Should the Combine/Pro Days Matter for Draft Picks

Yesterday, ESPNU aired Stanford's Pro Day. This reminded me of an important question, should this type of assessment matter when it comes to when players are drafted? I actually wrote a paper on this in college as part of my assessment class. The topic of the paper was whether the NFL Combine was a valid type of performance assessment.

After gathering information on this and past years it became apparent that the NFL Combine was highly overrated when it came to evaluating prospects. The same held true for pro days. You just cannot measure what an athlete will do in shorts (for the most part). There is one test that correlates positively to pro performance. The only test that does this is the vertical jump. Every other combine test has no effect on the on field performance of an athlete.

I am not saying that these days are worthless, but I am saying teams should not get carried away. At best these events should be used as tiebreakers between athletes. Let's hope your team watches the film more than the pro day or combine. If they do base a pick on the combine, let's hope they base it on the only test that matters.

The top performer at vertical jump was UCONN WR Kashif Moore with a jump of 43.5
The top runningback was VT's David Wilson @ 41.0
The top DB was Presbyterian's Justin Bethel @ 39.5
The top LB was Cal's Mychal Kendricks @ 39.5
The top QB was Robert Griffin III @ 39.0
The top DL was USC's Nick Perry @ 38.5
There are four TE's tied for the top score w/ 36.0
The top OL was Donald Stephenson @ 35.5

-Noland

Charley Casserly's Mock Draft (2 Rounds)

Charley Casserly released his mock draft on April 13th and it has some very interesting predictions on it. I will post some of the more interesting picks, but you can get the full mock here.

First Round
2) Robert Griffin III. No surprise here from Casserly, but my cousin Adam thinks RG3 is the greatest. I am not entirely convinced, but I like RG3. I do not think the Redskins should have given up so much to get him though.'

3) Minnesota Vikings select Matt Kalil (USC). I will go on record in saying that Kalil will be an all-pro within 5 seasons.

5) Tampa selects Morris Claiborne (LSU). Help with the aging secondary, let's see if this is the way the Bucs actually go.

6) St. Louis selects Justin Blackmon (OK St). I am a big Justin Blackmon fan and think he and Sam Bradford will do big things over their careers. Great pick if it happens.

9) Carolina selects Fletcher Cox (Miss St). Cox is an animal and will do big things in the pros. If Carolina gets him it will be a great selection. This guy will be a stud.

11) Chiefs select Luke Kuechly (BC). Kuechly is an awesome linebacker. He is my personal favorite player in this draft, even more than the Seminoles. I just love the way he plays. His grit and effort will make up for what he lacks in physical ability. I do not think he is the best player in this draft, but I think he will do great. There will be another post on Kuechly in the near future.

14) Dallas selects Mark Barron (Bama). Casserly thinks the world of Barron. He has the safety rated 7th overall and wrote an article about how great Barron is. The former GM even had Barron rated ahead of former great Sean Taylor.

29) Ravens select Peter Konz (Wisconsin). He would serve as Birk's eventual replacement, possibly playing at guard right away.

2nd round
36) Tampa selects David Wilson (VT). Wilson would be help for a weak Tampa Bay backfield. Wilson is the 3rd rated back on most boards. I think the Hokie has a pretty good chance at being a solid back on most teams.


47) Jets select Andre Branch (Clemson). This would be tremendous value with the 47th pick. Branch can play.

55) Atlanta selects Zebrie Sanders (FSU). Sanders will be the first Seminole off the board without a doubt. The question is when Sanders will be selected. I must say that as a Seminoles fan I think Sanders is overrated, but he can be a solid pro. Needs to control the penalties.

60) Baltimore selects Chris Givens (Wake). Givens is fast and would give the Ravens one of the fastest receiving cores in football. Givens would be a huge upgrade over the mess that is Lee Evans. Givens, Boldin, and Smith is a great receiving group. Lets see if this actually happens. Joe Flacco would be one happy man with this.

We are getting close. Should be interesting.

-Noland