I decided to break the ballot into 5 categories so it is easier to cast my imaginary ballot. This is how I think many guys do vote.
Category 1: Guys that just straight up don't belong
1) Matt Stairs
dude was mostly a pinch hitter
2) Freddy Sanchez
3) Pat Burrell
4) Arthur Rhodes
One of my personal favorite players, but not a Hall of Famer. He gets a longer look though because of the longetivity which was amazing. Above Average for a long time is not a Hall of Famer though.
5) Orlando Cabrera
6) Casey Blake
7) Jason Varitek
I'm sure some Boston fans would try to argue, but not even close.
8) Carlos Guillen
Had a few really good years, but again not close
9) Melvin More
One of my all-time favorite Orioles and a candidate for the Oriole Hall of Fame, but not the baseball Hall of Fame. Deserves more of a look than 1-8, but simply not a Hall of Fame player.
10) Edgar Renteria
Played SS and had a GW hit of a World Series. Not Hall of Fame caliber, but may get a few votes.
11) Tim Wakefield
Not a Hall of Famer, but very consistent
12) Derek Lee
We are getting closer and he was a really strong player with some phenomenal years, but not quite there in my opinion.
13) JD Drew
Always dogged by people that think he never gave 100%, but very productive career. Not a Hall of Fame player, but I love the guy. I would have loved to have that bat in Camden Yards. Drew will always be one of my personal favorites for what he did for FSU.
Category 2: The known cheaters of guys that could belong
1) Mike Cameron
WIll not make it, but should have gotten a lot longer look than he will. The dude was very solid for a number of seasons. Suspended for steroids which erases the need to give him a longer look. Caught cheating and should be eliminated from consideration.
2) Manny Ramirez
One of the greatest hitters of all-time, but suspended multiple times for PED usage.
3) Sammy Sosa
I can't imagine finding anyone that thinks Sosa did not use PEDs and he has been caught corking his bat including to win the HR derby which has led to his prestige.
4) Gary Sheffield
Has admitted steroid use. Was an absolute stud, but shouldn't make it due to steroids. How many of those 509 home runs were aided.
5) Barry Bonds
The greatest position player ever and would have made it easily without steroids, but he cheated and should be disqualified for that cheating. I really understand people that vote him and Clemens in anyway, but I cannot do it personally because he cheated.
6) Roger Clemens
See Barry Bonds, but change position player to pitcher. Clemens was the most obvious cheater to me because of his age and throwing high 90s heat into 40. Come on!!!
Category 3: The suspected cheaters
1) Magglio Ordonez
Here is a perfect example for why to seperate into categories. Was absolutely incredible there for a few years, but too short of a timeframe to make it into the Hall of Fame. However, had he used drugs to try to stay healthy longer, could have easily made it and produced better numbers. A prime example of why the cheaters should be left out if he is left out. That being said, was named in Canseco's 2nd book so he too could be guilty.
2) Ivan Rodriguez
One of my personal favorite players, but there have been reports of PED usage. Named by Jose Canseco in his book and there are a lot of rumors. So while he is one of my favorites from my childhood and while he may be the greatest catcher of all-time, I am okay with waiting. It seems there is a lot more to find out here. He will remain on the ballot. While we should not punish him, we can give it time to sort out.
3) Jeff Kent
I like Kent and think he should receive the benefit of the doubt, but the talk has been there. I personally would not include him because he was a liability defensively, but he is a legitimate candidate. I like the guy and maybe he could get in one day.
4) Curt Schilling
Most of the controversy surrounding Schilling is self imposed. He himself said Red Sox officials urged him to consider PED use. Most of it seems suspect and I do not believe he did any, but there is some smoke there with Schilling. He is a borderline guy that I have just off.
5) Jeff Bagwell
There is some smoke with Bagwell and PEDS, but he has been on the ballot for 7 years. If they haveb't found anything yet, they are unlikely to find anything. We have to give him the benefit of the doubt and vote him in unless there are enough guys over the line that have 0 controversy.
Category 4: The borderline guys that have no controversy
1) Jorge Posada
Will look more at Posada in future years, but not quite enough production from me. I do consider Posada a strong candidate though and believe him staying clean should hold some importance.
2) Billy Wagner
I have Wagner as in. He should be in. Closer is a position and he was one of the best ever. A truly excellent closer for years. He is in trouble, but could gain steam as advanced metrics guys get an increasing say.
3) Fred McGriff
This is the one that gets to me and a guy that is killed by the steroid era. He hit 493 home runs. He is not tainted. McGriff drove in 1550. Yet you want to punish him because some other guys inflated the numbers of the era?
McGriff was not inflating the numbers, he was producing and doing it clean. Maybe he should be on the slam dunk side, because he certainly is a Hall of Fame player. However, he is hovering around 20% of the vote and seems to be losing traction.
4) Lee Smith
Already seeing what was written about Wagner, it is pretty easy to see why I think Smith is a legit candidate. Smith had 478 career saves and was the all-time leader before some Hoffman guy came around. He was one of the first closers to be used in the way they are today and excelled at it. Certainly worthy, but likely falls short.
5) Edgar Martinez
I think Martinez should be considered because he is perhaps the greatest DH ever. That being said he should not be considered over a comparable player that played a position. He should be considered over those he was a better hitter than. I'd vote him in at the bottom of my ballot as the 10th guy, but understand why some don't.
This group really needs to get bonus points for staying clean and above controversy in an era filled with it. If voters want to take a stand, they can elevate these players above their suspected counterparts.
Category 5: The slam dunks
Every year there are some slam dunks that you absolutely must vote for and they have strong character. To me there are 5 slam dunk guys on this ballot.
1) Tim Raines
It seems Tim Raines will finally get into the Hall of Fame this year. How he hasn't been considered a slam dunk to this point is amazing to me. Raines is the 2nd greatest leadoff hitter of all-time, I guess he is hurt because he played in the same generation as the best. Raines was a 5 tool player and honestly was a better player than Craig Biggio who was a slam dunk Hall of Famer in his own right. Luckily, he seems a lock to be included this year.
2) Vladimir Guerrero
Best player on his team everywhere he went (except Baltimore late in his career). Best bad ball hitter ever. Rocket arm. 5 tools. Amazing baseball player.
People consider Edgar Martinez a borderline Hall of Famer and he is. Martinez was one of the best of his generation, but Martinez was a DH. Walker is a 5 tool player that won 5 legitimate gold gloves. His arm rivaled Guerrero. I think people forget just how good Larry Walker was. He was/is an all-time great. Forget that he played in Colorado. His numbers were nearly as good on the road. He also had no controversy in a very controversial time and was a true 5 tool guy.
4) Mike Mussina
The highest career WAR of any eligible player besides Bonds and Clemens. 270 wins and an ERA under 4 playing his entire career in the AL East when the AL East was perhaps at its best. He pitched against the Yankee dynasty and was successful. Not to mention that when he left the Orioles, their incompetent run of finishing under .500 started. The team fell apart when he left and was ultra competitive while he was with the team.
5) Trevor Hoffman
I don't care what you feel about the stat, 601 career saves is 601 career saves. Hoffman deserves in. I believe that he will get in sometime soon. Whether it be this year, next year, or a few years from now.
It is important to include those last 5 first and go from there.
Here is my full ballot of who gets my vote
1) Tim Raines
2) Vlad
3) Larry Walker
4) Mike Mussina
5) Trevor Hoffman
6) Billy Wagner
7) Lee Smith
8) Fred McGriff
9) Edgar Martinez
10) Jeff Bagwell
I expect Bagwell, Raines, Vlad, and Hoffman to get in and deservedly so. The rest of us can get into this talk again next year. Should be interesting.
Best of luck to all of the deserving candidates.
-Noland
