the two biggest snubs are Wake Forest and Connecticut based on their placement when the BCS scenario began. UCONN was left behind once again with no conference gaining a huge strategic advantage by adding them. Wake Forest was left behind because the SEC refused to add a 4th Carolina school and the ACC Schools that left for the Big 10 and Big 12 felt no loyalty toward Wake. As the weakest ACC school currently, I believe Wake would have to act first in a scenario such as this if it felt the ACC being picked apart.

I think I like this option better than the other Super Conference Option, but I am not sure if I like it better than the relegation option. I do like keeping the historic rivalries though. How bout' that last FSU-Canes game?
Which of the three options do you like best?
In my next piece, you can find out what happens to the service academies that get left out if they get left out. It is probably the best thing for those academies.
Have a great Thanksgiving tomorrow!

-Noland

More College Football Picks

I was running some errands this morning and we are anxiously awaiting the little one. These predictions are a little later than usual considering some games are in progress, but most of the ones I am picking are after the noon start anyway. Also the current scores have no effect on my predictions.

 

Georgia Tech over Middle Tennessee

Army over Stony Brook

NC State over Miami

Wake Forest over Duke

Texas A&M over Arkansas

Georgia over Tennessee

Clemson over BC

UNC over Idaho

UVA over Louisiana Tech

Navy over San Jose State

 

Virginia Tech over Cincinnatti

The Hokies are playing at Fed Ex Field in a very interesting game. These Cincinnatti Bearcats beat Pittsburgh by 24. The same Pittsburgh team that upset the Hokies a few weeks back. This is a huge game for the ACC. Cincinatti is a very strong team. In fact, I would not be disappointed in the Bearcats joined the ACC as the 16th team. Do not sleep on the Bearcats. I got the Hokies in an extremely close game. This could easily be the game of the day.

The only game more important for me is...

Florida State over USF

The game is in Tampa. I now live in the Tampa area. However, the baby is coming at any moment, so I will not be attending this game. Luckily for me, I do not think USF stands much of a chance. I mean how could they USF is just FSU backwards. They are not in our league. The only way this one is close is if our players bought into the hype to much. That is not impossible to believe given our recent history, but we should win big. Go Noles!

Upset Special

New Mexico over Boise State

No blue field. No bs. New Mexico is not expected to win this game. Boise coming off a tough game. Just a hunch. Trap game in the Mountain West.

 

LSU over Towson

South Carolina over Kentucky

Alabama over Ole Miss

Most Valuable Team In The ACC

Earlier this summer, there was a posting on Tomahawk Nation about whether FSU was really the most valuable team. Our fanbase was claiming it, as many of us wanted a Big 12 move. The move was desired because many of us were upset with the new TV deal, and some freeloaders in our conference. Many from the outside said that FSU was not the big draw in the ACC anymore. So when that statement was made, someone investigated. That is where we got this piece from Tomahawk Nation. I find it interesting an recommend reading it, but I will break down some of the major findings here.

The ACC was expected to be a powerhouse when Tech and Miami came in. Heck, FSU was supposed to bring credibility to the conference when they came in all the way back in 1992. FSU did for a while, but fell off. Some people this summer even said that FSU was supposed to save the ACC, but they are actually killing it. Woah woah woah. Let's go to the facts and the report before we make insane statements like that. FSU is not killing anything.

Carolina fans think FSU overvalues their team. Many teams think FSU overvalues their team, well lets look at the chart.

The data used by the person providing this report was number of people viewing each team's games in the ACC for football and basketball. It was not even skewed for the other sports where FSU has a far better following than the rest of the ACC (especially in baseball). Most of the money in TV comes from those sports as well, so they were excluded as I said earlier.

The data had some faults to it, but provided a good overall picture.

Here are the teams ranked in order of value for 2011
FSU
Clemson
UNC
Miami
Virginia Tech
Duke
Georgia Tech
NC State
UVA
Maryland
Wake Forest
Boston College

So what does that tell us?
If you go to the site and look at the chart, it shows that FSU has greater impact than the bottom 3 teams combined. It also shows us that FSU is easily the most valuable team in the ACC. It also shows that Clemson is clearly #2. Those two teams had legitimate beef if they wanted to bolt. The impact of the top two teams basically equals the impact of the bottom 5 teams. Including a UVA team that nearly won their side of the conference last year.

This also shows us that Georgia Tech and NC State would not be as attractive as you think when shifting conferences. If two teams did leave it would seem to make sense that Clemson and FSU are the logical choices.

You have to realize that Boston College had one of their worst seasons in recent memory in both sports. Also that Wake Forest has had good years. However, Wake doesn't have the alumni base of FSU and Clemson. Also Maryland's numbers were skewed because they played Notre Dame and Notre Dame is the most valuable team in the country. Not the best team, but the most valuable $$$ wise. It is why Notre Dame has their own TV deal.

Who is overpaid and underpaid based on revenue sharing?
Because the ACC is a revenue sharing league where profits are shared. Some schools do not bring in what they earn. FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, and Tech are all underpaid and undervalued in the current ACC. Sure there are other benefits to being in the conference, but these teams bring in more than they are getting back. The other 7 benefit off the top 5. Sure, it probably changes some years, but I am willing to bet that FSU has carried the conference for years.

Now you can see that the data backs it up. When anyone says we overvalue FSU, point them to the article. Point to us being near the top of merchandising sales every year. Point to the fact that we carried the ACC for years. Point to the fact that we bring in way more than we take. Point to the fact that we are givers and not takers. Go Seminoles!

-Noland

Big 12 Speculation Continues

The Big 12 sources say nothing is done yet, but rumors are abound about teams jumping to the conference. Some say it is a done deal with FSU and Clemson moving to the Big 12. They say the age of the superconference is upon us. FSU and Clemson are in and Virginia Tech is on deck. Some even say that Notre Dame is about to join the conference. Is any of it true?

Well, not quite, but it could be headed that way. We also know several pieces of information that can help us have some informed discussions on this issue.

Texas has been trying to get Notre Dame in the Big 12 since 2010 and seems to have made a little bit of headway. Unfortunately for them, Notre Dame has a TV Deal with NBC through 2015. It seems unlikely that a move would happen before then. Unlikely, but not impossible. The Big 12 could come up with some sort of unique revenue sharing for Notre Dame to work around their current deal. They do something similar for Texas and it would be difficult, but not impossible. Notre Dame would certainly bring more to the table for a Big 12 TV deal even if it was in a limited fashion.

In addition to all of that, the athletic director at Texas is saying to some in the Big 12 that he thinks Notre Dame is seriously looking at the Big 12. The most obvious point about Notre Dame in the Big 12 is that nobody knows how it would work. It will certainly be interesting to follow though.

Everyone is trying to figure out what works best for them. It is a confusing time and nobody knows for sure what will happen, including my Seminoles.

The rumor is that FSU and Clemson are talking more and more about moving as a package deal out of the ACC. FSU and Clemson would be wise to move together for travel costs, current rivalry, and other reasons. It seems that the ACC schools will have to make the move. Another rumor is that nobody wants to see the ACC de-stabilize and that either FSU and/or Clemson are going to have to make the first move.

Also apparently the SEC has told the Big 12 to see if it really wants to grow beyond 12. Is the SEC scared that in a superconference situation the Big 12 gets better than the SEC? Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame and VT together may make the Big 12 the premier conference.

A high level source in the Big 12 says the conference will end up with 12 and a half schools. That source speculated that the teams would be FSU and Clemson or FSU and Louisville. The source seemed fairly certain that FSU would be one of the teams moving. The half was for Notre Dame. It seemed that the source says the league will be 12 teams unless Notre Dame joins at which point they could move to 14. Wild stuff. I would be down for FSU playing Notre Dame every year starting in 2014 though. Sign me up for the Big 12.

-Noland

The Guys @ Warchant Question Barron's Statement

I will not post the whole article here, because I encourage you to check out warchant. I will post some major ideas though. I will also say that Gene Williams picked Barron's statement apart. This conference expansion thing hasn't gone away after all.

Williams says that the information given by Barron on third tier rights is misleading. He argues that FSU not being rewarded by the ACC for their brand name is a major problem with the current deal. It is not really fair that Wake Forest gets the same cut as FSU for football. The argument about travel is misleading according to Williams. He says that the difference right now is 2.9 million as Barron said, but it will increase with FSU leaving for the Big 12. If FSU and Clemson, VT, or Miami leave for the Big 12 that difference grows. After the re-negotiated deal, there could be a 6 or 7 million gap. Imagine if all four leave like I had originally proposed. The Big 12 deal would be huge.

The final argument Williams makes against the statement is about academic perception. Williams says the academic perception of FSU leaving shouldn't matter. It is interesting the argument he gave as it is the same as booster president Andy Haggard. When a person gets a degree from FSU they don't think gee I am glad I got a degree from a school in the same conference as Duke and UVA. FSU students get a degree from FSU. Why do we care if Texas or Duke are in our conference? Does it really affect our academic perception if we are in Duke's conference?

My favorite point is the one about exit fees. It seems to be the most relevant to the discussion. This idea about exit fees is probably going to be the main issue for FSU leaving or staying. Williams points out that the Big 12 paid 1/2 of WVU's exit fee. Why wouldn't they do the same for FSU and say VT who would bring more of a brand name? This is a complicated issue and may take some more time to play out.

-Noland

The Move to the Big 12 NEEDS to Happen

This move needs to happen. Take Clemson, VT and Miami with us, but it needs to happen. I know our school is worried about the perception of leaving the ACC academically, but that doesn't really matter. Our athletic department needs to cover their costs and the ACC negotiated a horrible deal. The projected revenue coming from the ESPN deal is expected to be backloaded a great deal. That won't help programs that are in current budget deficits very much. It will also make the gap between the haves (Big 12 and SEC) greater than the have nots (ACC and Big East). We cannot expect to continue to compete at a high level when those schools are raking in twice as much as us.

We sell more tickets in the Big 12. Sure, the schedule will be harder too, but does that hurt the SEC. If you lose a game in the SEC you still have a chance. We lose to VT in the ACC next year and we are done. If we move to the Big 12 and lose to VT, we can make up for it with games against Ok, Ok state, and Texas. It sets up a defacto national championship of Big 12 against SEC unless USC or Oh State go undefeated. It also brings in more money. We also don't have to worry about selling tickets from home games. Every single game against Big 12 opponents should sell out, except for maybe Iowa State.

Over the last two years FSU has finished in the top 10 of the Director's Cup twice, won the ACC in basketball, had a sweet 16 appearance, won two bowl games each time while having the best record in the state. We cannot expect that to continue if this move is not made. The budget deficit will likely increase due to a poor TV deal and lower ticket sales. People just aren't coming to see the Noles play Duke. Nobody cares. Let's make the bold move and see what happens. Let the ACC sink themselves, but don't let them take us with them. President Eric Barron said that FSU is not seeking alternatives, but that should change ASAP. We need to join WVU and make a good decision for ourselves.

-Noland

Wang Signs With The Raiders

When I was growing up in Ashburn, Ed Wang lived down the street from my house. We played basketball all the time. He went to my high school and played on my high school football team obviously. I remember one time my Freshman year I played Ed Wang in basketball for $10 and he destroyed me. However, he is one of the classiest guys I have met and I am extremely proud of him for everything he has accomplished.

Ed Wang is the first ethnic Chinese player in the NFL. Originally drafted by the Bills, Wang is now a member of the Oakland Raiders. He succeeded at Stone Bridge, Virginia Tech, and made the NFL. I have little doubt that he will succeed again. Congrats Ed on all your success. God bless you man and best of luck.
You can follow Ed on facebook here.

-Noland

Seth Greenberg Fired

The Virginia Tech Hokies have decided to fire basketball coach Seth Greenberg. This comes as a complete shock to me and I am sure many other ACC Basketball fans. Greenberg has been consistently good as a coach at Tech and has made a weak basketball program a decent ACC program. For three straight years Virginia Tech had a great case to get into the tournament, falling just short each time. He did make an NCAA tournament and finished with a solid record. Greenberg went 167-117 at VT. It will be interesting to see who the Hokies hire, because I find it highly unlikely that that person will be a better coach than Seth Greenberg.

Greenberg will land on his feet. This was his third job and he has had winning records at the previous two. He has served as the chair of allcoachescare.com and helped to rebuild the gulf coast in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Seth Greenberg is a good man.

-Noland

Schools Honoring Virginia Tech

As most of you know, this past April 16th marked the 5th anniversary of the horrible shootings at Virginia Tech. I will never forget that day and what it must have been like for those that actually went to Virginia Tech. Some of my best friends are Hokies and I know that the day was very tough on all of them. It was touching though to see the whole nation reach out to Virginia Tech and continue to reach out. The way that university responded to the tragedy just says a lot about the school. The fact that others keep honoring Virginia Tech tells you all you need to know about what the rest of the nation thinks of the Hokies. Here is an example.

This is Ohio State's practice from April 16th

-Noland