With the NFL Draft starting tomorrow, I wanted to give my ten stories I am most going to follow heading into the draft. The seemingly obvious stories like Jameis being picked #1 will not be included. However, before I get into that, if Jameis isn't picked #1 I will be shocked and quite upset with the Bucs franchise. Here are my 10 biggest storylines I will be following heading into draft day.
10) Where do the QBs end up?
We think we know that Jameis will be going #1 to Tampa, but what else happens with the QB position. It is quite intriguing at this time. Does Mariota really go #2? I really want Mariota to succeed, but I have him as about the 4th QB in this class and I just don't see his skills translating to the pros. The two other QBs I have between him and Jameis, Brett Hundley, and Garrett Grayson will be good NFL QBs IMO. I want all these guys to be quite successful which puts me apart from the Winston haters. I like all 5 of these guys, but Winston is heads and shoulders above the rest. I also truly believe that Mariota and Petty are system QBs. Really want to be wrong about those two.
9) Where does my second highest rated player (Danny Shelton) go?
I haven't really gotten to get into it on here, but I love Danny Shelton as a football player. I am probably one of the only guys who has him above Leonard Williams (although I have Williams at 3). Shelton is a former state champ shot putter which just shows the amazing strength he possesses. My favorite quality of his though is that as big as he is and as hard as he is to move, he has incredible quickness. This guy is going to be an All-Pro. Williams has a great shot as well though.
8) Is Todd Gurley the 1st RB off the board and does he go round 1?
Now don't get me wrong I love Todd Gurley's game. While I don't agree with taking a RB in round 1 I would agree that Gurley is the exception to the rule, but only if he is healthy. The guy isn't healthy though. He has been banged up. The last time a RB that was damaged goods was the best back since Adrian Peterson it was Darren McFadden. The Cowboys new RB has had an injury plagued career and hasn't come close to his potential. Gurley and McFadden were very similar in college whether you want to acknowledge it or not. Picking Gurley in this spot is too big of a risk to me. Because of the injuries, I actually have Ameer Abdullah as the highest RB on my board. Abdullah is a late 2nd round pick to me as well. Likely Gurley and Melvin Gordon will be overdrafted and it might not stop there.
7) When do the Clemson defensive players come off the board?
The Clemson Tigers had the #1 defense in college football last season and absolutely shut down Oklahoma in their bowl game. Their highest rated is DE/LB Vic Beasley who can go anywhere from 5th to 15th. Beasley will be a top 15 selection though. One of the more underrated players in this draft in my opinion is DT Grady Jarrett who is projected to go in Round 2. DE Corey Crawford is a projected 6th round draft pick. This defensive line was the strength of Clemson's team last year and could make some NFL teams quite happy.
6) Who is the 1st offensive lineman selected?
Most mocks I have seen have Iowa's Brandon Scherff as the top tackle and a projected pick at #10. 10 seems low to me because there are some quality linemen in this draft. Scherff and Peat are both top 10 players I think and an argument can be made for Le'al Collins as well there. They have similar grades for me and will all be very quality pros. Which of the 3 gets picked 1st will be quite interesting to me.
5) How many defensive lineman go round 1?
The deepest position in this draft is defensive line. Based on grades myself and others have given, there should be a plethora of defensive lineman selected early. 3 of my top 5 players in this class are defensive lineman (Shelton, Williams, and Fowler). I know several others are in the same boat. Add in the aforementioned Clemson studs and FSU's own Eddie Goldman and there are a lot of options early. We haven't even mentioned guys like Randy Gregory either. My prediction is that around 10 defensive lineman go in Round 1. That is about 1/3 of the picks being used up front on defense. My highest rated of this group is Danny Shelton as I stated earlier and my favorite is Goldman.
4) Will the Gators have multiple 1st round picks?
We all know that Dante Fowler is a Top 10 pick, but DJ Humphries is also rated high. There is a very likely chance that the 4-8ers will have two first round picks. I can't really remember a time when a worse team had two first round picks. The 4-8 season wasn't this season, but both players were a part of it. The Gators have been awful in each of the last two seasons.
3) What do the Bucs do outside of the Winston selection?
It is widely believed that Jameis Winston will be the Bucs selection at Round 1, but what do they do after that. This team needs some depth up front on both sides and I hope they take advantage of the new draft format. After selecting Winston it would be nice to see the Bucs trade down in Round 2 and acquire more picks. Seeing Winston with one of his college teammates like Tre Jackson in Round 2 would be awesome. This team has a few needs and one trade down or a trade from next year's draft could really help this thing get turned around. Maybe they can trade next years 1st for the opportunity to get back in the 1st round and come away with Winston and say Andrus Peat. There are a lot of exciting options for the Bucs in this draft after they take Winston.
2) Where do the Seminoles land?
I am very excited to see where the Seminoles end up as 10-11 players are expected to be drafted. Outside of Winston the next highest rated player is Goldman and he will likely be a 1st rounder. Ronald Darby and Cam Erving are also possibilities to go round 1. Tre Jackson will likely be a 2nd round selection with a lot of intrigue. At the end of Day 2 and possibly into day 3 it will get really exciting with my two favorite Noles in this draft (other than Winston of course). Nick O'Leary and Rashad Greene were fantastic Noles and seeing where they end up will be awesome.
1) Do the Seminoles break the record for most players drafted in a 3 year span?
The current record for players drafted in a 3 year span is 28. That record is held by Miami (2002-2004) and USC (2008-2010). The Seminoles have a good chance to break it. During the 2013 draft the Seminoles had 11 players selected. They had 7 more in 2014. That means that they had 18 players selected the last two years. With 10 more this year they would tie the record and with 11 more they break it. See what 29 straight wins will do for you. That #29 is special for the Noles 29 straight wins and 29 draft picks in 3 years.
FSU has 10 players considered locks
Jameis
PJ Williams
Eddie Goldman
Ronald Darby
Cam Erving
Tre Jackson
Mario Edwards
Rashad Greene
Nick O'Leary
Josue Matias (not as convinced about him)
These players would tie the record. Add in Karlos Williams and they break it. Bobby Hart is also considered a possibility to be drafted, but I don't see it happening. Hart was the weak link on the FSU offensive line and seemed to regress each season. It will be exciting to see if the Noles can do it. I think they break it with exactly 11 guys this year for a grand total of 29. These two will certainly help the Noles get there....
Next week I will let you know where all those Seminoles land and if they break the record.
Go Noles!
-Noland
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