Looking Back At My Sports Predictions

Before making predictions for the upcoming season, I believe that it is important to look at the predictions that I have made in the past. This helps for accountability purposes and as a good frame of reference for the next set of predictions. I will go over the major hits and misses and the close calls in this piece. Hope you enjoy.

March Madness Predictions
Here is my 2013 March Madness Prediction. My most confident pick to make it to the final four that season was Georgetown and they were upset early. Since, I have vowed to never pick Georgetown to advance far again. I missed on several picks. However, I did pick Louisville to win the National Championship and still won my pool.

My 2014 predictions were not posted on this blog. I picked Michigan State to win it all in my main bracket, but did have UCONN winning one of my brackets. I was not even close on Kentucky this past season. My biggest mistake by far though was being so critical of the selection committee on their selection of Dayton. The selection committee really does a great job and proved the haters (including me) wrong once again. Dayton made the Elite 8 and played a great tournament. I still think UVA got an unfair shake with a loaded bracket though.

NCAA Football Predictions
I actually already did a recap of my college football predictions for 2012 late in the season that year. It can be found here. I predicted Georgia would win the National Championship that season and they came so close, but eventually fell to Alabama. I absolutely love that I hit on the rise of Duke football and the return of FSU to the BCS. Both predictions were certainly not universal. FSU fell a little short of my expectations that season, but took a valuable step forward.

My 2013 predictions were better in some spots and a lot worse in some spots. Those predictions were not ones that anybody else was making though. I don't like following the script.
I picked FSU to go undefeated and win their bowl game, but I did not think they would be selected for the National Championship. Then FSU went out and completely destroyed every team they played and I was pleasantly surprised.
Stanford won the Pac 12 in impressive fashion as I predicted, but did not finish undefeated.
Louisville did not win the American Conference losing a head-to-head game with the University of Central Florida. Central Florida came out of nowhere and even won a BCS Game.
Texas and Nebraska didn't come close to the National Championship Game. This is the worst prediction I have had to date. Texas was so bad last year it was not even funny.
South Carolina had a strong year, but didn't win the SEC. They did beat Clemson though which is one game that I had wrong. Their best player played injured the entire season and did not sniff the Heisman as I predicted. Who could have predicted a Freshman QB to win the Heisman though?
I was wrong about Clemson beating SC, but I did have them winning a BCS game and they did just that knocking off Ohio State!
My other big misses were that Virginia Tech was not a Top 15 team and Michigan State was a Top 5 squad. I had Michigan State finishing ranked 22nd.
Sometimes you are glad to be wrong though and these predictions are proof of that.

Major League Baseball Predictions
My 2013 season predictions were okay.
We will look at the American League first. I picked the Boston Red Sox to finish last in the AL East largely due to their breakdown the year before and they won the World Series. I did not think that Napoli and Victorino would get them that far. Apparently, I underestimated the ability of a healthy Shane Victorino, because that team exceeded expectations for sure. The 2014 Red Sox have him hurt and Jacoby gone and they are in last place. Cleveland got a wild card and I also predicted them to come in last place. Anaheim and Baltimore did not come through as division champs for me either. Albert Pujols was far from an MVP candidate.
It was not all bad though, I predicted Tampa Bay to win the wild card game and had the bottom two teams in the AL West correct as well. Additionally, I had the easiest pick in the league which was the Detroit Tigers winning the AL Central. There were a couple other teams I had correct like Minnesota in 4th, Texas in 2nd etc., but its more important to get the playoff teams right and I was not too accurate at that.
For the National League, I fared a little better. This league I got most of the playoff teams correct. While I missed on the Nationals in the playoffs and had them winning the division, I didn't pick them as far as many others. There were several people picking the Nationals to win the World Series. I foolishly picked St. Louis to finish 4th though. What a horrible miss. St. Louis would obviously make the playoffs like they do every year. I also predicted the incredibly consistent Giants to win the entire National League and they missed the playoffs. They have been so good with Posey in the lineup though that it was hard to resist. There are 5 playoff teams and I missed on 3, but I was incredibly close. I missed on the Nationals who were the next team out, the Giants who are always in the fight, and the Pirates who I correctly predicted would finish 2nd in the division.
Like I said about the National League I was pretty good. I correctly had Atlanta and Cincinnati in the playoffs. I had Pittsburgh and the Dodgers in contention as well and they both made it. The last place teams in the National League Central and East were also correct. The National League Cy Young was obviously going to Clayton Kershaw if he stayed healthy and I nailed that prediction. I flip flopped San Diego and Colorado in my predictions, but they were at the bottom of the National League West as predicted. I also correctly predicted that Milwaukee would not be a factor, but I had them in 3rd place and not 4th. I missed my predictions on the Mets and the Phillies standing order by 1 game too. I don't think that's bad at all over 162 game season.

For the 2014 season I did not make any predictions on this blog. I would have picked the Dodgers to win the World Series though and Clayton Kershaw to win the Cy Young again. In the American League I would have picked Felix Hernandez because he's the next best pitcher in the game. The American League Champions I would have picked would have been the Angels. I have been counting on Hamilton and Pujols to have bounce backs for a while now, so we will see if they finally do it. There is a lot of baseball still to be played.

NBA Predictions
I have yet to make season predictions for the NBA, but here are predictions I have made about the NBA. In this piece after Lebron won his 1st title, I predicted that the Spurs would win another title before the Heat trio came close to catching them. It was another Duncan vs. LeBron piece and it was largely correct.
Here I incorrectly predicted the Spurs to win the NBA title in 2012 as the playoffs were getting underway. However, I still dispute some of the Thunder's comeback in the Western Conference Finals that year. There were quite a few Joey Crawford shenanigans. I also incorrectly predicted though that the Heat would not make the finals and that they would be knocked out by the Celtics. Very wrong!
Way back in December of 2012, I guaranteed that as soon as David Stern or Joey Crawford retired, the Spurs would win the next NBA Championship. Stern retires mid-season and the San Antonio Spurs won the NBA Championship. It was easy to predict because the Spurs were screwed out of multiple titles by Joey Crawford. Duncan has 5 rings and should have at least 7 by now.
After the Thunder won that 2012 Western Conference Finals, I predicted that the Spurs dynasty was not done and was proven right.
I also called for the removal of Joey Crawford again after that season, but didn't make any new predictions. I just talked about how the Spurs got robbed and Crawford needed to stop doing Spurs games.
You see most of these predictions were centered around the NBA being similar to pro-wrestling and Joey Crawford and Stern needing to go. Crawford didn't do a deciding game this year and Stern is gone and magically the Spurs are NBA Champs! Who could have guessed?

NFL Predictions
In 2012 my predictions for the NFL season were decent. I did not have the Redskins making the playoffs and was surprised at the success of two rookies there. The New York Giants are who I predicted to win the division and that team ended up finishing 9-7. I did not have the Minnesota Vikings making the playoffs and figured they would struggle coming off of Peterson's devastating injury. I had the Rams getting the wild card though instead of the Seahawks. The only AFC Team I missed in the playoffs was the Indianapolis Colts (who had a rookie QB), I foolishly picked Buffalo, but surely I wouldn't make that mistake again....
Correctly, I predicted the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North, but so did everyone else. Additionally, I had the Atlanta Falcons winning the NFC South correctly. The San Francisco 49ers also won the NFC West as I predicted. I got the order of all the AFC playoff teams right with the exception of Houston having home field and as I said the Colts making it. 5 out 6 playoff teams is pretty dang good though if you ask me. Although some of those predictions were pretty easy.
The playoffs were not quite as good to me as I had the Houston Texans advancing to and winning the Super Bowl. I figured that Denver would eventually fold in the playoffs given Peyton's playoff history, but did not expect Joe Flacco's dominance in the playoffs. Flacco was amazing during this postseason and knocked everyone out. The Falcons made a good run at the Super Bowl too, but San Francisco was too strong and it was hard to deny the all brothers coaching match-up. These predictions were pretty solid though other than the Greg Schiano one. That was an awful pick. Not as awful as my 2013 NFL predictions though.

For the 2013 NFL season I had a disaster as far as predictions. There was not a lot I had right. I predicted the wrong team to win every division in the NFC. I had Washington, Minnesota, New Orleans, and San Francisco. The latter two were actually solid predictions, but those first two were colossal misses. I also had Atlanta making the playoffs and Carolina finishing in last place. There were only two correct playoff teams for the NFC (San Fran and New Orleans). I once again thought the Rams would break through and I still believe they are incredibly close, but they fell just short. That NFC West is so loaded that I am not embarrassed by that pick at all. Washington, Minnesota, and Carolina though were horrible misses. Picking San Francisco to win the Super Bowl was also a really good prediction. Those guys were so close and were the second best team in the NFL all year long. They came the closest to knocking off the champs.

The AFC saw me pick slightly better for the playoff teams, but I made two major mistakes. One I am not embarrassed about is picking the New England Patriots to fall out of the playoffs. This is a team that had an awful last season and it was reasonable to think they would struggle mightily. The Bills having the injury to EJ Manuel also effected the race a little bit in my opinion. He missed out of several valuable snaps. Tom Brady is absolutely terrific though and deserves the benefit of the doubt. The other awful mistake in the AFC was once again picking the Texans to make it to the Super Bowl. Two swings and misses on that prediction. I was not the only person to make that pick, but they had an awful season. I got 3 of the 6 playoff teams right and actually picked San Diego to have a better record than they did. San Diego was the next team closest to a playoff berth in my predictions.
For the individual awards and predictions I had mixed results. EJ Manuel was hurt for a majority of the season so my prediction on him winning the rookie of the year was off. Keenan Allen, and Eddie Lacy had fantastic years and one may have beaten him anyway though. Eddie Lacy ended up winning the award, but I would have picked Allen and Manuel being a factor may have changed the votes. Another Sam Bradford injury prevented Jeff Fisher from his coach of the year, but I still think that was a decent pick. Picking Adrian Peterson to be MVP back-to-back was pretty foolish now that I think about it. Having that many carries in consecutive seasons would have ruined him. There was no way he'd produce at that high a level either with the other teams watching more film. Which leads me to the guarantee about Ponder. Not a smart call on the Ponder guarantee. My last dumb guarantee was my bonus guarantee about CJ Spiller. Spiller didn't even sniff the yardage I was assuming. This guy has got to start producing soon or I consider him a huge draft bust. He has been nowhere near as good as advertised yet. Vernon Davis did have double digit touchdowns though with 13 in the regular season. He also had 2 in the playoffs. Finally, Mario Williams was top 5 in sacks as well as I predicted. Mario Williams was 4th in the league and 2nd in the AFC in sacks. The only person that beat Mario Williams in sacks in the AFC was Robert Mathis who has since tested positive for PED use. Mario Williams is an absolute monster.

-Noland