12.17.2014

My Bowl Picks And Analysis

There are some very intriguing bowl match-ups this season. Now that teams are more frequently slotted and the bowls have less choice, it has given us quite a few interesting match-ups. I love the bowl season and projecting who will win. Here, I will pick the winners of each game and give a little analysis of each game. Bowl season kicks off December 20th.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Nevada v. Louisiana Lafayette
Dec. 20 11 AM ESPN
Nevada seems to have played a more difficult schedule and played several quality teams very tough. They went toe to toe with Arizona and Boise State among others. These teams have one common opponent in Boise State. While both teams lost to Boise, Nevada lost by 5 and Louisiana Lafayette lost by 25. This is practically a home game for Louisiana Lafeyette though which is certainly a factor. Still, the Wolfpack come into this game hungry having not won a bowl game since 2010 and pull of the win.
Nevada 42 - Lousiana Lafayette 34
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Utah State v. UTEP
Dec. 20 2:20 PM ESPN
Utah State has a better record, more talent, and has played tougher competition. All of Utah State's losses were to teams that are bowl eligible while UTEP dropped a game to Texas Tech. Other than the early season hiccup against Tennessee, Utah State has looked pretty good. This team had its worst games when traveling East, but this game is in New Mexico which is not East. They have looked fantastic out West and should end the season on a high note here. Utah State should take this one easily.
Utah State 35 - UTEP 21

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Utah v. Colorado State
Dec.20 3:30 PM ABC
The coach for the Colorado State Rams has left for Gainesville, so it should be interesting to see how the team plays for the interim coach in this one. How they play without their coach will be the major story here. They are a very good team and this was one of the best match-ups, but will they show up with a new man in charge? It is interesting to see if team's show up or not when this happens. I believe that Colorado State is a fraction than Utah who did not play as well against Colorado as State did. However, I also believe that it will be difficult for Colorado State playing this game under the interim coach. I expect Utah to pull this one out.
Utah 30 - Colorado State 24

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Western Michigan v. Air Force 
Dec.20 5:45 PM ESPN
Air Force has a chance to win its 10th game in this one after a 2-10 campaign last year. I don't expect Western Michigan who won less games on a less competitive schedule to derail that. Not only did Air Force win the Commander and Chief trophy this year, but they were one of two teams to knock off Boise State this year. This is a legit team coming into bowl season on a mission. No disrespect to Western Michigan, but they simply are not as put together as a team. Air Force should roll in this one.
Air Force 35 - Western Michigan 17

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
South Alabama v. Bowling Green
Dec.20 9:15 PM ESPN
This is a sneaky good match-up in bowl season. Two teams that are highly motivated and highly underrated. It also happens to be the first ever bowl appearance for South Alabama who just moved up to FBS. Both teams closed poorly as Bowling Green lost their last 3 and South Alabama lost 4 of their last 5, but they should each come out swinging. Whether the MAC or the Sun Belt is more difficult to navigate is very tough to say this season as well. Usually it would be the MAC, but this year, Bowling Green's division in the MAC is awful with only 2 bowl eligible teams. While South Alabama might have a little less talent coming up from FCS so recently, I think they win this game. You can never underestimate that this is a team's first bowl appearance. Add in that they were passed up last year and these guys will come out fired up for this one.
South Alabama 24 - Bowling Green 20

Miami Beach Bowl
BYU v. Memphis
Dec.22 2 PM ESPN
This is a very exciting match-up in the Miami Beach Bowl. On one hand you have BYU who looked fantastic early on before their QB was injured and their season got a lot less interesting. Before Hill's injury, there was serious Heisman talk for him and talk about BYU in the playoff. That hope was derailed in early October with the injury, but this is a great team that went 8-4. Add in a game against the 9-3 champs from the American Athletic Conference and this is a fantastic game.
Memphis has looked really great this year and beat all the teams they were supposed to, except Houston..The other two losses came against UCLA and Ole Miss who many people had contending for the title this year. BYU went winless in October after heartbreak over the injury, but an undefeated in the other games. Can BYU remain undefeated outside of October? Yes, I think they can. There is just more talent on that BYU sideline and it should show in this game. It will be close though.
BYU 30 - Memphis 27

Boca Raton Bowl
Northern Illinois v. Marshall
Dec. 23 6 PM ESPN
This is another fantastic match-up we don't normally see in these minor bowl games. You have arguably the best two mid-major programs this year fighting against each other for respect. These teams match-up well and it should be fun. Marshall was undefeated until very late in this season when a 2 point conversion in overtime caused Western Kentucky to beat them. Until that, Marshall was bidding for the New Years Bowl spot from the Group of 5. The loss ended those hopes, but this team deserves respect and will be fighting for it in this one. However, Northern Illinois has been playing incredible football at the end of this season. They lost their last two bowl games and they have been craving respectability throughout football. I think they get it this time as they upset Marshall.
Northern Illinois 41 - Marshall 35

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Navy v. San Diego State
Dec. 23 9:30 PM ESPN
I am typically very high on Navy football and give them more credit than most people, but I do not see it in this one. The game is in San Diego making it basically a home game for San Diego State. The fact that it is in that location doesn't even bring up the point that San Diego State is a much better team than Navy this time around. This one shouldn't be close, but if I am wrong about a bowl game other than Florida State's, I hope it is this one...
San Diego State 42 - Navy 24

Popeyes Bahama Bowl
Central Michigan v. Western Kentucky
Dec. 24 Noon ESPN
This game is tough to call because the teams have similar resumes. Western Kentucky closed better and had the huge upset over Marshall to end the season. However, the two worst losses that Central Michigan endured were while their workhorse runningback was facing legal trouble. That is resolved and he is back on the team which makes this a difficult selection. Both offenses are tough to stop and both defenses leave much to be desired. A shootout should be expected.
Central Michigan 49 - Western Kentucky 47

Hawaii Bowl
Fresno State v. Rice
Dec. 24 8 PM ESPN
Now comes the most exciting location of bowl season in the Hawaii Bowl. These teams must be thrilled to get this draw, but each needs to remember to focus. Both of these teams are disappointing, but at least Fresno State played a much tougher schedule. That Rice schedule is not difficult and they lost to Old Dominion who until this season was an FCS team. Losses to Notre Dame and Texas A & M do not look as good as they did early. However, at the time it looked like those two teams were terrific. It seems these 6-7 teams that get into the bowl games when they don't really deserve it seem to find a way as well. Finally, Fresno State was in this exact game 2 years ago so the seniors know this atmosphere. Rice is still at the point where they are happy to be in this game. That is a big difference when preparing for a bowl game.
Fresno State 28 - Rice 20

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Illinois v. Louisiana Tech
Dec. 26 1 PM ESPN
Illinois has looked awful for the majority of Tim Beckman's tenure, but they have looked pretty good these past two games. They were able to knock off Penn State and Northwestern the final two weeks of the season to earn a bowl bid. If not for those two weeks, I would pick Louisiana Tech in a rout, but I love the way Illinois finished the season. That being said, Louisiana Tech has looked pretty good this entire season and has an offense that will be incredibly difficult for Illinois to stop. That Illini defense is not a strong unit. In 8 of their 13 games, Louisiana Tech has put up 40+ points and if this gets into a shootout, they likely win because they have more offense. The biggest issue for Louisiana Tech is motivation in this game after a tough loss in the conference championship game to Marshall. That being said, I think they are ready to play and ready to win.
Louisiana Tech 45 - Illinois 40

Quick Lane Bowl
Rutgers v. North Carolina
Dec. 26 4:30 PM ESPN
North Carolina has been trashed on by fans outside of the ACC all year and they really are not THAT bad. Their defensive play is not good, but they have outscored quite a few opponents and don't have any awful losses. They have given up at least 27 in every game this year, but scored at least 28 in all but three of the games. These guys played Notre Dame tough while Notre Dame was clicking on all cylinders and were one of two teams to beat Georgia Tech in the regular season. They then sent Georgia Tech to the ACC Championship by beating Duke. Some may not understand this team, but they are a decent squad and a better one than Rutgers. Rutgers best win was against 7-5 Maryland and they just have not looked very good all season. Carolina SHOULD dominate this game.
North Carolina 49 - Rutgers 24

Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl
NC State v. UCF
Dec. 26 8 PM ESPN
The Wolfpack may be 7-5, but they are a good 7-5 team. I would have liked to see them get an SEC team like Arkansas, but they got UCF and that is ok. These guys have something to prove and are much better than people give them credit for. The way they played that 1st half against the Seminoles was the best anyone has played against the Seminoles all year long. While the Seminoles crushed their hopes and dreams that day, they rebounded nicely after a mid-season meltdown. They actually even dismantled their rivals from Chapel Hill in the last week of the regular season. This team is out to prove something and not many teams can derail them. That includes American Athletic Conference Champ UCF. The Knights have had a strong season, but NC State just has more to play for and was playing better down the stretch. They should keep that going and pull off what most would consider an upset. This isn't an upset to me, but it will surprise many.
NC State 37 - UCF 30

Military Bowl
Cincinnati v. Virginia Tech
Dec. 27 1 PM ESPN
The Hokies and Bearcats had two common opponents, the Ohio State Buckeyes, and the East Carolina Pirates. Against East Carolina, Virginia Tech lost, but Cincinnati won. However, against Ohio State Cincinnati lost and Virginia Tech won. Both teams were inconsistent this season, with up and down performances all season long. Virginia Tech did have the more difficult schedule. One is playing for respect and a possible spot in a better conference maybe the Big 12 and the other is playing for Frank Beamer's job. This one should be interesting because the teams are so evenly matched. I think Cincinnati has slightly more motivation though trying to prove they belong with the big boys.
Cincinnati 24 - Virginia Tech 21

Hyundai Sun Bowl
Arizona State v. Duke
Dec. 27 2 PM CBS
Until both of these teams had some late losses, we were talking about each of these teams in the New Years Day Bowls. Duke in particular seemed destined for an Orange Bowl Bid after beating Georgia Tech on the road. However, the Blue Devils looked awful in November losing to Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Arizona State meanwhile followed a blowout win over Notre Dame by losing in Corvallis. The Sun Devils then closed out the season with a loss at Arizona. This match-up pits two really good teams with awful finishes. These teams should be in a better game, but this gives us a great matchup. Arizona has more talent and will be heavily favored, but their pass defense is horrific. If Duke can take advantage of that they should win. The Sun Devils also have a bit of quarterback controversy after a switch in the Arizona game. Duke has more motivation in this one and getting to 10 wins for that program is still huge. I like the upset in this one.
Duke 38 - Arizona State 33

Duck Commander Independence Bowl
Miami v. South Carolina
Dec. 27 3:30 PM ABC
This game has become somewhat controversial between two fanbases that want no part of playing in this game. Shreveport has been dissed as a city as a result and Tim Brando is not happy about that. The lack of fan excitement has got to make the company sponsoring this bowl and the city of Shreveport ticked off. Ya, these are two teams that expected to do much better, but all these teams are showing is a lack of dedication in their fanbases. South Carolina should be able to sell more tickets to this game and the fact that they don't kind of shows the arrogance of the SEC. If their team isn't as good, then they just pick up the conference banner and root for the top SEC team instead (usually Alabama) and talk about conference pride. How about you cheer on your own team that you said could win the SEC (and never has) and quit with the political BS. No motivation for South Carolina in this game, they are the weaker team, and Miami is trying to prove they are back. Miami should be able to prove something in this game and ACC teams should always be fired up against the SEC. I am excited to see this game for those reasons and because of the great company that is sponsoring this bad boy. Seeing the old ball coach finish with a losing record won't be something I shed any tears over as much as I despise Miami.
Miami 30 - South Carolina 17

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Boston College v. Penn State
Dec. 27 4:30 PM ESPN
People really underrate this Boston College team. In fact, they may be the most underrated team in the country. BC absolutely dominated USC in their match-up this season. These guys gave FSU a run for their money and won all the games they were supposed to win. This rebuilding job at Boston College is looking really good with how the team has played. Winning 8 games is a big step forward for this program and it should happen. Penn State does not have the resume or the talent of Boston College, but they do have motivation. This game is Penn State's first bowl since their bowl ban was lifted. That alone should have the Nittany Lions fired up, but in the end Boston College is too much.
Boston College 28 - Penn State 24

National University Holiday Bowl
Nebraska v. USC 
Dec. 27 8 PM ESPN
Nebraska curiously fired Bo Pelini and hired Mike Reilly so it would be difficult seeing them pull off the win over a better USC team. It remains to be seen how these Cornhuskers respond to the interim coach and that will be the biggest story in this one. However, they could respond great and still lose because USC simply has better players. This USC team that could build some momentum towards 2015 and a potential playoff berth next season. If they win this game, that momentum will help them in next season as they build for that excitement.
USC 35 - Nebraska 17

Autozone Liberty Bowl
Texas A & M v. West Virginia 
Dec. 29 2 PM ESPN
Texas A & M dodging Texas in a bowl game is a punk move. For that reason alone I am pulling for the Mountaineers (I probably would have anyway). This A & M team was a trendy pick by many early to win the SEC title after they beat South Carolina. We later found out that South Carolina just wasn't that good and A & M wasn't either. They now match-up with another 7-5 team in West Virginia. West Virginia meanwhile was pretty impressive this season and even notched a big win over #4 Baylor. They were in every game this year including a week 1 match-up with Alabama. Senior QB Clint Trickett looks to go out with a win as West Virginia should roll against the Aggies.
West Virginia 56 - Texas A & M 42

Russell Athletic Bowl
Oklahoma v. Clemson
Dec. 29 5:30 PM ESPN
I would pick Clemson big in this one, but DeShaun Watson will be playing with a torn ACL. He did the same against South Carolina, but Oklahoma is not South Carolina. The Sooners aren't allergic to defense like the Gamecocks. It is a very poor decision in my opinion for Clemson to play Watson as I think this guy has a bright future. This is a team that could win the ACC next year with a healthy Watson so I don't see risking that in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Playing games with an injury of this magnitude can bite the Tigers in the long term and possibly in this game as well. Oklahoma doesn't have much to play for and was very disappointing this season, but it's hard for me to see them coming out flat. That being said, the Tigers should still win.
Clemson 38 - Oklahoma 35

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Arkansas v. Texas 
Dec. 29 9 PM ESPN
Arkansas supposedly is the greatest 6-6 team ever and would win the majority of conferences in America. That is at least if you listen to SEC fans, or I guess SEC West fans now since they seem to have dropped the East...
The reality is that Arkansas is a good squad, but that the SEC West is highly overrated. That being said, Texas isn't exactly setting the world on fire this season. Their one common opponent in Texas Tech was beaten by 21 points by a visiting Texas and by 21 points by a visiting Arkansas. It is crazy that the common opponent was beaten by the same margin by both teams. That should show you about how evenly matched these teams are. The difference in this match-up has to be coaching. Coaches don't get much better than Charlie Strong and therefore you have to give the edge to Texas, This team likely is sick of the SEC as well from the overhype to A & M dodging them. No way they don't come out ready to play against the SEC.
Texas 30 - Arkansas 24

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
LSU v. Notre Dame
Dec. 30 3 PM ESPN
You can't like the way the Irish closed the season or the health of this team that has been decimated defensively by injuries. That would spell trouble against any team, but against a very talented LSU team it is a nightmare. LSU wants to make sure to put on a show with the rumors of Miles to Michigan ramping up again. However, if Miles does bolt for Michigan prior to this game it changes the outlook. Assuming things stay the same, LSU wins big.
LSU 28 - Notre Dame 10

Belk Bowl
Georgia v. Louisville
Dec. 30 6:30 PM ESPN
This game features the player that I like to watch the most in the country (not on the Noles), Gerod Holliman. He is a physical beast that will be making an impact on Sundays for years. It is a good opportunity to watch him and the rest of a surprising loaded Louisville roster. They get to match up with a loaded Georgia roster. The Belk Bowl will have a ton of talent out there. Louisville though is underrated and disrespected. I also don't think Georgia cares about this game at all. Those factors favor Louisville in a big way. Expect the Cards to look very impressive on December 30.
Louisville 35 - Georgia 21

Foster Farms Bowl
Maryland v. Stanford
Dec. 30 10 PM ESPN
Stanford had a disappointing year, but I don't think many people expect Maryland to hang with them. Stanford is clearly the better team with clearly the better coach. If Maryland pulls off the upset I will be shocked. Nothing else to say here, Stanford big.
Stanford 38 - Maryland 13

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Ole Miss v. TCU
Dec. 31 12:30 PM ESPN
This game will just be awesome. I am really curious what happens in this game. You have a great team in Co-Big 12 champ TCU who is playing the only team that knocked off Alabama. Both teams are trying to prove they belong with the nation's elite. Both looking to make strides towards a playoff run next year. There is no team that will come out as motivated as TCU after dropping out of the Top 4 while winning by 52 in its last game. These guys are good and while Ole Miss is too, I think TCU is just a tad better. Expect a shootout that eventually goes TCU's way.
TCU 63 - Ole Miss 59

Vizio Fiesta Bowl
Boise State v. Arizona 
Dec. 31 4:00 PM ESPN
Boise State is back in the game where they shocked the nation 8 years ago. However, unlike that Oklahoma team, this Arizona team is motivated. They want to erase that embarrassment of the Pac-12 championship. Arizona also wants to have their best season since 1998 and prove they are a threat in the national championship race next season. These guys want to announce their presence with authority and will dismantle the Broncos. The Wildcats are simply better than Boise and look to prove it in the Fiesta Bowl.
Arizona 45 - Boise State 33

Capital One Orange Bowl
Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State
Dec. 31 8 PM ESPN

If this game was on a normal week with one week to prepare, I would definitely take Georgia Tech against Mississippi State. With multiple weeks to prepare though, it is a pretty even match-up. Georgia Tech's strengths do not lineup perfectly with Mississippi State's glaring weakness. That weakness in their secondary if exploited will lead to a sure win for the Jackets. Can they pass the ball though? Georgia Tech's attack doesn't lead to an ability to throw it. However, their running attack is so good that they might not need to pass to win. This game is very intriguing because it will be interesting to see if GT goes after that weakness or they just go with their normal gameplan. I know they will mostly run the ball, but that secondary is so bad. If Mississippi State had a secondary they could have easily won it all. As it stands, we will see what happens, but I think the Jackets pull it out.
Georgia Tech 25 - Mississippi State 21

Outback Bowl
Auburn v. Wisconsin
Jan. 1 NOON ESPN2
Auburn is the better team and they have the harder offense to stop. However, Wisconsin will be coached in this game by Barry Alvarez and they are going to be wanting to wipe out the embarrassment of their last game. The Alvarez factor will lead to victory over the Tigers who have been distracted by the Muschamp hiring. That being said nobody in Auburn will care because they will be a favorite to win it all next year due to the hiring. For this game though Wisconsin has a lot more motivation and will pull it out.
Wisconsin 28 - Auburn 24

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Michigan State v. Baylor
Jan. 1 12:30 PM ESPN
TCU and Baylor are quite upset that they were left out of the playoff. Having beaten TCU, Baylor has a legitimate gripe. These guys should have more motivation than anybody else not in the playoff. However, "motivation doesn't win games, execution does." The Baylor Bears will have to be focused an execute and I think they pull it off. They are better than Michigan State is and want to prove it. Look for Baylor to win here.
Baylor 38 - Michigan State 30

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

Missouri v. Minnesota
Jan. 1 1 PM ABC
Missouri already lost to a Big 10 team they had no business losing to. It is unlikely to happen again. Missouri is better than Minnesota, but they were better than Indiana and lost at home. This will be closer than most will predict because Minnesota is closer to Missouri than most think. However, at the end of the day Missouri is the better team. The Tigers also have no desire to end on a two game losing streak or to lose to two big 10 teams.
Missouri 35 - Minnesota 31

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Houston v. Pittsburgh
Jan. 2 Noon ESPN
We will talk about my preseason prediction on another date, but it is safe to say I was off on Pitt. I picked Pitt to win 10 games and win the ACC Atlantic and they won 6 and finished 4th. However, they did close with a win at Miami and did show flashes of what I was predicting before the season. Losing their coach to Wisconsin, I don't see Pittsburgh showing that potential in a bowl game though. They will likely be more focused on their coach of the future than this January match-up with Houston and it will show on the field. My preseason ACC Atlantic pick will finish with a losing record...
Yes, I realize that Houston is in the same position technically, but they have already named an interim man and a new coach. Pittsburgh's head man is still in discussions with Wisconsin and is not devoting all of his time to this game. The players also have no idea who their new coach is. While the situation is similar it is not 100% the same and the Houston players should have more of a comfort level with the situation at hand.
Houston 27 - Pittsburgh 20

TaxSlayer Bowl
Iowa v. Tennessee
Jan. 2 3:20 PM ESPN

These are two teams that were very up and down this year. 
Is Iowa the team that won at Pitt and took Nebraska and Wisconsin to the brink, or are they the team that dropped a home game to in-state rival Iowa State?
Is Tennessee the team that pummeled Utah State or the team that lost at home to a Florida team with no offense and lost to every other meaningful opponent?
These teams both disappointed in my eyes although that Utah State win was impressive. The difference in this one is that Tennessee while disappointing, seems to be trending upwards and has the more impressive win. Tennessee also hasn't appeared in a bowl game since 2010 which should have them be ready to play in this one.
Tennessee 27 - Iowa 17

Valero Alamo Bowl
Kansas State v. UCLA
Jan. 2 6:45 PM ESPN
UCLA came into this season with so much hype. I was riding that bandwagon and picked them to make the college football playoff. I also picked Brett Hundley to win the Heisman and remain on that bandwagon. In this match-up of teams that each finished 3rd in their conference I pick UCLA because of Hundley. He is the best player on the field and should be looking to prove his value heading into the 2015 NFL Draft. Although he could be back to accomplish what he didn't this year following his regression from 2014. Either way, I expect a big game from Hundley.
UCLA 49 - Kansas State 45

TicketCity Cactus Bowl
Washington v. Oklahoma State
Jan. 2 10:15 PM ESPN

I firmly believe that Oklahoma State is the better team in this match-up. However, Oklahoma State has been here before and likely doesn't care as much about this game. They wouldn't even be bowl eligible if it wasn't for Tyreek Hill either. That individual was dismissed from the Oklahoma State team following his arrest. With that fact and the fact that this team just seems gassed, it is difficult to see them beating a hungry Washington team.
Washington 35 - Oklahoma State 21

Birmingham Bowl
East Carolina v. Florida
Jan. 3 1 PM ESPN

Florida's defense is outstanding, but their offense isn't up to par. ECU is the opposite of that with a solid offense and a lackluster D. We got strength on strength with two pretty evenly matched teams. Florida does have more talent than East Carolina, but East Carolina is desperate for respect from the big teams. They also have 4 wins over Power 5 teams the last two seasons. Florida hasn't won a bowl game since 2011 though and the Gators likely will want to impress new coach Jim McElwain. I am conflicted on what I think will happen in this one, but I think Florida pulls it out.
Florida 17 - East Carolina 14

GoDaddy Bowl
Toledo v. Arkansas State
Jan. 4 9 PM ESPN
 This is Arkansas State's 4th straight trip to Mobile. Toledo wasn't in a bowl last year. Toledo should care more than Arkansas State and can pull off the win. This game really should not be played after New Years. It simply is not an enticing game, but I'm going with Toledo.
Toledo 24 - Arkansas State 21

My playoff predictions are coming too. However, with all of this in one post and these games fast approaching, I thought I would put the playoff analysis in a different post since that will go much more in depth. Happy Bowl Season everyone! If my picks win you money do not hesitate to share...

-Noland

No comments:

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...