Looking Back @ Football Predictions 2015

It is important for anybody who makes predictions to go back and truly assess how they did. In this post, I look to do just that for the past football season 2015-2016, before making new predictions for this year. Some of these predictions were pretty accurate, but some were horrifically bad. This seeks to give us some perspective on what I have gotten right and wrong before any predictions are made for the 2016-2017 season. I had four prediction pages for last football season. Last year I had an ACC preview, a preview for the rest of the country, an NFL preview, and a preview of Noles in training camps. Each of those will be looked at in great detail on this post.

Let's start with the Noles in training camps post. This post was the least predicting out of these posts, but was still informative and had some predictions in there. I said that it was put up or shut up time for EJ Manuel in Buffalo and that it was about time for him to win the job. I may have picked him to win Super Bowl MVP in another post (embarassed face) which was by far my worst prediction. Manuel of course was beaten out by Tyrod Taylor and even I think the lofty expectations I (and the Bills) had for him will never be fulfilled at this point. I was too much of a homer in the case of EJ. I will continue to root for the guy though. Sticking with the Bills, injuries forced Karlos Williams into the starting lineup and he exceeded my expectations. This guy did much better than anticipated and had a great rookie season. Another error in this post was not being bullish enough about Devonta Freeman, who ended up in the MVP conversation. He blew everyone away. Finally, Kelvin Benjamin did not start because of the ACL injury, but looks to be strong heading into this season. Everything else in this post is 100% accurate on where they were heading into the 2015-2016 season. You could write pretty much the same stuff for each player heading into 2016-2017, but you will need to include some new teams.

Now onto the NFL season predictions. As bad as the Bills Super Bowl pick was and subsequent EJ Manuel pick as described above, I actually hit on a lot here. You have to forgive me some as well, because the Bills pick was an opportunity pick based partially on the expected suspension of Tom Brady. That suspension was overturned after these selections. I had the Cardinals and Texans winning their respective divisions when few others did. I also had the Cardinals going all the way to the Super Bowl, which possibly could have happened without the Tyrann Mathieu injury. They still made the NFC Championship as I predicted. Three of my bold predictions were right in that Marcus Marriota did not start every game due to injury, the Titans would finish with the #1 pick, and Jameis Winston would be rookie of the year. I was a little too bullish record wise on the Bucs though who I gave 5 extra wins. The Ravens was another big miss for me as they too missed the playoffs. My biggest miss, was probably my continued hope for Sam Bradford. I had him leading the Eagles to a division title and an NFC Championship Game appearance and he again came up short on my expectations. Take out those bullish predictions for Bradford and Manuel and these predictions look solid. Will not make that mistake again for those two. This time I will hope to be wrong in their favor for once. Just keep rooting for the good injury prone guys to catch a break.

The NCAA preview went considerably better for me than the NFL did. I got 2 of the 4 playoff teams correct, including going against the grain and picking Michigan State to win the Big 10 over Ohio State. Nearly everyone had the Buckeyes at least making the playoff while I said the pressure to repeat would eventually catch up to the talented Buckeyes. Another favorite though, TCU, is another team I had in the playoff and they fell short. My worst prediction in here was Arizona winning it all. Yikes! So maybe not so great with the picks. The darkhorses I had were all pretty weak too, especially Georgia Tech, but more on that later.
On the Heisman trophy front, I had weak darkhorses, but my main guys were threats for at least a while other than the injured Wright. The eventual winner, Derrick Henry, was my #3 contender coming into the season. Henry was one of four offensive All-Americans I hit on (using the AP list), the other three were Spencer Drango, Jack Allen and Landon Turner. I hit on three defensive players in A'Shawn Robinson, Jaylen Smith, and Vernon Hargreaves. These numbers were pretty low as I look to hit on half of the picks this upcoming season.

Finally, is the ACC preview I did. I thought it would be interesting to do a preview of the conference FSU is in, and that proved to be true. It comes as no surprise that the Seminoles were my pick to win the conference. That was wrong, but I did say the biggest threats in conference to that happening were Georgia Tech and Clemson. The only regular season losses for FSU were to Georgia Tech and Clemson. Those Jackets really only showed up for the FSU game though unfortunately for them and the conference. Clemson had a very impressive season winning the conference and helping Dabo Swinney to win coach of the year over the ever-deserving Jimbo Fisher. I stated that Jalen Ramsey was the most talented player in the conference and that proved true as he was the #1 player on many teams draft boards a few weeks ago. Ramsey was the #5 overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Now, for how accurate I was picking the all-conference team....
Between not knowing if Dalvin Cook would be eligible and James Connor's injury, I missed on the RBs, but hit on many other positions. I hit on 4 of 11 on the offensive side. Correctly selecting Matt Skura, Landon Turner, Roderick Johnson, and Artavis Scott. On defense I hit on 3 of 11, correctly selecting Jalen Ramsey, Nile Lawrence-Stample, and Stephen Daniels. Some injuries hurt me in other spots including the FSU LB core and Kendall Fuller. The 1st team specialist was also correct as I selected the automatic, Roberto Aguayo. Every one of my selections that was not injured made one of the 3 all conference teams with the exception of Jacoby Brisett, Derwin James and George Campbell, so there is that. My worst selection was certainly Campbell as he barely saw the field in 2015. 8 people correctly selected on the 1st team All-ACC is a number that will improve for 2016.

Stay tuned for more takes on the latest news in sports and of course, more predictions....

-Noland

Complete NFL Draft Reaction

This was one of the most surprising drafts in recent memory. A lot of memorable selections here. I loved every minute. Here are some of my big reactions.

5 Best Picks of the Draft

5. Christian Westerman   OG   Cincinnati Bengals  5(161)
I thought this guy was really underrated and has a great chance to start for the Bengals. Westerman provides terrific value in the 5th round.

4. Sheldon Day    DT   Jacksonville Jaguars  4(103)
Going into day 3 of the draft, Sheldon Day was the best available player. The Jaguars snatched him up without hesitation and got their 4th starter in this draft. Day will start and contribute this year for Jacksonville.

3. Devontae Booker  RB   Denver Broncos  4(136)
The second rated runningback in round 4. Sign me up for that. Booker will be starting for the Broncos at some point this season. He will be starting and getting a ton of yardage.

2. Kendall Fuller   CB    Washington Redskins  3(84)
Speaking of 2nd rated player at his position, Kendall Fuller was my #2 corner this season. He was an absolute stud and without injury concerns is a bona fide 1st rounder. The Redskins have the starters in place to bring him along slowly and he will make an impact when he is ready. NFL bloodlines don't hurt either and the Fullers have quite a few successful defensive backs in their family. It is quite possible that Kendall ends up the best of that entire bunch.

1. Myles Jack     LB    Jacksonville Jaguars    2(36)
Nobody could have predicted that the Jaguars would receive the best two players in the draft. That is, because even with the injury, it seemed Myles Jack would not be there in Round 2. When Jack was there, the Jaguars scooped him up. This guy has superstar written all over him and the Jaguars got a major steal in this selection.

5 Worst Picks of the Draft

5. Juston Burris     CB    New York Jets    4(118)
Bottom line is that Burris is not even a guarantee to make the roster. He has very little shot at contributing other than special teams. He showed little to no ability to contribute at the next level at NC State. Why the Jets burnt a 4th rounder on a guy that will be solely a special teams player is surprising. Especially, since he likely won't even be good at that.

4. Antonio Morrison   ILB    Indianapolis Colts  4(125)
Many people judge others for how they treat animals. So what do we think of Antonio Morrison? This guy has barked at police dogs and been arrested on multiple occasions. He is a character concern for a team that used to take these types of individuals off the draft board. Oh, and he doesn't really translate into an NFL player skills wise either.
3. Kevin Byard   S    Tennessee Titans     3(64)
I guess this was a hometown pick? I am really struggling to find the rationale on this one. A safety with no cover skills in the 3rd round for a team that needs a lot of holes filled. Really perplexing.

2. Derrick Henry       RB      Tennessee Titans     2(45)
The Titans just traded for DeMarco Murray in the offseason. They acquired the versatile back and it is surprising for them to go runningback here again. Especially one with a lot of wear and tear that got the majority of his yardage behind a tremendous offensive line. This team has so many needs that this pick was surprising. They went RB here when the second best RB stayed on the board until late in Round 4. They reached for Henry just because of the Heisman.

1. Christian Hackenburg   QB   New York Jets   2(51)
Out of the last 4 drafts, the Jets have twice taken a QB in Round 2 and took one in Round 4 last year. These guys stay drafting terrible quarterbacks with little to no chance of success in the pros. This selection was no different. I do not see any chance of Christian Hackenburg being a successful starting QB in the NFL. This selection of Hackenburg here is mind boggling. If you are going to take a QB early, at least take a good QB. The thing here is the Jets have solid players in place and blowing this pick could be the difference in this team missing the playoffs. Just a poor selection.

5 Best Team Drafts

5. Minnesota Vikings

I believe that Laquon Treadwell was the best receiver in this draft and the Vikings got him at 26. They then picked up a corner capable of starting right away in round 2. Every selection this team made had purpose and meaning. I really loved the Kentrell Brothers pick.

4. Cincinnatti Bengals
All 5 of their top picks in this draft will compete for starting jobs. When you think about that, it is pretty incredible. A playoff team that drafted well enough to have 5 players openly competing for starting jobs. I really like the William Jackson pick he was the 2nd best healthy corner in this draft. Tyler Boyd will help in the return game in addition to his receiving skills. I quite admired his receiving skills while he was at Pittsburgh.

3. Washington Redskins
The Redskins had the 2nd best pick of the draft when they drafted Kendall Fuller in the 3rd round. Getting the 2nd best corner in the draft at that point is a major coup for the Skins. I am not very concerned about Fuller's injury. Sua Cravens and Josh Doctson were also very strong selections for DC. Not as fond of the rest of their draft, but the top 3 selections they made are far better than any outside of Jacksonville. Those 3 will be major contributors for the Burgandy and Gold and give the Skins a ton of flexibility. Each player will be loved in Washington!
Washington also had a strong selection late in QB Nate Sudfeld out of Indiana. While they didn't need a QB at that point, I thought he posed tremendous value in Round 6. He was my 4th rated QB in this draft.

2. Cleveland Browns
The Browns accumulated a ton of picks and did not waste them. They got 4 starters with their first four picks. More importantly though, they didn't reach for anyone and let the draft come to them for the 1st time ever. With each pick, it seems the Browns finally took the top player on their board each time.The best news of this draft though is that they got more extra picks in the future. The Browns finally seem to be on the right path.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Hands down the best draft and it is not even close. The Jaguars managed to get the top player at each stage of the draft. With their first pick, they got the best player in the draft in Jaylen Ramsey. Day 2 comes along and they nab the 2nd best player in the entire draft in Myles Jack. Heading into Day 3, the best available player is Sheldon Day and the Jaguars get him. They got 4 bona-fide major contributors. At least two of them are all-pro level guys. This draft could not have gone any better for the Jaguars.

5 Worst Team Drafts

The Miami Dolphins could easily top this list if any drama continues with Laremy Tunsil, but the drama seems to have worked in their favor. They got easily the best tackle in the draft at 13 because of it. Now, they just need to hope he keeps his nose clean.

5. Houston Texans
The Texans reached on Fuller and didn't do much else. Not a player I love in their entire draft. Just very unspectacular.
4. Tennessee Titans
They get some points for acquiring so many picks, but have very little to show for that. Add in that they had my second and third worst picks of the entire draft and it is easy to see why I think these guys had a hard time. Tennessee got at least one starter though in the tackle, Conklin. The selection irratated a better tackle though in Taylor Lewan. This organization is just a dumpster fire.

3. Philadelphia Eagles
Like the Rams, the Eagles gave up too much to move up to #2 to get Wentz. The plus side for Philadelphia is that I think Wentz will be a better pro than Goff. The issue with Wentz is that he will take some time. Not the fanbase to be patient on their players. These characters booed Wentz when he arrived at the airport. Hahahaha, you stay classy Philly fans.

2. New York Jets
The Jets could easily be a playoff contender this year. They had some solid pieces. You would think the Jets would pick players that could help them win right now! The only player they got that will immediately contribute was linebacker Darron Lee and there were better players than him on the board still when he was selected in Round 1. Their biggest need was at offensive tackle and that was not upgraded through this draft. Hackenburg was about as stupid a pick as I can imagine given the circumstances of the selection.

1. Los Angeles Rams
Simply gave up too much to go to 1 and move up for Goff who I personally am not a big believer in. If Goff pans out than this draft will look much better. Right now it looks awful as this team got nothing else of value.

Grading the Buccaneers Draft

Round 1(11) Vernon Hargreaves   CB            C-

Round 2 (39) Noah Spence             DE            A      

Round 2 (59) Roberto Aguayo       PK            C
Round 4 (108) Ryan Smith             DB            B
Round 5 (148) Caleb Benenoch      OT           A-
Round 6 (183) Devante Bond         OLB         C-
Round 6 (197) Dan Vitale                FB           A

Overall Grade B+
This was never meant to be as great as last year's draft. Last year the Buccaneers got 4 quality starters with their first 4 picks. Two of those 4 had Pro Bowl level seasons. This year though, the Buccaneers can once again claim 4 quality players that will likely start in some fashion. Given, one of those players is a kicker. Their 5th selection could also be a starter though, potentially bumping that number up to 5 and greatly increasing the rating of this draft. I think this is especially true if they kick him inside. Add in a starting fullback and the numbers go from 4 potential starters to 6. A great draft in anyones book.
People will slam the Aguayo trade up, but I don't mind it and it is not just the homer in me. When you get a chance to select the best kicker in college football history, it is hard to place a value on that. Especially for a team that struggled mightily in the kicking game last year. Connor Barth was fine when he took over for Brindza, but management clearly doesn't think he has "it" because they have cut him multiple times already. Now, they had a chance to eliminate the kicking issue forever and they did it. Was it too early? Probably, but this team wanted the issue solved and they did it. The problem is that there was a lot of quality still on the board in spots of need.
I dislike the Hargreaves pick the more I see it, especially seeing that Kendall Fuller went in Round 3. That being said, he should be fine when not matched up with bigger, more physical receivers. He has all the tools, so hopefully he can justify the high selection.

Most Surprising Undrafted Player

Nile Lawrence-Stample    DT    Florida State

Stample had he come out early last year would have been selected. It was still incredibly surprising to see him go undrafted because of the time of player he was. The thing working against Stample is that he is a 2 down player and teams seem to be moving away from that. Several other players in that boat slipped very far in this draft. Still, even with those factors and with him being in a very deep draft at his position, I thought for sure he would be selected. He ended up signing as an undrafted free agent with the Browns.

Analyzing Where the Seminoles Ended Up

There were only two Seminoles selected. This was the lowest total since 2009 and quite different from the mass selections the past few years. The three years prior to this current season, FSU had 29 players selected to the NFL draft.

Jalen Ramsey to Jacksonville Round 1 (5)
The Jaguars will be a trendy pick to make the playoffs this season and Jalen Ramsey is a big part of that. Ramsey is a freak athlete and was the best player in the draft. He enters a great situation and will be an immediate starter for Jacksonville.

Roberto Aguayo to Tampa Round 2 (59)
The scrutiny will be high for this one, but it was expected that Aguayo would be the highest selection for a kicker in quite some time. The most accurate kicker in college football history does not come along very often. In this case he goes to Tampa who is desperate for help in the kicking game. He is also reunited with Jameis Winston.

Several Noles signed as undrafted free agents which we will get into closer to training camp.

Stay tuned for my breakdown of my own stories from last football season

-Noland