College Football Playoff Preview

In the preseason I picked two of these teams to be here, Alabama and Florida State. Although, I did predict that Alabama would lose 3 games if it went with Blake Sims at QB and was proven wrong. I also said that I was expecting Ohio State to lose one of their opening two games with their true freshman QB. The Buckeyes lost to Virginia Tech and were playing even with Navy until their athletes pulled away. That loss I thought would knock them out of the hunt, but they rebounded nicely to make it. Before the Braxton Miller injury I considered the Big 10 a toss-up between Ohio State and Michigan State. Post injury I saw that loss and maybe a few more. Great job by the Buckeyes this year at handling adversity. The Pac 12 race I predicted to be the tightest because I thought UCLA would be a tad better and picked the Bruins to win. However, I realized the Ducks would be good and thought they would just miss out. Those Ducks had a great season and will be playing my Noles in the Rose Bowl.

After weeks of controversy and predictions from the committee and college football fans everywhere, I think the committee mostly got it right. While I would have liked to see Baylor over Ohio State, Baylor did not play a conference championship and was a co-champion while Ohio State won the Big 10 outright. The order of the teams is not right as the only undefeated team is #3, but the teams are fine and I like every other fan am excited for this playoff.

Let's start with the Rose Bowl...

Rose Bowl

Jan. 1 5 PM ESPN

Oregon v. Florida State

The Seminoles are undefeated and have won 29 straight games. No matter how you slice it, what they have done in this run is incredible. This team has not lost in the calendar year 2013 or 2014 and there is nothing anyone can do about that. Every Florida State fan should live in the moment and enjoy that fact. These Noles are on one of the most historic runs in college football history and a win in this game would be their 30th straight victory.

Interesting note in this one is that the Noles first game in 2014 was at the Rose Bowl and their second game was in Dallas. If the Noles win the Rose Bowl on New Years Day, their first game of 2015 will be at the Rose Bowl and their second game will be in Dallas. It is funny the cycles that exist in college football.

Now, to the game....Marcus Mariota has had an outstanding season and nobody is arguing with his Heisman run, but let's not forget the teams he has done it against. This guy faces very poor pass defense in the Pac 12. In fact, there is only one top 86 pass defense on Marcus Marriota's schedule. The Stanford Cardinal is ranked #7 in pass defense. In that game he wasn't having a 300 yard game and threw an interception. Every other defense he faced was ranked 87 or lower against the pass. Yes, he had a great season, but those numbers were inflated a little bit and FSU has a better secondary than this team usually faces. It should be interesting to see how this offense matches up with the Seminoles defense. Oregon's offense is basically Georgia Tech's with a passing threat and if Mariota can get the linebackers in coverage, he can have a big day. The secondary though is better than that of what Oregon has faced so they will have to exploit the lack of depth FSU has at linebacker. This is huge for the Heisman trophy winner's draft stock. Decimate the Seminoles D and guarantee a top 10 pick. Struggle and have teams second guess themselves on selecting you.

When FSU has the ball, they get to play Oregon's defense which is inferior to most that they have played. FSU has played 5 top 15 defenses (Clemson, Louisville, Florida, Boston College, and Miami) while Oregon is not even close to that. In fact, Oregon's defense is ranked 81 behind pretty much every team Florida State has played. This is not to mention that Florida State has had 3 weeks to prepare for Oregon and Jameis Winston skipped the Heisman ceremony to prepare and watch film. From the awards circuit last year, Winston gained 20 pounds and wasn't able to prepare as well as he has this time. Now, while Marriota is doing all the traveling, Winston is plotting and getting ready. He also got that look in his eye during the Georgia Tech game that had been missing the rest of this season, but was apparent last year. This guy is ready. His WRs are healthy and he got 3 weeks to work out with the true freshmen receivers and gain a little chemistry. Winston is ready to go off. Add in the emergence of Dalvin Cook and it will be very tough for Oregon to stop this offense. FSU really wants to get to 30 and Jameis Winston just wins. You have to kind of expect him to win again at this point. I know I am not betting against him.

Another factor that has come up that will aid the chances of FSU's success is that Oregon's top DB had a season ending injury in bowl prep practice. All-American Ifo Ekpre-Olomu suffered a devastating knee injury and will not play. While that really sucks and I wish he was okay it does effect the game. Oregon cannot cover Florida State without him and this game could get ugly. It will absolutely be a shootout and Oregon needs to hope Florida State either has a slow start or has just as much trouble stopping their offense. I am very excited for this one tomorrow night...
Florida State 63 - Oregon 42

Sugar Bowl

Jan. 1 8:30 PM ESPN

Alabama v. Ohio State

Alabama is the favorite in this one and the favorite to win the title period. They have been there before and had success. The Crimson Tide have also dominated recruiting in recent years. Just based on their recruiting success and always being #1 in recruiting, one would expect the Tide to be in the top spot. However, there are some factors that make this game not as much of a sure thing as you would think. Alabama is 5-8 against the spread this season while Ohio State is 8-5 against the spread. The Tide is favored by 9.5 points and Ohio State could cover easily. The question is will they? More importantly the question is, can they win it outright? For that answer we need to look deeper into the match-up.

This is about as good as it gets in college football. You have the two coaches that most consider the best at least in the x's and o's department. Meyer won 2 National Championships at Florida and Saban has won 4 (3 at Bama, 1 at LSU). The incredible 6 National Championships between these two coaches is an absolutely amazing job at coaching by each. The two have met up 3 times against each other with Meyer winning the first match-up and Saban winning the next two. In fact, Saban is only one of 4 active coaches who has bested Meyer multiple times. However, Meyer is one of very few coaches able to prepare with multiple weeks as well as Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide. Urban Meyer is 7-2 in bowl games for a .772 Winning Percentage. He is 4-1 in BCS level bowls, with his only loss coming to Clemson last season. Meanwhile, Nick Saban has a 8-7 record in bowls for a .533 winning percentage. He is 5-2 in BCS level bowls. While it is true that you don't want to face Nick Saban with multiple weeks to prepare, it may be more true to say that about Urban Meyer. With multiple weeks to prepare and coming off of bye weeks, Meyer has been absolutely fantastic.

Sure, Meyer can flex his muscle as a coach, but the key here will be whether his team has anywhere near the talent to compete with Alabama. At the end of the day, they just don't have the horses and I don't think the extra prep time will be enough to compete with the much more talented Alabama squad. The Buckeyes are down to their third string QB and have an offensive coordinator that is leaving for a head coaching gig at Houston. Those are tough things to overcome when you are playing a squad this talented. Any distractions are negatives in a game of this magnitude and that is not good for Ohio State.
Don't underestimate Meyer coming up clutch in the big game. There is also the chance that they get to Blake Sims and force him to make mistakes. If Ohio State can force Sims to make mistakes and make Sims beat them, they have a good shot. That is their chance. Sims plays well and it is a blowout, but if he plays poorly, the Buckeyes have a chance. At the end of the day, expect Saban to pull out the victory.

Saban and the rest of the country will get what they want....The FSU-Alabama showdown is coming. Saban against his former offensive coordinator.
Alabama 35 - Ohio State 24

National Championship Game

Jan. 12 8:30 PM ESPN

Florida State v. Alabama

This game is one that has seemed destined to happen for about 3 years. In 2012, the Seminoles choked blowing games against NC State and Florida. The following year it was Alabama's turn blowing a game against Auburn. FSU was much better than Alabama in 2013, but it was still the match-up everybody wanted to see. Now, this season it will finally happen, assuming both teams win their semi-final match-ups on their superior talent. Everybody wants the Saban-Fisher match-up and we should finally be getting it. This game will get serious ratings and everyone wants to see how Fisher does against his former boss.

I love that picture of the three coaching legends. These guys are close, but make no mistake about how badly these two want to beat each other. Not just to be National Champion, but this game has a tremendous effect on the future of college football. Alabama will be expected to win and if the lines opened today are a projected 9 point favorite. FSU will be riding a 30 game winning streak if they get to this one.The storyline entering this game couldn't be much better. There is only one thing that could make this more interesting and that would be if Jakob Coker beat out Blake Sims at QB.
Speaking on Blake Sims and QB, the QB position is by far FSU's biggest edge. The Seminoles have a guy that has never lost a game and is considered historically great by many. While the Crimson Tide have a guy that is their biggest chance of losing. There is absolutely no comparison of the QBs in this game. Jameis is simply much better. FSU also has more talent in the secondary than Alabama so I would give that edge to the Noles as well. The passing game edge has to go to FSU.

They may have the edge in the passing game, but Alabama has an edge up front. Many believe that Alabama has a huge edge here, but I don't think it is that big. FSU will likely have Eddie Goldman and Nile Lawrence-Stample back for the playoff and that difference should not be understated. The Noles also have allowed only 2 sacks in the past four games. Since, the switch of Cameron Erving to center and Roderick Johnson to LT this line has been fantastic. Johnson hasn't been going against scrubs either, in the Florida game, he face Donte Fowler. Playing in just a handful of games, Roderick Johnson was able to be named to the Freshman All-American Team. While I give Alabama the edge here, it is a very small edge.
I also give Alabama an edge with their running game. That edge is very small though as well because FSU has been running the ball much better lately. Dalvin Cook is an absolute superstar in the making and will likely be a huge factor in this game.
Alabama is much better at linebacker, but the Noles have a solid starting group. FSU just seriously lacks depth at the LB position.
At the end of the day this will be a dogfight and will be what everyone is hoping for, but I just can't see Alabama stopping Jameis Winston. I don't see anyone denying this kid his destiny. He is supposed to win out in college football. He is the best there is in college football and he will not lose a college game. The supporting cast is too strong and the Noles have been too disrespected to fail. Sure, they could lose due to all the parity this year, but this is the best team and it seems to be their destiny. The most talent, the best team, the most battle tested, these Noles are ready. Jameis Winston is ready and I cannot wait. This passing game is too good to be denied.
Florida State 56 - Alabama 42

Finish the mission. Add to the hardware. Make it 31 straight and leave no doubt. Florida State Football. Go Noles!

-Noland