Of Course I Still Love EJ Manuel and Ponder Too!

Coming out of college I had a great amount of respect for the Quarterbacks that Florida State produced under Jimbo Fisher. My respect for them had more to do with their class off the field than anything they did on the field. Those two quarterbacks that graduated, EJ Manuel and Christian Ponder helped lead the FSU resurgence and they were great guys. Each is/was very hard not to like. You see, Ponder went to my church at FSU and was nice as could be and I had a class with EJ Manuel while I was in undergrad and it was the same story. Each treated every person they met with dignity and respect. There were no negatives with either off the field and they have been nothing but class.  Each of them has done a fantastic job conducting themselves as men.

There is another side to the story though. Each of these fantastic individuals was a first round draft pick and considered overdrafted by the "experts." Both of these guys were considered a "reach." I was okay with where each of these guys were drafted although I thought each could last a tad longer in the draft. It seems that because they were drafted higher than expected many want or expect them to fail. I thought they would do well and root/rooted for their success, but many wanted them to fail. It is difficult to see why because of the men/people they are, but some people seek enjoyment in that. It seems very premature to me, but people are entitled to think what they are entitled to think. I will explain though why I think that kind of thinking is wrong.

Let's start with EJ Manuel. First, it was an incredibly weak QB class that EJ was apart of. There was no guy that anyone would consider a franchise QB, but I believed EJ would be a very capable starter that could get a team into the playoffs. There was nobody else I or any other team thought that was capable of doing that. The Bills agreed with me and took EJ in the 1st round. If you need a QB and there is only one decent one available, you may have to draft him 10-15 spots higher than expected. QBs get overdrafted all the time. No other QB looked close to NFL capable in that draft other than Geno Smith to some people (not me). Smith was apparently a prick in all his meetings with teams which made the decision easier for Buffalo. EJ was picked in a good spot by them. My concern with EJ had nothing to do with anything on the field, it had to do with durability.

Those concerns were justified when EJ Manuel was hurt several times during his rookie season. A rookie season in which he was supposed to sit behind Kevin Kolb so he could better prepare himself to be an NFL QB. However, Kolb had a career ending injury and Manuel had a fantastic preseason which led many analysts to think he was the right guy for the job. His injury plagued rookie season though limited him to parts of 10 games that rookie season. They went 4-6 with him last year as a rookie. Buffalo was 2-4 without him. Small sample size and not much information to gather. This year Buffalo was 2-2 with Manuel in what was basically still his rookie season. For some reason they benched him and they were able to win the first game post Manuel, but it was a poor decision by Buffalo. It was short-sided and something most teams would not do. EJ Manuel was benched for his low QB rating and performance, but look at the list of guys who had a lower QB rating than Manuel in NFL history of 1st round QBs through the same number of games.... (E.J.'s was 78.5)
Steve McNair 78.0
Michael Vick 76.9
Troy Aikman 76.4
Eli Manning 73.4
Drew Bledsoe 72.0
John Elway 71.9
Alex Smith 69.2
Phil Simms 65.5
Jim Plunkett 61.0
Archie Manning 60.7
Terry Bradshaw 52.9

Look those names don't make Manuel successful, but they help to prove that Manuel has not been that bad. They also help prove that there is a lot of hope for EJ. Still, EJ has handled the very difficult situation with nothing but class, which is the real reason to love the guy. After his team beat Detroit despite being benched, EJ tweeted out...
"Great team win against Detroit yesterday. #BillsMafia"
After getting trashed by fans and the media, that is the class that EJ Manuel displayed while not playing. Last night he tweeted out a good luck message about the Buffalo Sabres starting their season. Manuel loves Buffalo and is nothing, but class. However, Manuel is just one of many FSU Qb's loaded with class.

This obviously brings us to the Christian Ponder situation. Ponder is very similar. He was picked 12th overall when many analysts had him rated as a 2nd round QB in 2011. Most had him behind those he got picked behind and realized it was not the best QB class. Todd McShay did think that Blaine Gabbert was the greatest QB prospect ever at the time, but others were more realistic. It was a weak class. Cam Newton was the obvious #1 pick and he has been the most successful. The next most successful is Colin Kaepernick who was somewhat surprising to be picked at the top of round 2. I do not remember anybody saying Kaepernick would be a stud, but I could be wrong on that. Those are the two QBs that were clearly better than an injury plagued Ponder. 2 were clearly better. Ponder was drafted behind three QBs. He was also drafted behind Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker. Neither of those two has outperformed Ponder so it was more a weak QB class than anything.

Ponder has also like Manuel had an injury plagued career. He only started all 16 games once in his career during that 2012 season that the Minnesota Vikings went to the playoffs. Ponder was injured for the playoff game though and the Vikings went on to lose to Green Bay.

These guys aren't beloved by me and other Seminole fans for their on field heroics in the NFL, but for the way they represent the university. They are loved for what they did for FSU while they were there and helping to start our resurgence. Both of these QBs more importantly are great people. If you look around the NFL right now, good people should be celebrated. Class should be praised and we should root for these kind of guys. Each of them will always have fans for that reason. I will always be a fan for that reason. I had a class with EJ Manuel at FSU and Christian Ponder went to my church, and neither one of them could be nicer to the people around them in those settings. Of course, they must produce on the field as well, but we can be proud of people they are. I must admit that my expectations have lowered some on Ponder, but I will always be a fan. EJ Manuel will be a capable NFL starter IF he can stay healthy. I firmly believe in EJ to succeed. No matter what though, I will always root for these two and many others will as well. It is good to see athletes who uphold the Garnet and Gold.

-Noland

NFC North Draft Grades

Chicago Bears

1(14) Kyle Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech)

2(51) Ego Ferguson (DT, LSU)

3(82) Will Sutton (DT, Arizona State)

4(117) Ka’Deem Carey (RB, Arizona)

4(131) Brock Vereen (SS, Minnesota)

6(183) David Fales (QB, San Jose State)

6(191) Pat O’Donnell (P, Miami)

7(246) Charles Leno (OT, Boise State)

Best Pick: Brock Vereen

Brock Vereen is the younger brother of NFL runningback Shane. Not the best indicator of success, but seeing the NFL bloodlines does not hurt. Again, not a huge point of emphasis, but Vereen had the 2nd best time among all safeties in the 3 cone drill, the 20 yard shuttle, and the 40 yard dash. Additionally, Vereen did the most bench press reps among all safeties at the combine. All that tells you is that Vereen is strong and fast which is verified on tape. Watching the tape also shows you that he is one of the hardest hitting safeties in this draft. He won't be a starter right away and needs some work, but this is great value in Round 4. Vereen will be an impact player for the Bears down the road.

Summary: Eventhough the Bears signed Jay Ratliff in Free Agency they needed depth at defensive tackle. Ferguson provides that depth. Vereen and Carey were great value picks in the 4th round. Like I said, Vereen could start early and will eventually be an impact player. Kyle Fuller is a really good cover corner and the Bears didn't reach for anybody or have any truly bad selections. Nice job by Chicago.

Grade: B+

Undrafted Free Agents
Cody Booth (OT, Temple)
James Dunbar (OG, TCU)
Brandon Dunn (DT, Louisville)
Ryan Groy (OG, Wisconsin)
Christian Jones (LB, Florida State)
Devekeyan Lattimore (LB, South Florida)

Jordan Lynch (RB, Northern Illinois)
Tana Patrick (LB, Alabama)
Lee Pegues (DT, East Carolina)

I love the Dunn signing. He is another guy that provides depth and is a great guy to take a shot on as an undrafted free agent. Jordan Lynch of course was the Heisman finalist QB that the Bears are gonna try as a runningback. He has a very slim chance of making the roster. Ryan Groy is another guy that has a shot to make this roster.
The linebackers will all have a shot to make the roster. Most likely to make the roster is Christian Jones. Before the season Jones was considered by some to be the most likely Seminole to go in the 1st round. His production did not match that, but he has loads of talent and is extremely versatile. Many teams will be disappointed that they passed on Christian when they see what he does for the Bears.

Detroit Lions

1(10) Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)

2(40) Kyle Van Noy (LB, BYU)

3(76) Travis Swanson (C, Arkansas)

4(133) Nevin Lawson (CB, Utah State)

4(136) Larry Webster (DE, Bloomsburg)

5(158) Caraun Reid (DT, Princeton)

6(189) TJ Jones (WR, Notre Dame)

7(229) Nate Freese (K, Boston College)

Best Pick: Travis Swanson

One of the best, if not the best center in the draft. A starter from Day 1. Great in zone blocking schemes. Highly talented and a good worker. Solid fit for this offense. Great value pick in Round 3.

Summary: Swanson was a terrific pick in round 3. They reached on Van Noy though and its hard to justify a 1st round TE with the holes they had. This is a team that could have really benefited from trading down. I can't believe that they didn't address the secondary until a 4th round reach on Nevin Lawson. They got good value late with Jones and Reid who along with Swanson prevent this from being a bottom 5 draft.

Grade: C-

Undrafted Free Agents
Chad Abram (FB, Florida State)
Alex Bullard (OG, Tennessee)
Justin Couplin (S, William & Mary)

James Franklin (QB, Missouri)
Justin Jackson (LB, Wake Forest)
Cornelius Lucas (OT, Kansas State)
Gabe Lynn (S, Oklahoma)
Jacob Maxwell (TE, Louisiana-Lafayette)
DJ Morrell (OG, Old Dominion)
Andrew Peacock (WR, Appalachian State)
Mohammed Seasay (CB, Nebraska)

The best signing by far for the Lions and one of the best signings of this period was Gabe Lynn. This guy is a playmaker at safety which is the Detroit Lions' biggest position of need. Out of any team's undrafted free agents this is as likely as any to make the team. Lynn will make the team and likely have an impact this season. The Lions are so thin at safety, that Justin Couplin has a great chance to make it as well. These guys were very smart to sign with Detroit. Detroit probably should have added another corner though just to see if they could find a diamond in the rough to help the weak secondary. Seasay has a good chance to make the roster for that reason.
Chad Abram has a decent chance to make it depending on how Caldwell wants to use the fullback. If he uses the fullback like he did in Baltimore, then Abram makes it. However, if it's more like the fullback use in Indy, Abram will be squeezed off the roster.

Green Bay Packers

1(21) Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (FS, Alabama)

2(53) Davante Adams (WR, Fresno State)

3(85) Khyri Thornton (DT, Southern Mississippi)

3(98) Richard Rogers (TE, California)

4(121) Carl Bradford (LB, Arizona State)

5(161) Corey Linsley (C, Ohio State)

5(176) Jared Abbrederis (WR, Wisconsin)

6(197) Demetri Goodson (DB, Baylor)

7(236) Jeff Janis (WR, Saginaw Valley State)

Best Pick: Jared Abbrederis

If you watch the tape of Abbrederis against first round pick Bradley Roby, you will be shocked that Roby was a 1^st rounder and Abbrederis a 5^th. The Wisconsin WR absolutely destroyed Roby. Getting a guy this polished in the 5^th round is a big score for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers. The fan base has to be jacked that they keep this guy in state.

Summary: This draft was just the typical above average draft. Very slightly above average. Clinton-Diz will make an immediate impact. Adams was a slight reach, but will be quality. Thornton was picked in a good spot. Rogers, Linsley, and Bradford are good values for where they got selected. As discussed Abbrederis is a steal at the point he was selected. The last two picks have great upside for their spot in the draft, but don’t expect impacts from them. Not a bad draft at all, but nothing spectacular.

Grade:  B-

Undrafted Free Agents
Denico Autry (LB, Mississippi State)
Jake Doughty (LB, Utah State)
Jayrone Elliot (LB, Toledo)
John Fullington (OL, Washington State)
Carlos Gray (DE, North Carolina State)
Adrian Hubbard (LB, Alabama)
Demetruce McNeal (FS, West Alabama)
Raijon Neal (RB, Tennessee)
Mike Pennel (NT, Colorado State)
Justin Perillo (TE, Maine)
LaDarius Perkins (RB, Mississippi State)
Chase Rettig (QB, Boston College)
James Sims (RB, Kansas)

Joe Thomas (LB, South Carolina State)
Wilson Van Hooser (WR, Troy)
Ryan White (CB, Auburn)

Thomas has good tackling ability and put up an impressive vertical jump score. Jayron Elliot led Toledo in sacks. James Sims put up terrific numbers at Kansas despite playing behind a terrible offensive line. McNeal was dismissed from Auburn University and ended up at West Alabama. Hubbard is a very talented kid from Alabama. Nothing else intriguing here for the Packers.

Minnesota Vikings

1(9) Anthony Barr (LB, UCLA)

1(32) Tedy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville)

3(72) Scott Crichton (DE, Oregon State)

3(96) Jerick McKinnon (RB, Georgia Southern)

5(145) David Yankey (G, Stanford)

6(182) Antone Exum (CB, Virginia Tech)

6(184) Kendall James (DB, Maine)

7(220) Shamar Stephen (DT, Connecticut)

7(223) Brandon Watts (LB, Georgia Tech)

7(225) Jabari Price (DB, North Carolina)

Best Pick: David Yankey

Yankey could be an immediate starter for the Vikings. He is a beast in the middle of the offensive line and it is incredible that he was available in the 5th round. An awesome fit. This is one of the most physical players in the draft and the new coaching staff is all about that. This guy is one the Vikings just have to be thrilled about. Mike Zimmer is happy with this pick.

Summary: I talked about how Zimmer was happy with Yankey, but he likely is happy with the entire draft. This is a very quality draft by the Vikings. You have Yankey in the 5th round and Exum in the 6th providing tremendous value. In the 3rd you get Scott Crichton who some had as a 1st rounder and Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon of course was the Georgia Southern RB who had the game-winning touchdown against the Florida Gators. Georgia Southern beat the Gators without throwing a pass, which kind of shows you what McKinnon can do (or that the Gators are just THAT bad). Anthony Barr is a phenomenal pick and instant starter. Bridgewater I am mixed on, but they got him at a good spot.

Grade: B+

Undrafted Free Agents
Pierce Burton (OT, Mississippi)
Kain Colter (WR, Northwestern)
Rakim Cox (DE, Villanova)
Isame Faciane (NT, Florida International)
Donte Foster (WR, Ohio)
Matt Hall (OT, Belhaven)
Zac Kerin (C, Toledo)
AC Leonard (TE, Tennessee State)
Eric Lora (WR, Eastern Illinois)
Antonio Richardson (OT, Tennessee)
Tyler Scott (DE, Northwestern)
Jake Snyder (DE, Virginia)
Austin Wentworth (OG, Fresno State)
Dominique Williams (HB, Wagner)

Rakim Cox is the best of the group, but there is nothing here.

-Noland

2013 NFL Season Predictions

The NFL season is here. Sit back and enjoy my predictions for this year. I will go division by division and bold the playoff teams. I will also give records of where I think the team will finish.

NFC East
Washington Redskins (11-5)
New York Giants (7-9)
Philadelphia Eagles (6-10)
Dallas Cowboys (5-11)

NFC North
Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
Green Bay Packers (9-7)
Chicago Bears (6-10)
Detroit Lions (3-13)

NFC South
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
Carolina Panthers (3-13)

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (14-2)
St. Louis Rams (10-6)
Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (12-4)
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
New England Patriots (7-9)
New York Jets (2-14)

AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Cleveland Browns (4-12)

AFC South
Houston Texans (14-2)
Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10)
Tennessee Titans (2-14)

AFC West
Denver Broncos (11-5)
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Oakland Raiders (3-13)


MVP
Adrian Peterson
I do not like picking a repeat winner of an award, and rarely do it, but AD is the best. Peterson is an absolute animal, if he is healthy, I see him doing big things. Could he break the rushing record for a year? Probably not, but he will have another monster year if he stays healthy.

Coach of the Year
Jeff Fisher
Everyone is very high on the Seahawks and the 49ers. One of those two teams are who most people are picking to win it all. Almost everyone has both of these teams making the playoffs. I do not have that prediction. I have the 49ers winning it all, but I think St. Louis passes Seattle this year. Sam Bradford establishes himself and the Rams make the playoffs. All of these happening make Jeff Fisher the Coach of the Year. Although Doug Marrone getting the Bills into the playoffs might win this award. That all depends on EJ Manuel's health though. I have been high on EJ and think if healthy the Bills take it. However, with EJ's knee injury, I am a little more confident in my Rams pick, so I will go with Fisher. I wouldn't be surprised if St. Louis won the division.

5 Bold Guarantees outside of records
My main guarantee was that Percy Harvin would get hurt, but that already happened so...
1)  EJ Manuel is Rookie of the Year.
2) Vernon Davis will have double digit touchdowns
3) Christian Ponder throws for multiple touchdowns in a Minnesota playoff win.
4) Anquan Boldin has another Super Bowl Catch and is Super Bowl MVP.
5) Mario Williams will finish top 5 in the NFL in sacks.

Bonus Guarantee: CJ Spiller has 2500+ yards between rushing and receiving

NFL Playoffs Round 1
Washington Redskins over Atlanta Falcons
St. Louis Rams over New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens over Denver Broncos
Buffalo Bills over Kansas City Chiefs

Round 2
San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams
Minnesota Vikings over Washington Redskins
Cincinnati Bengals over Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans over Baltimore Ravens

NFC Championship
San Francisco 49ers over Minnesota Vikings

AFC Championship
Houston Texans over Cincinnati Bengals

Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers over Houston Texans

-Noland

Jaws Talks Ponder

Over on espn.com, Ron Jaworski is breaking down the NFL's best QB's. Jaws is usually pretty good at breaking down the position and is releasing one name a day so I was intrigued when I saw he was doing this. Luckily, when I found out about this analysis, Jaws was done breaking down my favorite NFL QB.

That QB is former FSU standout Christian Ponder. The current Minnesota Viking went to my church when I was in Tallahassee. He is a great football player and a great guy. However, you don't want to hear my analysis you want the analysis of Jaws.

The full article is here. I will break down some key points to the breakdown in this post. Ponder checked in @ #28 on Jaw's countdown. Really, 28 QBs better than Christian Ponder? I understand not putting him in the upper half because he is a rookie, but 28 guys better? That would mean that Ponder is only better than 4 starters. I can name 10 teams that don't have a better QB than Ponder.

Washington
Dallas
Tampa Bay
San Francisco
Arizona
Seattle
New York Jets
Miami
Buffalo
Tennessee
Jacksonville
Indy
Cleveland

That is just the teams that have QBs that are currently worse than Ponder. We aren't even talking about potential of Ponder as a starter. That is 13 teams. So by that standard Ponder should be no lower than 19th on the countdown. 19 is 9 spots higher than he is currently. I understand Alex Smith and Tony Romo being ranked higher out of those teams, but that is it. Personally, I think both teams would be far better without those two, but I understand why some people like them. Other than that, how do you not have Ponder higher? Heck, I'll give you  Flynn and Sanchez. Giving you those 4 QBs though, Ponder should still be nowhere below 23rd.

Anyways, back to Jaws analysis. Here are some quotes from Jaworski...
"Ponder has many of the attributes I look for when I evaluate quarterbacks. I saw pocket movement, the ability to move within the pocket, maintain downfield focus and deliver the football with accuracy. I also saw the added dimension of getting outside the pocket in response to pressure with the speed to create an explosive gain. And how about this for a rookie quarterback: Ponder’s rating was 114, the NFL’s best inside the 20. His movement was also a big factor, as was his willingness to make stick throws into those small windows, a necessity in the tight red zone area. …

As he begins his second season, Ponder needs work as a progression reader. He had a tendency to predetermine some throws, and, in addition, there were too many times he did not recognize the coverage."

It will sure be interesting to see if Ponder can prove some of the haters wrong. Jaws seems to think the right things in regards to Ponder, but he missed the mark some as well. Even Jaws admits that Ponder had the highest QB rating of anyone inside the 20. Additionally, Ponder had a horrible o-line last year. The guy can play. This year he will prove Jaws sold him short.

-Noland

Vikings WR Suspended 3 Games

Things just got more difficult for Christian Ponder. One of his top receivers, Jerome Simpson, just got suspended for three games. Simpson received the suspension after drug charges came his way. The WR  received a 2.5 lb bag of marijuana at his house. What an idiot. Jerome Simpson is most famous for an amazing touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals while he was with Cincinnati. That is pictured below.

-Noland